SACRUS Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: So it's been a long time then....the last time I asked someone said 1996 lol. In 2015 we came close though, it was in the single digits on the last day of February wasn't it, Don? in 2015 NYC went down to 12 on Mr 6th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, nycwinter said: snowman19 is like lucy always pulling the football away from charlie brown.. Just read Don's analysis regarding how rare a mid March snowfall is especially after a historically low snow winter. The no snow option in mid March will win 95% of the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 12z cmc is what happens if the storm is too weak and too Far East, no dynamics and rain at the coast. Well mostly too Far East this run , it’s not weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 CMC completely caved to the ECMWF... total change in the synoptic evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: in 2015 NYC went down to 12 on Mr 6th. Thanks Tony, what were the lows on February 28th and March 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC completely caved to the ECMWF... total change in the synoptic evolution It went from too far west to too Far East. It’s all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12z cmc is what happens if the storm is too weak and too Far East, no dynamics and rain at the coast. Well mostly too Far East this run , it’s not weak. why does it seem like no matter what the track this will be rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why does it seem like no matter what the track this will be rain for us You need a dynamic storm + favorable track after March 10. It also helps if it falls at night if you want stickage but that's mostly for lighter rates. It is what it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1996 came close with 10 degree readings at NYC/EWR Thanks, that was our closest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why does it seem like no matter what the track this will be rain for us not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: why does it seem like no matter what the track this will be rain for us Not necessarily but needs to be strong and close to the coast especially if it’s Miller B because that will initially pump warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Not necessarily but needs to be strong and close to the coast especially if it’s Miller B because that will initially pump warm air. and we need a Miller B south of us, otherwise it's for New England like they normally are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and we need a Miller B south of us, otherwise it's for New England like they normally are. I could be naive but not too worried about that with this blocking, more worried about secondary being flat/suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Looks like GFS/CMC both moved in a favorable direction Need that Rockies ridge to keep trending 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like GFS/CMC both moved in a favorable direction Agree like the look of offshore lows, just need one of them to trend stronger and west. Not a bad look at all this far out. I was focused on cmc, just looked at gfs and the first wave is too far west for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet The 3/5 0z ECMWF had it. Hopefully, the more wrapped up ensemble members will prove to be correct. There's still plenty of time left. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I’m so confused by this pattern I guess the models are too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Looks like GFS/CMC both moved in a favorable direction Need that Rockies ridge to keep trending You are going to have to depend on strong dynamic cooling. Unless there is an amped up storm with strong UVVs and heavy precip rates to cause dynamic cooling and bring down cold air from aloft, it’s going to be rain. Lack of cold and approaching mid-March 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 My interpretation: GFS really strong with storm 1 so storm 2 is squashed to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Ukie must be surpressed for storm 1 because it hits Southern NJ coast. Models completely all over the place https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030612&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I’m so confused by this pattern I guess the models are too. The models are struggling right now. Every model run is a different adventure. I don't think we start to see better consistency until mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The models are struggling right now. Every model run is a different adventure. I don't think we start to see better consistency until mid week. Yep no agreement between models or even run to run agreement in the same model. Agree this won't be sorted out until at least mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 One thing I don't love is even in a supposed great pattern coming up there seems to still be great lakes lows and I feel until we shake that it might be hard to get cold enough without threading the needle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 41 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You are going to have to depend on strong dynamic cooling. Unless there is an amped up storm with strong UVVs and heavy precip rates to cause dynamic cooling and bring down cold air from aloft, it’s going to be rain. Lack of cold and approaching mid-March And that's what models are showing. It would be a dynamic coastal storm as some ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 The GEFS is as perfect as it can get. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The GEFS is as perfect as it can get. Gorgeous. Let’s get the Euro/EPS follow suit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The GEFS is as perfect as it can get. It's still a hugger. Need that primary to dig further south. Not a bad look right now though Additionally the more it digs due to a stronger Rockies ridge the stronger the secondary response will be. That's what we need in March to get big snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I prefer flip flopping at this range. It hasn’t cut to Chicago yet. Good news. Ending winter with a big one I hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's still a hugger. Need that primary to dig further south. Not a bad look right now though That's not really a hugger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's still a hugger. Need that primary to dig further south. Not a bad look right now though Additionally the more it digs due to a stronger Rockies ridge the stronger the secondary response will be. That's what we need in March to get big snows. We essentially want that closed upper low to go underneath us. That would cause strong deepening of the surface low in a good location, and the upper low being south of us would funnel in lots of moisture into cold air. But we want the 500mb low to be closed to generate a real comma head/CCB snow band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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