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March 2023


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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If the record is broken, it must be the tightest record spread in history.

Be careful with Miller B's like I said in the other post, they are often a New England special.  Simply too far to the southwest here to do well unless it's a really big one that strengthens early and quickly and even then we're usually on the fringe of the best part of it.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro is rain for us next weekend. The 12z models didn't produce for us, but you can see the potential and a long way to go. 

Similar to CMC the secondary develops too late, not a terrible look but as others have stated Miller B's are usually tough for us. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030412&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full

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55 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Similar to CMC the secondary develops too late, not a terrible look but as others have stated Miller B's are usually tough for us. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030412&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full

That's not really a miller B unless the definition completely changed.

Miller Bs usually has secondary development off the NC/VA coast with a primarily no further north than southern Ohio. 

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12Z EPS snowfall members about the same as 24 hours ago with about 8 members of 51 (16%) offering up noteworthy (10"+) snow at KMMU.  With the exception of 7 members all offer significant QPF of 1"+.  Many members aoa 2".  Confidence still rather high for impactful cyclone moving through the MA and parts of the NE.  Posted Control and EPS M 500 mb departures for next Sunday morning.  FOR REFERENCE ONLY the Control has sunk notably south and east with anomalies from 24 hours ago.  Mean is weaker, faster and more ENE (Central KY to Northern VA)from 24 hours ago.  Final verdict is DAYS away on how this evolves.  Confidence moderate and growing that impactful storm affects this forum.  PTYPE is highly uncertain.  Block will do its job and force 2ndary development.  That development and track will determine the final outcome.  Potential looks to be centered next Sunday into Monday give or take.  Per EPS one or two more threats COULD follow this system.

 

12Z EPS  SNOW MEMBERS.jpg

12Z EPS QPF MEMBERS.jpg

12Z EPS MEAN 500 ANOMOLY.jpg

12Z EPS CONTROL 500 ANOMOLY.jpg

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In the wake of the storm that brought heavy rain and coastal flooding to the region overnight into today, milder weather will follow tomorrow and continue into early next week. Afterward, it will turn more seasonable for a time.

A colder regime will develop during the second week of the March. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City.

For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +0.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.186 today.

On March 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.836 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.389 (RMM).

 

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1 hour ago, tmagan said:

At 11:59 P.M. tonight, Central Park will set the record for most consecutive calendar days with less than 1.0" of snow (383 days).

Since they received 1.8 inches from the same storm but just 0.9 inches before and after midnight this will make this another in a line of very questionable records. But I’m sure TWC will play it up to the max. 

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Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Still hard to believe that CPK received only 0.9 after midnight while parts of the Bronx got 3+ from that second batch. I'm still skeptical of the numbers being that low at CPK but I guess it's possible.  

There was sleet mixing in for a good chunk of the city around midnight and after that didn’t get into the Bronx. Temps in midtown may have been a degree or two warmer than surrounding areas as well. The sleet line might’ve gotten into Central Park. 

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31 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Still hard to believe that CPK received only 0.9 after midnight while parts of the Bronx got 3+ from that second batch. I'm still skeptical of the numbers being that low at CPK but I guess it's possible.  

But also highly unlikely.

They recorded .26 inches of liquid from midnight to 6 Am and the temperature was 32-33 with snow the entire time, and somehow that translated to 0.9 inches of snow? I’m sure it was closer to 1.5 to 2.0 inches but it’s par for the course in the very long history of under measuring by the incompetents at the Park. 

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