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March 2023


Rjay
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46 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Not very often in March; it was only 2017 when we had a huge bust...I'm not sold on March events, with good reason. Still, I would love to see even a smaller event at this point.

As always it depends on where in the forum you’re talking about. It’s a pretty diverse area winter weather wise. 

For NYC you only have to go back to 2017 and 2018 for substantial March storms and in the case of 2018 a significant April snowfall in the city proper.

In 2017 Central Park had 7.6 inches on March 14 and in 2018 there was 8.4 inches on March 21 and 5.5 inches on April 2nd. 

For March 2017 and March 2018 we in the northern suburbs, Orange County in My case, had over 20 inches from both the March 14 2017 event and the March 7 2018 event in which the Park only had 3.2 inches. 

I realize March is fickle especially on the coastal plain, but we don’t have to go back that far for the last substantial March storms. 

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this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here

the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run

ezgif-1-53225c36d4.thumb.gif.4b7b273b3adf5d66a2e1f709eb56c739.gifezgif-1-9dba6955bb.thumb.gif.7b305a96bfebb38c52fecacb14eeb0c8.gif

 

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here

the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run

ezgif-1-53225c36d4.thumb.gif.4b7b273b3adf5d66a2e1f709eb56c739.gifezgif-1-9dba6955bb.thumb.gif.7b305a96bfebb38c52fecacb14eeb0c8.gif

 

GFS has schooled the Euro at this range all winter.  This makes sense given the winter pattern

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here

the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run

ezgif-1-53225c36d4.thumb.gif.4b7b273b3adf5d66a2e1f709eb56c739.gifezgif-1-9dba6955bb.thumb.gif.7b305a96bfebb38c52fecacb14eeb0c8.gif

 

I’m not calling for a hecs but the gfs is probably going to cave this time and last time I said other models would probably cave to gfs. I think we either end up with significant east coast storm or a flat weak wave. 

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

GFS has schooled the Euro at this range all winter.  This makes sense given the winter pattern

it is a complete outlier and is trending towards the other models. i have no reason to trust it at this point

also, the trend this winter has been to strengthen the Pacific jet, if anything, so the trends towards other model guidance make sense IMO

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


The Euro has nothing here either

It at least does not have nothing altogether though.  The CMC/RGEM basically wash all the precip out in central PA.  I can at least respect a Euro idea of simply missing south but bringing snow to the SNJ Coast

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5 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:


he was talking about next weekends event not the dynamic little clipper. Regardless, all I see from your posts are non events, no snow, rain and that's it. Let it play out sir, nobody knows what's going to happen!


.

I would hope some meteorologist has a general idea?

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1 minute ago, wilsonvoid1 said:


yes we can only hope the red tag gets could give us a better understanding, but snowman's post are a joke to me so I am just going to ignore them from now on. Hopefully last night Euro ends up being right that would be amazing!


.

Put it this way.  I'd rather be us than PHL or DCA, thats for sure

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