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March 2023


Rjay
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I’m up in Schenectady, NY tonight into tomorrow for a friend’s surprise 30th bday party. They are getting absolutely crushed up here. Heavy snow OBS reported for the past 4+ hours easily.

6+ OTG with 1-2” per hour rates

Red dot = current location

e57719e4343c8ffbf2bf4f7c7c5b1fa4.jpg

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3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

From PSU on the M/A forum:

 

 

@CAPE this is what I mean. Look at the location of the pacific trough/ridge alignment. 
 

This makes sense. Aleutian ridge. Trough should be in the west with a SER 

5BD48E34-1ACA-465D-86AF-2B83770D7149.thumb.jpeg.d62f3d2ebee16fcec16e993b0687e38a.jpeg

but look what happens when the pac flips the the exact opposite pattern as the mjo gets into phase 8. Aleutian trough and…

7B41C83D-90E1-45C1-B9F3-02EC6FCD63B5.thumb.jpeg.662f11a94b8078c33de20404748ac29e.jpeg

The conus trough ridge alignment remains unaltered. 
but wait check this out…

504529A0-22FC-4C1B-9E56-F8F3E0DDD212.thumb.jpeg.d76082077b8992e58cc836f382978aee.jpeg

the pac trough is even slightly east of ideal there…the ridge east if it is begging squeezes to death because the trough still refuses to exit the west. 
 

We need to stop blaming the pac. Yes 75% of the time it’s been in a bad case state. But that’s not unheard of. The  reason we’re getting such atrocious results is even when the pac is altered it’s made no difference, the wavelengths just adjust however they need to accommodate the SER. It’s almost as if the TNH is more dominant here not the central pacific.  

a strong SE ridge is now a permanent feature of our climate...what is "TNH" (The Northern Hemisphere)?

 

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The next 8 days are averaging    39degs.(31/47) or -2.***

Reached 49 here yesterday at Noon.

Today:   43-46, wind e. to n.-breezy, cloudy all day, 37 tomorrow AM.

41*(92%RH) at 6am{was 46 at 3am}.)     40* at 9am.      Reached 47* at 1pm.           44* at 6pm.

***For the record, the 30-Year Normal for  March in the 60's was 40.5 and not today's 43.0.     In addition, as always, the daily Normal is rising 1 degree every 4 days or so.

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Morning thoughts…

Rain will end and clouds could break late in the day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 51°

It will turn milder on tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9°

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4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The 0Z Euro looked quite good but obviously need to see some consistency. 

and that it's 0z makes me feel a little better.

I try to just pay attention to 0z and 12z runs...you're better off that way too lol

In real winters when there were storm possibilities this place would get packed for those two sets of runs.

 

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16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Rain will end and clouds could break late in the day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 51°

It will turn milder on tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9°

This looks like a very nice week of weather coming up, Don, finally a break from the yucky weather.

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

a strong SE ridge is now a permanent feature of our climate...what is "TNH" (The Northern Hemisphere)?

 

This isn completely backwards. Everything moves downstream from the PAC. The SER does not act like a plug and backup the entire flow.

Pure and simple, the La Nina is coupled and doing exactly what la Nina forcing does, like waves in a pool drop the PNA and raise the SER. Not the opposite.

I can't wait for our next good winter so we can finally stop hearing about this magical monster SER lol.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This isn completely backwards. Everything moves downstream from the PAC. The SER does not act like a plug and backup the entire flow.

Pure and simple, the La Nina is coupled and doing exactly what la Nina forcing does, like waves in a pool drop the PNA and raise the SER. Not the opposite.

I can't wait for our next good winter so we can finally stop hearing about this magical monster SER lol.

It does seem to be good for tropical threats.

Here's the thing though...why do storms always seem to correct further north and west?  Even in very strong el ninos-- like January 2016?

It's been a thing ever since 2002-03.

Hell it even happened in February 1983, February 1994 and January 1996 and PD2 2003 lol.

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

a strong SE ridge is now a permanent feature of our climate...what is "TNH" (The Northern Hemisphere)?

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

The positive phase

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_map.shtml

And then here for a bit more info

https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/VOLUME/10/PAGE/6/FULLTEXT/

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It does seem to be good for tropical threats.

Here's the thing though...why do storms always seem to correct further north and west?  Even in very strong el ninos-- like January 2016?

It's been a thing ever since 2002-03.

Hell it even happened in February 1983, February 1994 and January 1996 and PD2 2003 lol.

IMO it's modeling that's the issue. They do not move north as much as they used to.

2003 moved a ton north while 2016 moved north but not nearly as much.

Also remember the METS always warn us there is sparce data in the PAC and sometimes we have to wait for a storm in the PAC to get picked up by modeling. So in reality it's again the PAC which changes the ultimate destination of the storm not a SER. 

 

 

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I get the frustration and as humans we are curious and want an answer as to why something is happening.

However we have to be careful not to overblow the importance of one or two winters (20/21 was great and snowy).

Remember everyone thought the warm blob was permanent due to global warming and 13 through 15 may be the new norm? Now they are thinking it was not the ocean driving the EPO but a constant EPO driving the ocean temps. 

I will say this, if the SER is really permanent and we roast for the next 5 years and we have nothing but cutters I will agree with the theory.

 

 

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