Volcanic Winter Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Brooklyn watching the models today: Lol, nah stay the course man. Thanks for staying on top of this with so much commitment, whatever happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I’m up in Schenectady, NY tonight into tomorrow for a friend’s surprise 30th bday party. They are getting absolutely crushed up here. Heavy snow OBS reported for the past 4+ hours easily. 6+ OTG with 1-2” per hour ratesRed dot = current location 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Oh if this pattern misses I'm becomv snowman19's co assistant ****head 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 15 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: You said something kind of positive, now I know this is a real threat! lol the last time he was really positive from what I remember is January 2016 and the rest, as they say, is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 9 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Pretty much over us, but not in Wisconsin! Good news is both models look great following the storm. They always do lol...and back off when within 7 days of the next "event" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: From PSU on the M/A forum: @CAPE this is what I mean. Look at the location of the pacific trough/ridge alignment. This makes sense. Aleutian ridge. Trough should be in the west with a SER but look what happens when the pac flips the the exact opposite pattern as the mjo gets into phase 8. Aleutian trough and… The conus trough ridge alignment remains unaltered. but wait check this out… the pac trough is even slightly east of ideal there…the ridge east if it is begging squeezes to death because the trough still refuses to exit the west. We need to stop blaming the pac. Yes 75% of the time it’s been in a bad case state. But that’s not unheard of. The reason we’re getting such atrocious results is even when the pac is altered it’s made no difference, the wavelengths just adjust however they need to accommodate the SER. It’s almost as if the TNH is more dominant here not the central pacific. a strong SE ridge is now a permanent feature of our climate...what is "TNH" (The Northern Hemisphere)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Euro! Euro control! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 IMO, next weekend’s setup doesn’t look as favorable as it did yesterday. Here’s a good visual on why 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO, next weekend’s setup doesn’t look as favorable as it did yesterday. Here’s a good visual on why What do you think the chances are that NYC and JFK stay below the record lowest seasonal snowfall record? I say it's 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(31/47) or -2.*** Reached 49 here yesterday at Noon. Today: 43-46, wind e. to n.-breezy, cloudy all day, 37 tomorrow AM. 41*(92%RH) at 6am{was 46 at 3am}.) 40* at 9am. Reached 47* at 1pm. 44* at 6pm. ***For the record, the 30-Year Normal for March in the 60's was 40.5 and not today's 43.0. In addition, as always, the daily Normal is rising 1 degree every 4 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Picked up 1.17" of rain so far today. Storm total 1.51" Current temp 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1.4" of sleet, light drizzle now, 33. Will melt down what's in the Stratus when the precipitation stops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Very windy here last night, peak gust 46mph. Plenty of rain 1.23 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 EPS ensembles for the March 10-12 period: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Morning thoughts… Rain will end and clouds could break late in the day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 51° It will turn milder on tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5° Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: IMO, next weekend’s setup doesn’t look as favorable as it did yesterday. Here’s a good visual on why The pacific is the main issue 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: They always do lol...and back off when within 7 days of the next "event" The 0Z Euro looked quite good but obviously need to see some consistency. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 12z euro 0z gfs 0z euro 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The 0Z Euro looked quite good but obviously need to see some consistency. and that it's 0z makes me feel a little better. I try to just pay attention to 0z and 12z runs...you're better off that way too lol In real winters when there were storm possibilities this place would get packed for those two sets of runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, Rjay said: 12z euro 0z gfs 0z euro Just what the doctor ordered-- some consistency between 0z and 12z Euro runs lol. I mentioned this in my previous post before I even saw yours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… Rain will end and clouds could break late in the day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 51° It will turn milder on tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5° Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9° This looks like a very nice week of weather coming up, Don, finally a break from the yucky weather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: a strong SE ridge is now a permanent feature of our climate...what is "TNH" (The Northern Hemisphere)? This isn completely backwards. Everything moves downstream from the PAC. The SER does not act like a plug and backup the entire flow. Pure and simple, the La Nina is coupled and doing exactly what la Nina forcing does, like waves in a pool drop the PNA and raise the SER. Not the opposite. I can't wait for our next good winter so we can finally stop hearing about this magical monster SER lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Euro para with a transfer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 The wc is where I'd keep my eye on. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This isn completely backwards. Everything moves downstream from the PAC. The SER does not act like a plug and backup the entire flow. Pure and simple, the La Nina is coupled and doing exactly what la Nina forcing does, like waves in a pool drop the PNA and raise the SER. Not the opposite. I can't wait for our next good winter so we can finally stop hearing about this magical monster SER lol. It does seem to be good for tropical threats. Here's the thing though...why do storms always seem to correct further north and west? Even in very strong el ninos-- like January 2016? It's been a thing ever since 2002-03. Hell it even happened in February 1983, February 1994 and January 1996 and PD2 2003 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: a strong SE ridge is now a permanent feature of our climate...what is "TNH" (The Northern Hemisphere)? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml The positive phase https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_map.shtml And then here for a bit more info https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/VOLUME/10/PAGE/6/FULLTEXT/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It does seem to be good for tropical threats. Here's the thing though...why do storms always seem to correct further north and west? Even in very strong el ninos-- like January 2016? It's been a thing ever since 2002-03. Hell it even happened in February 1983, February 1994 and January 1996 and PD2 2003 lol. IMO it's modeling that's the issue. They do not move north as much as they used to. 2003 moved a ton north while 2016 moved north but not nearly as much. Also remember the METS always warn us there is sparce data in the PAC and sometimes we have to wait for a storm in the PAC to get picked up by modeling. So in reality it's again the PAC which changes the ultimate destination of the storm not a SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Feels like every year there is a focus on a different area and it gets overblown. Polar vortex MJO Warm blob IO SER AMO They work as one not in isolation. The SER is not the driving force. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I get the frustration and as humans we are curious and want an answer as to why something is happening. However we have to be careful not to overblow the importance of one or two winters (20/21 was great and snowy). Remember everyone thought the warm blob was permanent due to global warming and 13 through 15 may be the new norm? Now they are thinking it was not the ocean driving the EPO but a constant EPO driving the ocean temps. I will say this, if the SER is really permanent and we roast for the next 5 years and we have nothing but cutters I will agree with the theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just checked this board for the first time in a few days… is winter over?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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