March 2023

[SnowGoose69]

BTW The UKMET is in the CMC/Euro came of nothing this far north with the clipper either.

[brooklynwx99]

watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B

heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim

[psv88]

48 and sunshine. Ready for spring. 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B

heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim

Nice improvement on the GEFS. Low forms off southern NJ then slides due east while intensifying. Verbatim NJ gets crushed.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

48 and sunshine. Ready for spring. 

Still a couple of significant wintry weather threats IMO including next weekend. I think consistently spring type temperatures 50s/60s are still at least two-three weeks away. We'll get a day or two here and there in between bouts of cold in the meantime.

WX/PT

[WestBabylonWeather]

Jesus why couldn’t this have been in February 

[Winterweatherlover]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

UKMET is a nuke

Must be rain at the immediate coast based on the snow map but doesn't really matter this far out. 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030512&fh=144&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_024h-imp&m=ukmet

[snowman19]

Just based on the 500mb the new Euro is going to look absolutely nothing at all like 0z

[kingbaus]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Just based on the 500mb the new Euro is going to look absolutely nothing at all like 0z

Yeah too far east.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just based on the 500mb the new Euro is going to look absolutely nothing at all like 0z

It's flatter but still quite close

[binbisso]

[binbisso]

[MJO812]

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not a bad look. Still long way to go

[mikem81]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Not a bad look. Still long way to go

[Franklin0529]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Thanks man. Can't be mad with that look.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I would much rather see the Euro where it is at this point than closer in. Anything too close probably ends up tracking right over us or to our west and all rain. The current track and energy transfer is perfect to me at this range for evolving into a mid March frozen precip event.

WX/PT

[Franklin0529]

 

[MANDA]

Just seeing subtle changes in EPS from 24 hours ago - slightly faster, slightly flatter and slightly faster moving system for next Sun/Mon.  Changes from the 00Z runs are of course more notable. The 00Z OP EURO was an extreme outlier in my opinion.   Not much to complain about 6-7 days out.  In my opinion trends starting with 12Z runs tomorrow through the ensuing 3 days will be much more telling as to where this potential event is headed.   I believe a notable Miller B type system is in the making and would expect guidance to trend that way over the next few days.  PTYPE still very much up for grabs across this forum. 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would much rather see the Euro where it is at this point than closer in. Anything too close probably ends up tracking right over us or to our west and all rain. The current track and energy transfer is perfect to me at this range for evolving into a mid March frozen precip event.

WX/PT

Totally agree. Steady as she goes 

 

[ILoveWinter]

Really no point in getting overtly excited or disappointed in Op runs a week out, ensembles are the way to go and even for them a week out is a long while. At least we know the potential is there pattern wise.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would much rather see the Euro where it is at this point than closer in. Anything too close probably ends up tracking right over us or to our west and all rain. The current track and energy transfer is perfect to me at this range for evolving into a mid March frozen precip event.

WX/PT

I completely agree. 

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Still a couple of significant wintry weather threats IMO including next weekend. I think consistently spring type temperatures 50s/60s are still at least two-three weeks away. We'll get a day or two here and there in between bouts of cold in the meantime.

WX/PT

We're in nape season where it can be in the 50s or even 60s one day and snowing heavily the next. 

[Greg g]

This is the one time I’m wishing for no storm as I have a flight out of Newark to orlando next Sunday at 1;00pm

[weatherpruf]

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

As always it depends on where in the forum you’re talking about. It’s a pretty diverse area winter weather wise. 

For NYC you only have to go back to 2017 and 2018 for substantial March storms and in the case of 2018 a significant April snowfall in the city proper.

In 2017 Central Park had 7.6 inches on March 14 and in 2018 there was 8.4 inches on March 21 and 5.5 inches on April 2nd. 

For March 2017 and March 2018 we in the northern suburbs, Orange County in My case, had over 20 inches from both the March 14 2017 event and the March 7 2018 event in which the Park only had 3.2 inches. 

I realize March is fickle especially on the coastal plain, but we don’t have to go back that far for the last substantial March storms. 

I'm talking about my area just outside the city; over ten inches in March is very rare. Of course in your area it is different. Again, would love to see even a 3-6, 4-8 event before the curtain lowers. Anything more would be exceptional. And well, cursed by every other normal being in the area, but hey its March, if it snows nature will take care of it. Will be keeping an eye out here to see what happens; right now long range locals calling for 40s and rain. Anything can happen in March, we used to say.

[WestBabylonWeather]

12 minutes ago, Greg g said:

This is the one time I’m wishing for no storm as I have a flight out of Newark to orlando next Sunday at 1;00pm

Don’t worry. It’s mid March when it happens. Will melt in a few hours 

[Nibor]

12 minutes ago, Greg g said:

This is the one time I’m wishing for no storm as I have a flight out of Newark to orlando next Sunday at 1;00pm

thots and prayers

[donsutherland1]

Milder weather returned today. Temperatures surged into the 50s across the region and approached 60° in southeastern Pennsylvania. Tomorrow will be another mild day

A colder regime will develop starting later this week. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March.

The operational ECMWF has been oscillating wildly on a run-to-run basis in terms of snowfall for the northern Mid-Atlantic region for the March 10-12 period:

March 3 12z: New York City: 1"; Philadelphia: 0"
March 4 0z: New York City: 12"; Philadelphia: 10"
March 4 12z: New York City: 0"; Philadelphia: 0"
March 5 0z: New York City: 24"; Philadelphia: 10"
March 5 12z: New York City: 4"; Philadelphia: 1"

These heart-stopping swings signal a volatile period with high potential that could either bring great joy to the snow-starved region or massive heartbreak. Extreme solutions should be discounted without strong and sustained support. Instead, until run-to-run continuity improves, one should focus on developments on the ensembles, especially as historic experience has not been kind.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City.

For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was -4.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.640 today.

On March 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.208 (RMM). The March 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.841 (RMM).

 

[Roger Smith]

Just to maintain the record of guidance tracking, 18z GFS depicts a rather weak event in the same area, then a second coastal forms two days later and is somewhat more productive. I would estimate 1-2" from first event for NYC area and 2-4" from second one. Both have some potential to taint. (verbatim, I'm not saying any of that will be the actual outcome). Both of those events would combine to keep 1972-73 on the seasonal snowfall futility throne, and I suspect it might bring 2022-23 down to second in the DonS futility index (maybe to 1918-19 or 1997-98, or maybe third to both of them?) But if those snowfalls only added up to 2-3" it could keep 2022-23 in first place there (last place I suppose). 

I don't have a strong hunch about how this plays out. I suspect what you need is for the Pacific coastal trough to relax enough to allow the right upstream look, but not to such an extent that it floods too much Pacific warmth into the plains states. By the way, locally we have our maximum winter snow pack now, around 22-24" and I think we have finally creaked our way to a near normal outcome for this ski resort location, unlike further south it has not been overly snowy here, but the winter started early (late October) and has seemed to drag on forever. 

[MJO812]

Some heavy hitters in here

 

 

 

Less emphasis on the primary compared to 12z.

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Less coastal and inland runners on the 18z Euro compared to 12z.

More emphasis on the secondary