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March 2023


Rjay
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Euro is gonna drop like 2-3 feet On nyc this run with a classic miller B. Splits off energy in pac so weak wave rises east and then strengthens and redevelops under the block


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I’ll take “Things that aren’t going to happen” for $500 Alex….
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4cd5db1df7b804a9db44a1e6b6bc1cce.gif

ensemble mean = major snowstorm for DC to BOS
OP = major snowstorm for central NJ to BOS

The difference? The ensemble mean pops the coastal off the coast of NC/SC, instead of ocean city. Both outcomes crush the nyc metro. The ensemble mean depiction gets the mid Atlantic in on the action too.

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the progression on the EPS is quite similar to that of Feb 2021 with the vigorous S/W getting forced underneath the block. it's not very far off. what a shift here

just keep in mind that this is not the end solution at all... but the overall synoptics might not be failing us as we previously thought. gotta trust the pattern to produce

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1677974400-1678406400-1678644000-40-1.thumb.gif.0a552c58b2745c261247a9897c7dc393.gif

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

6bc4b38cff1f51b2d054aedab9a83b33.jpg

Meanwhile the GFS is worlds away, but does show some baby steps towards the EURO. Since the potential storm is a week away, we will continue to see some wild swings with solutions from the Ops. I’ll focus more with the ensembles for now and look for trends.

 

 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:


I’ll take “Things that aren’t going to happen” for $500 Alex….

The Euro would be a historic storm for this region and one of the biggest March storms on record

So yeah I'd say extremely unlikely though there is EPS support. Would need that to hold and for other models to come on board.

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The Euro would be a historic storm for this region and one of the biggest March storms on record
So yeah I'd say extremely unlikely though there is EPS support. Would need that to hold and for other models to come on board.

There was also good op Euro and EPS support for a major snowstorm here this weekend too
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The next 8 days are averaging     42degs.(35/49) or near Normal.

Reached 47 here yesterday at 2pm.

Today:    49-52, wind w. to n.-breezy, m. sunny, 38 tomorrow AM.

With 0" on the GFS and CMC and its own EPS just 50% on at least an inch---the EURO gives this:    It is Mocking You!

1677974400-e8gyvvwZf3A.png

39*(69%RH) here at 6am{was 38 at 3am}       41* at 7am.       44* at 10am.       50* at Noon.       52* at 2pm.      Reached 53* at 3pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 59°

The mild weather will continue tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 46.4°; 15-Year: 46.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 48.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.2°

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 75 (1976)
LGA: 72 (1976)
NYC: 72 (1880)
 

 

Lows:


EWR: 9 (1948)
LGA:9 (1948)
NYC: 3 (1872)

 

Historical:

1894: The low temperature of 36 degrees in San Diego, California, on this day was their lowest on record for March.

 

1959: In Iowa, the record-breaking snowstorm on March 4-6 began with light snow in western Iowa on the morning of the 4th, then spread across the state and intensified with heavy snow falling from the night of the 4th through the 5th and into the early morning on the 6th in eastern Iowa. The snowfall and its subsequent effects were less severe in western Iowa and grew progressively worse, moving eastward. In central Iowa, snowfall amounts were generally 6 to 10 inches. In contrast, in eastern Iowa, a swath of about 12 to 20 inches of snow fell roughly from Appanoose County through Tama County and northeast to Allamakee County. Reported storm total snowfall amounts included 12.9 inches at Waterloo, 14.5 inches at Decorah, 16.0 inches at Oelwein, 17.0 inches at Oskaloosa, 17.6 inches at Dubuque, 19.8 inches at Marshalltown, where 17.8 inches fell in just 24 hours, and 22.0 inches at Fayette where 21.0 inches fell in 24 hours. Winds strengthened steadily during the storm, with speeds reaching 30 to 50 mph at times and causing extensive blowing and drifting of snow. Drifts 6 to 10 feet deep were common, and in northeastern Iowa, a few locations reported drifts 15 to 20 feet deep.

1960 - Eastern Massachusetts greatest March snowstorm of record began to abate. The storm produced record 24 hour snowfall totals of 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph. (3rd-5th) (The Weather Channel)

1962 - A tremendous storm raged along the Atlantic coast. The great Atlantic storm caused more than 200 million dollars property damage from Florida to New England. Winds along the Middle Atlantic Coast reached 70 mph raising forty foot waves, and as much as 33 inches of snow blanketed the mountains of Virginia. The Virginia shoreline was rearranged by historic tidal flooding caused by the combination of the long stretch of strong onshore winds and the Spring Tides. (David Ludlum)

1972: Palm Springs, California, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark. 

1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain and high winds in California. Up to six inches of rain soaked the San Francisco Bay area in 24 hours, and winds gusted to 100 mph at the Wheeler Ridge Pumping Plant near the Tehachapi Mountains. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - While snow blanketed eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, eight cities in North Dakota reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 61 degrees at Bismarck ND was 27 degrees warmer than that at Chanute KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. A strong (F-2) tornado killed one person and injured six others in Heard County GA. A strong (F-3) tornado injured 23 persons and caused more than five million dollars damage around Grantville GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms over eastern Colorado, developing ahead of a major storm system, produced up to three inches of small hail around Colorado Springs in the late morning and early afternoon. Strong thunderstorms swept through southeastern sections of the Denver area during the evening hours. These strong thunderstorms also produced up to three inches of small hail, along with wind gusts to 50 mph, and as much as 2.4 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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25 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed, I’ve have the same, 10/8. I always chuckle at the folks that are off by weeks if not further on the sun angles. 

Yes but what people always forget is next week we get the extra hour of daylight, I believe it was Julian who made this point last week, and to make it worse it happens in the afternoon when the sun is highest in the sky. Forget about any accumulating snow after that, it’s basically impossible, the sun angle people always win in the end. 

I’ve always been curious how we manipulate the Earths axis to make that happen. Will have to research Kyrie Irving’s flat Earth thesis to see his thoughts. 

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24 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yes but what people always forget is next week we get the extra hour of daylight, I believe it was Julian who made this point last week, and to make it worse it happens in the afternoon when the sun is highest in the sky. Forget about any accumulating snow after that, it’s basically impossible, the sun angle people always win in the end. 

I’ve always been curious how we manipulate the Earths axis to make that happen. Will have to research Kyrie Irving’s flat Earth thesis to see his thoughts. 

We’ve been joking about that for years. I worked with a woman many years who actually thought the “extra sunlight” is why we have spring.  I thought for sure she was messing with me but sadly she wasn’t but I digress. 1” at the stake this morning, probably down to patchy snow cover again by days end, after a low of only 33 up to 41 now.  

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Clippers are rarely anything to fuss over here; sometimes in a colder winter they can give us some nice mood flakes on top of a snow pack, but often they fail to do much, as you no doubt realize.

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