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5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Current conditions here..39/28f..oddly it feels wintry and pretty chilly out..i think the chance is there for a brief period of frozen precip even here in the northern parts of the city. The cold air is holding tough though!!.

Sure I could see pellets down to the northern parts of the Bronx tonight. Wouldn't expect any accumulation. 

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7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Sure I could see pellets down to the northern parts of the Bronx tonight. Wouldn't expect any accumulation. 

Yeah if the precip comes in heavy then id expect that to happen. Temps keep dropping slowly also..38-39 degrees with a dp of 28 is not too bad atp. I did mention yesterday about the blocking being stronger then modeled and it might be ringing true for our northern neighbors tonight.

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1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

I'm interested to see where the 0z runs end up, the canadian model has been great this winter, if that holds and the euro shifts that will give me some hope. if not we get em' next year

Canadian hasn’t been quite as good recently, it was the last to cave to GFS on todays hugger

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Yeah if the precip comes in heavy then id expect that to happen. Temps keep dropping slowly also..38-39 degrees with a dp of 28 is not too bad atp. I did mention yesterday about the blocking being stronger then modeled and it might be ringing true for our northern neighbors tonight.

It was sleeting in Columbia Maryland (20 miles WSW of Baltimore) at 42 degrees today and snowed in northern Maryland with some minor accumulation in the upper 30s. Certainly possible for the BX and Rockland / westchester county area.
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35 minutes ago, jayyy said:


It was sleeting in Columbia Maryland (20 miles WSW of Baltimore) at 42 degrees today and snowed in northern Maryland with some minor accumulation in the upper 30s. Certainly possible for the BX and Rockland / westchester county area.

It came in too disjointed here. If it was a wall maybe woulda have been more pingling but has basically just been light rain mixed with some sleet briefly. 

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GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. 

Why? 

The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. 

The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too 

So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up. 

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. 

Why? 

The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. 

The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too 

So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up. 

I don't know why you'd say that so certainly. There's plenty of cold air still and as we know, the maps more than seven days out are rarely correct. While the later it gets the chances of significant wintry weather decrease there have been major winter storms into April and as long as there's cold air around, there'a a chance.

WX/PT

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From PSU on the M/A forum:

 

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE this is what I mean. Look at the location of the pacific trough/ridge alignment. 
 

This makes sense. Aleutian ridge. Trough should be in the west with a SER 

5BD48E34-1ACA-465D-86AF-2B83770D7149.thumb.jpeg.d62f3d2ebee16fcec16e993b0687e38a.jpeg

but look what happens when the pac flips the the exact opposite pattern as the mjo gets into phase 8. Aleutian trough and…

7B41C83D-90E1-45C1-B9F3-02EC6FCD63B5.thumb.jpeg.662f11a94b8078c33de20404748ac29e.jpeg

The conus trough ridge alignment remains unaltered. 
but wait check this out…

504529A0-22FC-4C1B-9E56-F8F3E0DDD212.thumb.jpeg.d76082077b8992e58cc836f382978aee.jpeg

the pac trough is even slightly east of ideal there…the ridge east if it is begging squeezes to death because the trough still refuses to exit the west. 
 

We need to stop blaming the pac. Yes 75% of the time it’s been in a bad case state. But that’s not unheard of. The  reason we’re getting such atrocious results is even when the pac is altered it’s made no difference, the wavelengths just adjust however they need to accommodate the SER. It’s almost as if the TNH is more dominant here not the central pacific.  

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6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I don't know why you'd say that so certainly. There's plenty of cold air still and as we know, the maps more than seven days out are rarely correct. While the later it gets the chances of significant wintry weather decrease there have been major winter storms into April and as long as there's cold air around, there'a a chance.

WX/PT

It's a fool's errand trying to hang onto something after mid March and nobody wants cold/snow by then. 

I would be a lot happier if the month just torched and it was definitively over. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. 

Why? 

The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. 

The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too 

So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up. 

The wc trough and the block links with the se ridge bc it's too far south.  Those are the issues.  

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