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March 2023


Rjay
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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So it's been a long time then....the last time I asked someone said 1996 lol.

In 2015 we came close though, it was in the single digits on the last day of February wasn't it, Don?

 

in 2015 NYC went down to 12 on Mr 6th.

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5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

snowman19 is like lucy always pulling the football away from charlie brown..

Just read Don's analysis regarding how rare a mid March snowfall is especially after a historically low snow winter. 

The no snow option in mid March will win 95% of the time

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why does it seem like no matter what the track this will be rain for us :(

 

You need a dynamic storm + favorable track after March 10.

It also helps if it falls at night if you want stickage but that's mostly for lighter rates. 

It is what it is 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why does it seem like no matter what the track this will be rain for us :(

 

not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like GFS/CMC both moved in a favorable direction 

Agree like the look of offshore lows, just need one of them to trend stronger and west. Not a bad look at all this far out. 
 

I was focused on cmc, just looked at gfs and the first wave is too far west for us. 

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12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet

The 3/5 0z ECMWF had it. Hopefully, the more wrapped up ensemble members will prove to be correct. There's still plenty of time left.

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Looks like GFS/CMC both moved in a favorable direction 
Need that Rockies ridge to keep trending 

You are going to have to depend on strong dynamic cooling. Unless there is an amped up storm with strong UVVs and heavy precip rates to cause dynamic cooling and bring down cold air from aloft, it’s going to be rain. Lack of cold and approaching mid-March
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1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The models are struggling right now. Every model run is a different adventure. I don't think we start to see better consistency until mid week. 

Yep no agreement between models or even run to run agreement in the same model. Agree this won't be sorted out until at least mid week.  

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41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


You are going to have to depend on strong dynamic cooling. Unless there is an amped up storm with strong UVVs and heavy precip rates to cause dynamic cooling and bring down cold air from aloft, it’s going to be rain. Lack of cold and approaching mid-March

And that's what models are showing. It would be a dynamic coastal storm as some ensembles show. 

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35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The GEFS is as perfect as it can get.

image.thumb.png.235b5353c253810c74d7f982e4675050.png

It's still a hugger. Need that primary to dig further south. Not a bad look right now though 

Additionally the more it digs due to a stronger Rockies ridge the stronger the secondary response will be. That's what we need in March to get big snows. 

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_eus_fh114-132.thumb.gif.cda6de6f91ae38a07e01108620aa7781.gif

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's still a hugger. Need that primary to dig further south. Not a bad look right now though 

Additionally the more it digs due to a stronger Rockies ridge the stronger the secondary response will be. That's what we need in March to get big snows. 

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_eus_fh114-132.thumb.gif.cda6de6f91ae38a07e01108620aa7781.gif

We essentially want that closed upper low to go underneath us. That would cause strong deepening of the surface low in a good location, and the upper low being south of us would funnel in lots of moisture into cold air. But we want the 500mb low to be closed to generate a real comma head/CCB snow band. 

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