Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM has nothing at all. Zip zero. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Yea I’m not interested in this unless the RGEM comes on board especially because it’s solution makes sense for clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Clipper looks good for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 46 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Not very often in March; it was only 2017 when we had a huge bust...I'm not sold on March events, with good reason. Still, I would love to see even a smaller event at this point. As always it depends on where in the forum you’re talking about. It’s a pretty diverse area winter weather wise. For NYC you only have to go back to 2017 and 2018 for substantial March storms and in the case of 2018 a significant April snowfall in the city proper. In 2017 Central Park had 7.6 inches on March 14 and in 2018 there was 8.4 inches on March 21 and 5.5 inches on April 2nd. For March 2017 and March 2018 we in the northern suburbs, Orange County in My case, had over 20 inches from both the March 14 2017 event and the March 7 2018 event in which the Park only had 3.2 inches. I realize March is fickle especially on the coastal plain, but we don’t have to go back that far for the last substantial March storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: not all events are the same. the GFS is clearly the outlier and will be treated as such Agree the Ukie leans flat, the cmc is flat, the euro is a HECS and euro ensembles lean flat. GFS is most likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: For some good prospective, this is what the Euro was showing last week for this weekend If the models swapped places you would say the same thing though. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Clipper looks good for NYC I need the mesos to come aboard for that one but it's possible the system is out of range for them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I need the mesos to come aboard for that one but it's possible the system is out of range for them. I don’t like that the RGEM has no interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run GFS has schooled the Euro at this range all winter. This makes sense given the winter pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run I’m not calling for a hecs but the gfs is probably going to cave this time and last time I said other models would probably cave to gfs. I think we either end up with significant east coast storm or a flat weak wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS has schooled the Euro at this range all winter. This makes sense given the winter pattern it is a complete outlier and is trending towards the other models. i have no reason to trust it at this point also, the trend this winter has been to strengthen the Pacific jet, if anything, so the trends towards other model guidance make sense IMO 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Gfs caving 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs caving Yep this is either going to weak disorganized and flat or an East coast storm, this is not going to be a raging cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 lmao GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I don’t like that the RGEM has no interest. Its a fairly massive outlier at the moment though...even the 12Z HRRR has something at 40-48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030512&fh=147&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=153&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS has schooled the Euro at this range all winter. This makes sense given the winter pattern GFS caved significantly to the other models 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Not the euro but a massive trend toward it. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its a fairly massive outlier at the moment though...even the 12Z HRRR has something at 40-48 12Z Canadian has no interest either. I lean non event for now but am tracking it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 12z CMC cuts (I don't anticipate this being the outcome but presenting all possible solutions). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: 12z CMC cuts (I don't anticipate this being the outcome but presenting all possible solutions). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Caving also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro has nothing here either It at least does not have nothing altogether though. The CMC/RGEM basically wash all the precip out in central PA. I can at least respect a Euro idea of simply missing south but bringing snow to the SNJ Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Caving also Not really in my interpretation, this was 0Z, seems like it came west or at least is focusing on a different wave. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030500&fh=180&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: he was talking about next weekends event not the dynamic little clipper. Regardless, all I see from your posts are non events, no snow, rain and that's it. Let it play out sir, nobody knows what's going to happen! . I would hope some meteorologist has a general idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, wilsonvoid1 said: yes we can only hope the red tag gets could give us a better understanding, but snowman's post are a joke to me so I am just going to ignore them from now on. Hopefully last night Euro ends up being right that would be amazing! . Put it this way. I'd rather be us than PHL or DCA, thats for sure 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 UKMET is a nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Only a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Caving also It pops a low as well, but only NNE cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 12z GEFS ensembles for Tuesday 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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