March 2023

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Less coastal and inland runners on the 18z Euro compared to 12z.

More emphasis on the secondary 

[Franklin0529]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Less coastal and inland runners on the 18z Euro compared to 12z.

More emphasis on the secondary 

Can u post the maps

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Can u post the maps

 

[Franklin0529]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Thanks ant. Still some nice hits there

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

That is quite the look.

[Rjay]

Lol

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol

 

Oh look. Backend snow 

[Winterweatherlover]

Models seem to have two waves now, one around 3/11 and a second stronger one around 3/13-3/14. A lot to sort out here.   

[jayyy]

Models seem to have two waves now, one around 3/11 and a second stronger one around 3/13-3/14. A lot to sort out here.   

I think wave 2 is the one to really watch. One ushers in the cold air and ushers in the pattern, wave 2 gets it done. It’s far out, but some LR models are also showing a wave 3. Wave train coming.


.

[jayyy]

Wave 2 per the CMC. Better look than wave 1 with the boundary setup further south. Wave 1 kickstarts the pattern and wave 2 follows on its heels with better conditions in place.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, jayyy said:

I think wave 2 is the one to really watch. One ushers in the cold air and ushers in the pattern, wave 2 gets it done. It’s far out, but some LR models are also showing a wave 3. Wave train coming.


.

Yep active pattern coming 

[donsutherland1]

3/6 0z EPS Members:

Notes:

1. The operational ECMWF did not go wild at 0z for the first time in 3 0z runs

2. A focus on ensembles over the operational guidance is useful as uncertainty remains considerable

3. In the next 24-72 hours, the picture should be much clearer

Below is an illustration of what things should look like when the ensembles lock in on a potential event. This chart is from the late February event that saw 1.8" fall at Central Park.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 54°

Philadelphia: 55°

It will become somewhat cooler tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 46.6°; 15-Year: 47.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.7°; 15-Year: 48.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 49.6°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     42degs.(36/48) or Normal.

Reached  53 yesterday at 3pm.

Today:  49-51, wind nw., p. sunny, 37 tomorrow AM.

Well at least it is at 100%:

40*(58%RH) at 6am.      41* at 7am.     44* at 9am.      46* at 10am.       48* at 11am.       50* at Noon.       51* at 1pm.    Reached   54* at 4pm.        50* at 6pm.      48* at 9pm.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

3/6 0z EPS Members:

Notes:

1. The operational ECMWF did not go wild at 0z for the first time in 3 0z runs

2. A focus on ensembles over the operational guidance is useful as uncertainty remains considerable

3. In the next 24-72 hours, the picture should be much clearer

Below is an illustration of what things should look like when the ensembles lock in on a potential event. This chart is from the late February event that saw 1.8" fall at Central Park.

 

Hey Don, this one if flying under the radar. Would be interesting if this minor event can help CPK avoid the record. Would be funny though it it ends up JUST South.

[EastonSN+]

Best look of the entire season. However, as usual a good pattern DOES NOT guarantee snow. Temporary PNA spikes with blocking is our best look. I would want the PNA spikes to be a little west of this depiction.

[EastonSN+]

GEFS similar

[EastonSN+]

To edit my posts above, that is more of a Rockies ridge not a PNA spike (actually a trough out there surprise surprise). Can still help us.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS similar

You really need ridges to spike behind the shortwave as they move east so they can dig and transfer.

Others you just get deamplifying waves that give you light rain. 

It's easier to do now with shortening wavelengths but it's still a challenge. West coast trough is okay for March 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

You really need ridges to spike behind the shortwave as they move east so they can dig and transfer.

Others you just get deamplifying waves that give you light rain. 

It's easier to do now with shortening wavelengths but it's still a challenge 

Yup. We need that Rockies ridge to do it's thing if we have a chance. Still better than any look all season.

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This seems to be a cogent and valid impression of where things stand at this time, yup.

I would caution, however, that it's not too late for amplitude to return.  There's a pattern change really that is multi-dimensional.   It's not just the immediate correction of the -PNA as it quickly rises over 5 days to 0 or even modest positive ( as well as the west (geographic) fade of the -NAO block...etc etc), but the that very fast SST correciton and SOI reversal, combined with a unfurling of the powerful MJO wave space that is in 8 ... these are more indirect, these latter indicators, but it strikes me that they really should correlate better to a western N/A ridge response -

Lest we forget ... how often aspects can look rather dreary when relaying from the extended into the middle range for a stint.  It's all 5 to 6 days away. 

Great post from TIP

[LibertyBell]

On 3/4/2023 at 6:24 PM, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of the storm that brought heavy rain and coastal flooding to the region overnight into today, milder weather will follow tomorrow and continue into early next week. Afterward, it will turn more seasonable for a time.

A colder regime will develop during the second week of the March. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City.

For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +0.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.186 today.

On March 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.836 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.389 (RMM).

 

March 1992 is an analog we have been talking about

6.2 on the 19th and 3.4 on the 22th.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post from TIP

I see a lot of optimism, but in this region's climate, it pays to be pessimistic; pessimism tends to be correct more often than not.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Best look of the entire season. However, as usual a good pattern DOES NOT guarantee snow. Temporary PNA spikes with blocking is our best look. I would want the PNA spikes to be a little west of this depiction.

"Best look" is still probably not good enough.

A look like this in an already snowy season will produce a different result than in a season when it hasn't been snowing.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I see a lot of optimism, but in this region's climate, it pays to be pessimistic; pessimism tends to be correct more often than not.

Depends on where you are in the sub forum. From approx 1980 onwards my area has done great in March, often far better than December.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

"Best look" is still probably not good enough.

A look like this in an already snowy season will produce a different result than in a season when it hasn't been snowing.

We will see, there have been winters with one storm wonders. No reason to be optimistic OR pessimistic at this point as there is a lot of time to go.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Depends on where you are in the sub forum. From approx 1980 onwards my area has done great in March, often far better than December.

I just mean in general when dealing with a bad winter.  In a good winter borderline patterns work out better than they do in a bad winter.

[MJO812]

Sneaky clipper tomorrow 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We will see, there have been winters with one storm wonders. No reason to be optimistic OR pessimistic at this point as there is a lot of time to go.

One storm wonders though usually do their thing in January and February.

I think March 1992 is probably the best we can hope for, that was one time in relative recent history when a really bad winter was somewhat saved in March.

Have you looked up those two March storms in your area-- how did you guys do there?

The time period is similar too, the 19th and 22nd.

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Don, this one if flying under the radar. Would be interesting if this minor event can help CPK avoid the record. Would be funny though it it ends up JUST South.

It's going to be a close call for the City. I think the high-resolution models will tell the story, especially the 18z and 0z runs. My initial thoughts are that that accumulating snow would grave the City. Measurable amounts in Central Park will be a close call, as it is plausible that JFK, Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island see some accumulations while the Park falls just short.