March 2023

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

That's not really a hugger. 

Given the Euro solution we can probably rule out a cutter. 

[gravitylover]

57 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The GEFS is as perfect as it can get.

Slow that down about 6 hours would ya please. I'll be driving back from Brockport on Saturday, gotta pick up the kid at school. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Was 1/29/22 all over the place In terms of OP runs at similar range? I remember tracking it with you guys very well but the day to day changes are all a blur now. I remember it being a nail biter though, IIRC mainly due to phasing interactions out west. But I def remember large shifts and the GFS I think almost near completely losing the storm into short range. Not predictive at all or has any bearing on right now, was just thinking about it. 

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Was 1/29/22 all over the place In terms of OP runs at similar range? I remember tracking it with you guys very well but the day to day changes are all a blur now. I remember it being a nail biter though, IIRC mainly due to phasing interactions out west. But I def remember large shifts and the GFS I think almost near completely losing the storm into short range. Not predictive at all or has any bearing on right now, was just thinking about it. 

It centered on impacts over E MA 5 days out or so and the question was always how far west the heavy snow could get. Very much like Jan 2015. The heavy snow edged west enough to get most of Suffolk County but couldn’t get the final 50 miles into NYC. And there was a problem with convective lows firing east of the main low that didn’t allow it to spread snow far enough west-they stole energy from the main coastal low. 

[Winterweatherlover]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Given the Euro solution we can probably rule out a cutter. 

Yea suppression is more likely than a cutter with the first storm. Suppression for storm 1 shouldn't be terrible as it could pave the way for storm 2 as the Euro is showing.   What we seem to absolutely not want is an amped up rainstorm for storm 1.    

[EastonSN+]

Euro squishes the first event south then on the 14th a larger event takes place, gives us 1 to 4 then destroys easter NE with feet of snow. Some of this is from the clipper, you can see where that is.

[mannynyc]

Ensembles look good. Not everything is going to be a hit this far out. We just want the signal for a strong coastal storm.

[Franklin0529]

4 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Ensembles look good. Not everything is going to be a hit this far out. We just want the signal for a strong coastal storm.

Looks really good. Some bombs in there 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah I’m pretty content at the moment. My only main concern are the thermals with respect to my home location, but that will hopefully be less of an issue closer to the immediate metro and for points north and east of there. 

[EastonSN+]

GEPS is more suppressed but still good for southern half of the forum. It has multiple threats throughout the run.

[snowman19]

It centered on impacts over E MA 5 days out or so and the question was always how far west the heavy snow could get. Very much like Jan 2015. The heavy snow edged west enough to get most of Suffolk County but couldn’t get the final 50 miles into NYC. And there was a problem with convective lows firing east of the main low that didn’t allow it to spread snow far enough west-they stole energy from the main coastal low. 

It’s all going to be dynamic cooling dependent snow. No real cold air in place, no arctic connection. If there isn’t strong lift and heavy QPF rates it’s going to be rain. All dependent on bringing cold down from aloft/creating its own cold air. Pray for a strong wrapped up coastal low with a decent track and real good UVVs

[JustinRP37]

We really don't have to go back too far for a decent March snowfall in Manhattan itself. Though rare, 8.4 inches fell March 21-22 2018, 7.6 inches on March 4, 2017, and 7.5 inches on March 5, 2015. For a truly large snowfall in March though we have to go all the way back to 1888 in Manhattan where 16.5 inches fell. So I won't write it off yet, it is really produce or shut up time for the year now. If it is rain then the snowless streak of Central Park having 1 inch or more snowpack will hit a massive record before we see snow again. 

[nycwinter]

15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

We really don't have to go back too far for a decent March snowfall in Manhattan itself. Though rare, 8.4 inches fell March 21-22 2018, 7.6 inches on March 4, 2017, and 7.5 inches on March 5, 2015. For a truly large snowfall in March though we have to go all the way back to 1888 in Manhattan where 16.5 inches fell. So I won't write it off yet, it is really produce or shut up time for the year now. If it is rain then the snowless streak of Central Park having 1 inch or more snowpack will hit a massive record before we see snow again. 

for i think the 2018 storm we had arctic air temps were falling down the 20's you did not mention the superstorm of 1993 dropped 10.6 inches in the park ..

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Mike B is a good met 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mike B is a good met 

Yeah the air mass gets better after the first storm.

[donsutherland1]

The latest ECMWF weeklies are not as cold for March 13-20 as they were last week.

3/2:

3/6:

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

We really don't have to go back too far for a decent March snowfall in Manhattan itself. Though rare, 8.4 inches fell March 21-22 2018, 7.6 inches on March 4, 2017, and 7.5 inches on March 5, 2015. For a truly large snowfall in March though we have to go all the way back to 1888 in Manhattan where 16.5 inches fell. So I won't write it off yet, it is really produce or shut up time for the year now. If it is rain then the snowless streak of Central Park having 1 inch or more snowpack will hit a massive record before we see snow again. 

Actually the blizzard of 1888 they recorded 21 inches in Manhattan. This could also be the beginning of the great under measurements. Brooklyn recorded 36 inches and New Haven to the north recorded 45 inches, most of the Hudson valley in New York from 40 to 60 inches, and in between Manhattan record 21. Possible but highly unlikely. 

Look at any pictures of Manhattan the day after the blizzard of 1888, and remember there was no snow on the ground when the storm started. There is no way anything less than 30 inches fell, and probably closer to 36 like in Brooklyn. 

[JustinRP37]

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Actually the blizzard of 1888 they recorded 21 inches in Manhattan. This could also be the beginning of the great under measurements. Brooklyn recorded 36 inches and New Haven to the north recorded 45 inches, most of the Hudson valley in New York from 40 to 60 inches, and in between Manhattan record 21. Possible but highly unlikely. 

Look at any pictures of Manhattan the day after the blizzard of 1888, and remember there was no snow on the ground when the storm started. There is no way anything less than 30 inches fell, and probably closer to 36 like in Brooklyn. 

Central Park has always had a tiny ruler it seems. Or they measure from a manhole covering the steam infrastructure. 

[Winterweatherlover]

OP GFS still amped and warm for the coast with storm 1. I lean toss given lack of support from other models and ensembles.  

[Winterweatherlover]

Come 100 miles west and it would be boom, we really are dependent on dynamic cooling

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030618&fh=207&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[MJO812]

Gfs had 2 coastals but misses us . 1st hits sne and 2nd close but offshore.

Interesting pattern ahead

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs had 2 coastals but misses us . 1st hits sne and 2nd close but offshore.

Interesting pattern ahead

The second one looks like it has KU potential if it comes west. Looking at both GFS/Euro Eastern NE is blasted. 

[donsutherland1]

A clipper system will bring some light rain changing to snow to parts of the region, especially from northern New Jersey southward. Snowfall amounts will 1"-2". Central Park will likely see around 0.5". Little or no accumulation is possible north of New York City. Amounts could still be somewhat higher or lower in the City given how close it will be to the heaviest precipitation.

Following the clipper, it will become somewhat cooler tomorrow ahead of the development of a colder regime that will very likely commence later this week. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 4°- 7° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could through the closing week of March.

Potential storminess around the March 11-12 timeframe will need to be monitored. There is the potential for at least some snowfall in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Considerable uncertainty persists, but the picture should become clearer near or just after midweek.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City.

For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +0.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.340 today.

On March 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 3.111 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.219 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It centered on impacts over E MA 5 days out or so and the question was always how far west the heavy snow could get. Very much like Jan 2015. The heavy snow edged west enough to get most of Suffolk County but couldn’t get the final 50 miles into NYC. And there was a problem with convective lows firing east of the main low that didn’t allow it to spread snow far enough west-they stole energy from the main coastal low. 

It got the heavy snow all the way to Brooklyn, I remember one foot totals being measured there.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Euro squishes the first event south then on the 14th a larger event takes place, gives us 1 to 4 then destroys easter NE with feet of snow. Some of this is from the clipper, you can see where that is.

This is what I would expect from a Miller B

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A clipper system will bring some light rain changing to snow to parts of the region, especially from northern New Jersey southward. Snowfall amounts will 1"-2". Central Park will likely see around 0.5". Little or no accumulation is possible north of New York City. Amounts could still be somewhat higher or lower in the City given how close it will be to the heaviest precipitation.

Following the clipper, it will become somewhat cooler tomorrow ahead of the development of a colder regime that will very likely commence later this week. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 4°- 7° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could through the closing week of March.

Potential storminess around the March 11-12 timeframe will need to be monitored. There is the potential for at least some snowfall in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Considerable uncertainty persists, but the picture should become clearer near or just after midweek.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City.

For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +0.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.340 today.

On March 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 3.111 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.219 (RMM).

 

I love that quantum particles analogy, Don!

These are virtual particles, just like these simulated snowstorms are lol.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Actually the blizzard of 1888 they recorded 21 inches in Manhattan. This could also be the beginning of the great under measurements. Brooklyn recorded 36 inches and New Haven to the north recorded 45 inches, most of the Hudson valley in New York from 40 to 60 inches, and in between Manhattan record 21. Possible but highly unlikely. 

Look at any pictures of Manhattan the day after the blizzard of 1888, and remember there was no snow on the ground when the storm started. There is no way anything less than 30 inches fell, and probably closer to 36 like in Brooklyn. 

Yes and the funny thing is Manhattan should have had more than Brooklyn or most of Long Island since Manhattan changed from rain to snow first.  This was a rainer in Boston and the high snowfall totals did not make it to eastern Long Island.  The north shore of western Suffolk County had 38" though and Northern Queens had 36" so I would expect Manhattan also had over 30"

Coney Island area had 26" so it was definitely more than that.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

for i think the 2018 storm we had arctic air temps were falling down the 20's you did not mention the superstorm of 1993 dropped 10.6 inches in the park ..

Yes but that changed to rain.  For a double digit storm that was all snow after February you have to go quite a ways back.

[Rjay]

Not 1 post about the gfs?

[Franklin0529]

Gfs drops a bomb just south of long Island