March 2023

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I get the frustration and as humans we are curious and want an answer as to why something is happening.

However we have to be careful not to overblow the importance of one or two winters (20/21 was great and snowy).

Remember everyone thought the warm blob was permanent due to global warming and 13 through 15 may be the new norm? Now they are thinking it was not the ocean driving the EPO but a constant EPO driving the ocean temps. 

I will say this, if the SER is really permanent and we roast for the next 5 years and we have nothing but cutters I will agree with the theory.

 

 

I dont want that stupid SER in the summer because it makes summers more humid but not as hot.  I want it further south near NC because that gives us a nice hot and dry summer with 100 degree temps in July.  Thats a good latitude for the winter too which is probably why we see so many of our best snowy winters come after hot and dry 100 degree summers.

Also the whole la nina after el nino thing promotes both hot and dry summers and snowy winters.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Feels like every year there is a focus on a different area and it gets overblown.

Polar vortex

MJO

Warm blob

IO

SER

AMO

They work as one not in isolation. The SER is not the driving force.

 

 

But something has to start it doesn't it?  The world is round and as a globe, in a sense the SER is west of the Pacific lol.  So what came first, the chicken or the egg?  Or do they just create each other?  There really is no downstream when it comes to climate because with a round globe, it's all circular.

 

[Cfa]

Port Jefferson is under water and the ferry to Bridgeport isn’t running. Now I have to drive. Lovely.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

Port Jefferson is under water and the ferry to Bridgeport isn’t running. Now I have to drive. Lovely.

Underwater why?

There wasn't that much rain-- was there?

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 72 (1974)
NYC: 70 (1974)
LGA: 69 (1946)

 

Lows:

EWR: 6 (1943)
NYC: 6 (1872)
LGA: 7 (1943)

 

Historical:

1841: President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, cold, and blustery day. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes, and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat. Unfortunately, he died from pneumonia a month later, or did he?

1873: The second inauguration of Ulysses S. Grant remains Washington, DC's record cold March day. The low was 4 degrees, and by noon with the sunshine, the temperature was 16 degrees. Wind chills were around 30 degrees below zero. The 40 mph winds made his inaugural address inaudible to most on the platform with him. 

1899: Cyclone Mahina, aka "The Bathurst Bay Hurricane" in Australia, was credited with producing the highest storm surge on record worldwide. The cyclone, with an estimated central pressure of 911 millibars or 26.90 inches of mercury, caused a 42.6-foot surge when it came ashore on the coast of northern Australia. The storm killed as many as 400 people and is Australia's deadliest cyclone.

1909 - Though fair weather was forecast, President Taft was inaugurated amidst a furious storm. About ten inches of wet snow disrupted travel and communications. The storm drew much criticism against the U.S. Weather Bureau. (David Ludlum)

1953 - Snow was reported on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. (The Weather Channel)

1960: Eastern Massachusetts' most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph.

1966 - A severe blizzard raged across Minnesota and North Dakota. The blizzard lasted four days producing up to 35 inches of snow, and wind gusting to 100 mph produced snow drifts 30 to 40 feet high. Bismarck ND reported zero visibility for 11 hours. Traffic was paralyzed for three days. (2nd-5th) (The Weather Channel)

1983: Brownsville, Texas, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark. 

1987 - Rain and high winds prevailed in the northwestern U.S. A wind gust to 69 mph at Klamath Falls OR was their highest in 25 years, and winds at the Ashland Ranger Station in the Siskiyou Mountains of northern California reached 85 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow and freezing rain made travel hazardous in Ohio and Indiana. A six car pile-up resulted near Columbus OH, with seven injuries reported. Up to two inches of ice glazed central Indiana. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado injured five persons near Brownsville MS, and killed seven cows and two hogs in one pasture. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 90 mph at Canton MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A Pacific cold front working its way across the western U.S. produced heavy snow over parts of Idaho, Nevada and Utah. Up to eleven inches of snow blanketed the valleys of northwest Utah, while 12 to 25 inches fell across the mountains of northern Utah. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the valleys of east central Nevada, while more than a foot of snow was reported in the high elevations. In Idaho, 6 to 8 inches of snow was reported around Aberdeen and American Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - An F0 tornado 2 miles north of Muldrow breaks a record stretch of days without a reported tornado, 292 days.

2008 - Only two days after reaching 78 degrees, St. Louis receives nearly a foot of snow in seven hours, the biggest snowstorm in 15 years.

 

[lee59]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Underwater why?

There wasn't that much rain-- was there?

 

Probably high tides

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But something has to start it doesn't it?  The world is round and as a globe, in a sense the SER is west of the Pacific lol.  So what came first, the chicken or the egg?  Or do they just create each other?  There really is no downstream when it comes to climate because with a round globe, it's all circular.

 

So the theory would be the SER is static and affecting the entire global pattern? 

[Volcanic Winter]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thanks Will -

Okay, so.. for those disenchanted by the GFS, I can assure you it is a vast ...literally diametric peregrination, comparing across all guidance modes and means, including it's own ensemble consensus.  This first step, easy, quick ...available to all ( for f-sake) comparison, demonstrates that the operational version is radically off on it's own...

...sorry that ended up blurry...but those are the 06z  200+ ( within 12 hours of one another) ..

Anyway, more over, the EPS, the GEPs, both demo coherent signals of a Nor'easter type coastal projection.  Particularly in the EPS

 

Fwiw, the operational Euro, and the operational GGEM ... are in much better sync with the overwhelming suggestion that is also agreed upon by all three EPS/GEFS/GEPs considered...

 

So that covers the case presentation by the Defendants -  

... In closing remarks, I'd also push the hypothesis that the operational GFS, may be in troubled waters considering it's native bias. It tends to progressively stretch the flow, which is noted in be error logs at NCEP...etc... It's subtle, but real, and measurable.  That said, it seems that ( take the lead up to today's event - ) when the flow is fast ( gradient rich), the GFS may perform better, because the flow its self is concerted to the GFS tendency.  But in this case above, there is a pretty profound change in the hemisphere going on. The flow is attempting to hang blocking over 60 to 70 N across the Canadian shield.  This lowers heights along 35 N... so the flow relaxes the gradient some, and that slows the flow.  That may not jive so well with the GFS.  I'm suspicious of the GFS in a pattern that is differentiating into a slower/blockier affairs.  

[Volcanic Winter]

Was having issues with the comment editor above, posted that from Typhoon Tip on NE forum in his own topic on the storm. Some very good info and analysis in there.

[HeadInTheClouds]

33 with a light mix. Picked up 1.5 inches of snow/sleet cement mix overnight. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So the theory would be the SER is static and affecting the entire global pattern? 

No I think they all affect each other.  The larger something is the more of an effect it would have.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thanks Will -

Okay, so.. for those disenchanted by the GFS, I can assure you it is a vast ...literally diametric peregrination, comparing across all guidance modes and means, including it's own ensemble consensus.  This first step, easy, quick ...available to all ( for f-sake) comparison, demonstrates that the operational version is radically off on it's own...

...sorry that ended up blurry...but those are the 06z  200+ ( within 12 hours of one another) ..

Anyway, more over, the EPS, the GEPs, both demo coherent signals of a Nor'easter type coastal projection.  Particularly in the EPS

 

Fwiw, the operational Euro, and the operational GGEM ... are in much better sync with the overwhelming suggestion that is also agreed upon by all three EPS/GEFS/GEPs considered...

 

So that covers the case presentation by the Defendants -  

... In closing remarks, I'd also push the hypothesis that the operational GFS, may be in troubled waters considering it's native bias. It tends to progressively stretch the flow, which is noted in be error logs at NCEP...etc... It's subtle, but real, and measurable.  That said, it seems that ( take the lead up to today's event - ) when the flow is fast ( gradient rich), the GFS may perform better, because the flow its self is concerted to the GFS tendency.  But in this case above, there is a pretty profound change in the hemisphere going on. The flow is attempting to hang blocking over 60 to 70 N across the Canadian shield.  This lowers heights along 35 N... so the flow relaxes the gradient some, and that slows the flow.  That may not jive so well with the GFS.  I'm suspicious of the GFS in a pattern that is differentiating into a slower/blockier affairs.  

I think people are worried because the GFS was right about last night's storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 72 (1974)
NYC: 70 (1974)
LGA: 69 (1946)

 

Lows:

EWR: 6 (1943)
NYC: 6 (1872)
LGA: 7 (1943)

 

Historical:

1841: President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, cold, and blustery day. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes, and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat. Unfortunately, he died from pneumonia a month later, or did he?

1873: The second inauguration of Ulysses S. Grant remains Washington, DC's record cold March day. The low was 4 degrees, and by noon with the sunshine, the temperature was 16 degrees. Wind chills were around 30 degrees below zero. The 40 mph winds made his inaugural address inaudible to most on the platform with him. 

1899: Cyclone Mahina, aka "The Bathurst Bay Hurricane" in Australia, was credited with producing the highest storm surge on record worldwide. The cyclone, with an estimated central pressure of 911 millibars or 26.90 inches of mercury, caused a 42.6-foot surge when it came ashore on the coast of northern Australia. The storm killed as many as 400 people and is Australia's deadliest cyclone.

1909 - Though fair weather was forecast, President Taft was inaugurated amidst a furious storm. About ten inches of wet snow disrupted travel and communications. The storm drew much criticism against the U.S. Weather Bureau. (David Ludlum)

1953 - Snow was reported on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. (The Weather Channel)

1960: Eastern Massachusetts' most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph.

1966 - A severe blizzard raged across Minnesota and North Dakota. The blizzard lasted four days producing up to 35 inches of snow, and wind gusting to 100 mph produced snow drifts 30 to 40 feet high. Bismarck ND reported zero visibility for 11 hours. Traffic was paralyzed for three days. (2nd-5th) (The Weather Channel)

1983: Brownsville, Texas, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark. 

1987 - Rain and high winds prevailed in the northwestern U.S. A wind gust to 69 mph at Klamath Falls OR was their highest in 25 years, and winds at the Ashland Ranger Station in the Siskiyou Mountains of northern California reached 85 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow and freezing rain made travel hazardous in Ohio and Indiana. A six car pile-up resulted near Columbus OH, with seven injuries reported. Up to two inches of ice glazed central Indiana. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado injured five persons near Brownsville MS, and killed seven cows and two hogs in one pasture. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 90 mph at Canton MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A Pacific cold front working its way across the western U.S. produced heavy snow over parts of Idaho, Nevada and Utah. Up to eleven inches of snow blanketed the valleys of northwest Utah, while 12 to 25 inches fell across the mountains of northern Utah. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the valleys of east central Nevada, while more than a foot of snow was reported in the high elevations. In Idaho, 6 to 8 inches of snow was reported around Aberdeen and American Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - An F0 tornado 2 miles north of Muldrow breaks a record stretch of days without a reported tornado, 292 days.

2008 - Only two days after reaching 78 degrees, St. Louis receives nearly a foot of snow in seven hours, the biggest snowstorm in 15 years.

 

1960: Eastern Massachusetts' most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph.

^ I wish I was alive to see this one!

 

also, wow how come such a large surge?  because of the shape of the coastline there or the shallow waters?

 

1899: Cyclone Mahina, aka "The Bathurst Bay Hurricane" in Australia, was credited with producing the highest storm surge on record worldwide. The cyclone, with an estimated central pressure of 911 millibars or 26.90 inches of mercury, caused a 42.6-foot surge when it came ashore on the coast of northern Australia. The storm killed as many as 400 people and is Australia's deadliest cyclone.

this one is funny

1841: President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, cold, and blustery day. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes, and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat. Unfortunately, he died from pneumonia a month later, or did he?

do we not know if he died at that time or not?

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

No I think they all affect each other.  The larger something is the more of an effect it would have.

 

I am probably the most guilty in looking at multiple forums to harvest as much information as possible. That being said, it's important to understand the underlying theme of each forum.

The MA forum has had a terrible stretch of winters. Probably due to climbing global temps. Therefore they will put out a lot of hypothesis including the SER dominating everything.

It may also lead to over exaggeration of one influence. 

However, if the SER theory was true there would be a lot more reliance on this factor, and in reality would be our #1 teleconnection over anything. Forecasts would be a lot easier and we can say the PAC will be overwhelmed by SER 90% of the time.

Now let's take this winter and break down the background.

We have a la Nina. La Ninas tend to have an RNA and therefore a SER. If this was a coupled El Nino and the SER was raging I would be concerned. We are SUPPOSED to have a raging RNA in a strong coupled La Nina.

Let's see what happens in the next Coupled El Nino. If this SER theory is true, we will find out over the next few years but IMO the SER is a downstream effect from the RNA/PAC 

 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think people are worried because the GFS was right about last night's storm.

 

I thought the GFS was way off on last nights storm? It was the only model showing Boston getting a ton of snow.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought the GFS was way off on last nights storm? It was the only model showing Boston getting a ton of snow.

No it had rain for us like a week ago.  I don't know what it had for Boston, I just know it had a cutter for us back then.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am probably the most guilty in looking at multiple forums to harvest as much information as possible. That being said, it's important to understand the underlying theme of each forum.

The MA forum has had a terrible stretch of winters. Probably due to climbing global temps. Therefore they will put out a lot of hypothesis including the SER dominating everything.

It may also lead to over exaggeration of one influence. 

However, if the SER theory was true there would be a lot more reliance on this factor, and in reality would be our #1 teleconnection over anything. Forecasts would be a lot easier and we can say the PAC will be overwhelmed by SER 90% of the time.

Now let's take this winter and break down the background.

We have a la Nina. La Ninas tend to have an RNA and therefore a SER. If this was a coupled El Nino and the SER was raging I would be concerned. We are SUPPOSED to have a raging RNA in a strong coupled La Nina.

Let's see what happens in the next Coupled El Nino. If this SER theory is true, we will find out over the next few years but IMO the SER is a downstream effect from the RNA/PAC 

 

I dont believe it's any one thing, I believe everything works together in synchronicity.  It makes sense because that's how nature works in general.

The Pacific is influenced by the Indian Ocean which is influenced by what is west of it, etc.  Since we are on a globe, everything is both cause and effect.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

and that it's 0z makes me feel a little better.

I try to just pay attention to 0z and 12z runs...you're better off that way too lol

In real winters when there were storm possibilities this place would get packed for those two sets of runs.

 

I agree with 0z/12z. That’s also how to pick up on true trends and not small run to run waffles. I’m also trying to focus more on certain models and find it’s sorta helpful. Outside of 84 hours it’s CMC/Euro. I’ll look at gfs or ukmet for additional support but if CMC/Euro not on board I’m not interested. Inside of 84 hours I start with RGEM and look for others for support. 

[Winterweatherlover]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think people are worried because the GFS was right about last night's storm.

 

And it was wrong about the storm before. Recency bias. Also the other models caved to gfs with the past storm by hour 120 so I don’t consider it a huge deal. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No it had rain for us like a week ago.  I don't know what it had for Boston, I just know it had a cutter for us back then.

Yeah GFS was way off on this storm for them.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont believe it's any one thing, I believe everything works together in synchronicity.  It makes sense because that's how nature works in general.

The Pacific is influenced by the Indian Ocean which is influenced by what is west of it, etc.  Since we are on a globe, everything is both cause and effect.

Yup and the SER is an overall response to a overall coupled La Nina, not a permanent feature.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup and the SER is an overall response to a overall coupled La Nina, not a permanent feature.

Yep so it's not one thing that starts it all but really everything working together.  I see Indian Ocean conditions often mentioned as a precursor to whether there will be a la nina or an el nino so maybe something in the IO triggers it.

It makes more sense that way on a round planet.  Now if the earth were flat it would be a different story lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah GFS was way off on this storm for them.

How though... if the GFS had a cutter for this storm 7 days out, did it switch to a snowy Boston solution after that?  Looking at TWC it's actually snowing there right now, but it's a slushy kind of snow.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yep so it's not one thing that starts it all but really everything working together.  I see the Indian Ocean conditions often mentioned as a precursor to whether there will be a la nina or an el nino so maybe something in the IO triggers it.

It makes more sense that way on a round planet.  Now if the earth were flat it would be a different story lol.

 

So I think we are on the same page WRT the SER, it's not overwhelming the pattern or causing the cutters this year. It's the typical la Nina forcing.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

And it was wrong about the storm before. Recency bias. Also the other models caved to gfs with the past storm by hour 120 so I don’t consider it a huge deal. 

This is a good idea not to rely on any solution until within 5 days, beyond 5 days none of them are very reliable.

[lee59]

Decent snows as you go up the Hudson Valley. Looks like Kingston-Saugerties area about 3-5 inches and the Albany vincinity anywhere from 6-12 inches.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

So I think we are on the same page WRT the SER, it's not overwhelming the pattern or causing the cutters this year. It's the typical la Nina forcing.

 

No nothing can really overwhelm the pattern unless it's extremely strong....(you see this in very strong la ninas and very strong el ninos), which is why you see both snowy la ninas and not snowy la ninas, and snowy el ninos and not snowy el ninos. Everything needs to be factored in.

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So I think we are on the same page WRT the SER, it's not overwhelming the pattern or causing the cutters this year. It's the typical la Nina forcing.

 

This Nina needs to go away, period. This Nina is doing exactly what it should unfortunately. We got lucky in 20-21 and a lesser extent last winter but it was doomed to eventually smack us back into reality. 

Huge Western winter-CA usually isn't a Nina snow haven but the RNA was so extreme that it worked out for them too. Huge Upper Plains winter, and becoming a good NNE winter because of the SWFE train. Nina climo to a T. 

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How though... if the GFS had a cutter for this storm 7 days out, did it switch to a snowy Boston solution after that?  Looking at TWC it's actually snowing there right now, but it's a slushy kind of snow.

It did cut to northern Ohio I think but then transferred to a Miller B hugging LI. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, jm1220 said:

This Nina needs to go away, period. This Nina is doing exactly what it should unfortunately. We got lucky in 20-21 and a lesser extent last winter but that reality was doomed to eventually smack us back into reality. 

Huge Western winter-CA usually isn't a Nina snow haven but the RNA was so extreme that it worked out for them too. Huge Upper Plains winter, and becoming a good NNE winter because of the SWFE train. Nina climo to a T. 

100% agreed!

What got me going was the post from the other forum which put too much emphasis on the SER. In reality it's la Nina being la Nina.