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March 2023


Rjay
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32 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Yes this place is asleep.  I posted this in the NE forum.  Good hit and good to see some op runs showing this kind thing again.image.thumb.png.654dff76920b930b852b32f0e2f695d6.png

I think the fact the models are so all over the place and change run to run makes it hard to get too excited yet. Certainly there is big potential in the next week or so but hard to have high confidence in anything right now. 

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I think the fact the models are so all over the place and change run to run makes it hard to get too excited yet. Certainly there is big potential in the next week or so but hard to have high confidence in anything right now. 

Also people aren't gonna be as excited about GFS showing a big hit since it's such a terrible model. Euro or CMC showing a big hit would get people more excited. No question there is significant potential though. Mid March has looked good for awhile, and I think there's a decent chance that one of the threats will pan out. 

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

Also people aren't gonna be as excited about GFS showing a big hit since it's such a terrible model. Euro or CMC showing a big hit would get people more excited. No question there is significant potential though. Mid March has looked good for awhile, and I think there's a decent chance that one of the threats will pan out. 

Is it a terrible model tho?? It's been schooling the Euro this winter

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11 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Slow that down about 6 hours would ya please. I'll be driving back from Brockport on Saturday, gotta pick up the kid at school. 

this time ( just like last time ) I cant be of any help with the commute,,,,,good luck safe travels,,,,can anyone tell us IF the MJO is in 7 or has it finally gotten into 8 ? 

 

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Morning thoughts…

Snow will end and the clouds will yield to sunshine. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 49°

Somewhat cooler than normal to near seasonable readings will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.0°; 15-Year: 48.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.6°; 15-Year: 49.9°

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30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

NWS Upton is not buying any snow for Saturday. They are calling for rain even up here in Rockland County. No cold air

That's why we need the 2nd storm to be the one that hits. The first is coming in during a bad air mass (unless it's a bomb).

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The next 8 days are averaging      39degs.(33/45) or -3/-4.

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today:    43-45, wind nw.-breezy, partial clearing, 30 tomorrow AM.

Big Storm---Now New Date:     The EURO is becoming an Ass Wipe of a model.

1678147200-OrzXwmV2jnc.png

35*(73%RH) here at 6am, snow flurries, streets wet, car tops white{was 34 at 5:30am and 47 back at midnight}     40* at 10am.     42* at 11am.        43* at 1pm.       Reached 47* at 3pm.       40* at 6pm.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I doubt any of them work out to be honest. It feels like we're just chasing our own tail at this point. 

It may be the case. We have had a lot of these types of winters in the past where it seems like everything goes against us (pretty much 1970 through 1999 save about 5 winters).

However it's boring to not track the systems.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

It may be the case. We have had a lot of these types of winters in the past where it seems like everything goes against us (pretty much 1970 through 1999 save about 5 winters).

However it's boring to not track the systems.

Yeah you're not going to get a winter savior in mid March. When things are bad they usually stay bad. 

Every day that a threat is delayed makes it that much more unlikely to occur. Time is running out. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah you're not going to get a winter savior in mid March. When things are bad they usually stay bad. 

Every day that a threat is delayed makes it that much more unlikely to occur. Time is running out. 

In my local I have till April first but this season may be the worst in history.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

NWS Upton is not buying any snow for Saturday. They are calling for rain even up here in Rockland County. No cold air

Thus, this looks to be a mainly rain event with a rain/snow mix
possible on the backside Saturday night.

Lol

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

NWS Upton is not buying any snow for Saturday. They are calling for rain even up here in Rockland County. No cold air

The NWS likes to be, for good reason, as cautious as possible with their forecasts, especially this far out with nothing close to model consensus. The cold air is certainly an issue, but it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. We aren’t the NWS. This weekend and next weekend are our bests shots for a moderate snowfall this year, but it is far from a sure thing. 

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