March 2023

[Tatamy]

Back to tonight’s event.  In spite of what is being shown on precip type radar right now much of what is falling in south central PA is wet snow or a mix of rain and wet snow.  It is not sticking in most places out there currently.  However as the sun angle piece diminishes over the next hour or two that will change as this precip moves towards the north and east.  This evening is looking to be more interesting at least for some of us if this holds.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

12z Euro is a big rainstorm but probably doesn’t matter this far out, big storm signal still there 

Wc trough could be a problem. 

[winterwx21]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean we have snowed to April before and the pattern is ripe, I am just concerned about a December situation where one storm zapped the atmosphere.

The chance of getting a snowstorm drops dramatically after mid March though. Very important that we cash in over the next couple weeks. I'm optimistic with the pattern looking so favorable, but obviously it isn't great that the Euro is showing a big cutter next weekend. Hopefully it's off and the other models have the right idea. 

[Winterweatherlover]

8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Back to tonight’s event.  In spite of what is being shown on precip type radar right now much of what is falling in south central PA is wet snow or a mix of rain and wet snow.  It is not sticking in most places out there currently.  However as the sun angle piece diminishes over the next hour or two that will change as this precip moves towards the north and east.  This evening is looking to be more interesting at least for some of us if this holds.

Well NW of I95 yes.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wc trough could be a problem. 

Right now yes and it has been all winter

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Right now yes and it has been all winter

Always a new problem that comes up that’s why it’s hard to take anything serious more than 5 days out. 

[EastonSN+]

Pattern looks good through the 20th at least we shall see. As long as the cutter is not as intense as December there will be more chances. Trough finally lifts out of the west.

[MANDA]

About 8 of 51 members from 12Z 3/3 EPS offer something noteworthy in terms of snowfall at KMMU.  An increase from 24 hours ago.  Control once again off the rails for central and eastern lakes into upstate NY and Central & Northern New England.  Certainly solid ensemble support for a noteworthy storm over the east days 7-9.  Overall the 51 members are offering QPF totals of 1 to 1.5" during the day 7-9 day period.  A few notably higher.  Will be interesting to see how this progresses from the day 7-8 period into the day 5-7 period.  All options remain on the table at this point in my opinion. 

[the_other_guy]

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Pattern looks good through the 20th at least we shall see. As long as the cutter is not as intense as December there will be more chances. Trough finally lifts out of the west.

The good news is, we are coming to end one way or the other. Little less than 3 weeks now. it will happen or we could stop talking about it finally

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Haven't we already gotten a few massive cutters this winter?

A coastal hugger or inland runner that is strong and a mix I could see but the last thing I'm interested in is another cutter. 

Exactly. If all this pattern change ends up being good for is to extend crappy raw 40s weather interrupted by a cutter, that’ll absolutely suck. Clear skies, 60s and take this so called winter out behind the barn then. 

[Winterweatherlover]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The good news is, we are coming to end one way or the other. Little less than 3 weeks now. it will happen or we could stop talking about it finally

Agree with this, within the next 3 weeks either it will deliver or we’ll stop hearing about potential. 

[Nibor]

33 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree with this, within the next 3 weeks either it will deliver or we’ll stop hearing about potential. 

Agree, either it will snow or it won’t. 

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree with this, within the next 3 weeks either it will deliver or we’ll stop hearing about potential. 

What about severe weather threat potential? Or heat wave potential? 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Agree, either it will snow or it won’t. 

<3

[George001]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Wc trough could be a problem. 

I don’t agree that it’s necessarily a problem. It increases the cutter risk yes, but even if that happens there isn’t anything wrong with that. The favorable pattern increases the chance of getting a big storm, which is exactly what I’m looking for. I’d love to get a blizzard don’t get me wrong, but if we get a massive cutter to Chicago that would also be really exciting. Heavy rain, 60 degrees and strong winds is nothing to scoff at.

[Volcanic Winter]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t agree that it’s necessarily a problem. It increases the cutter risk yes, but even if that happens there isn’t anything wrong with that. The favorable pattern increases the chance of getting a big storm, which is exactly what I’m looking for. I’d love to get a blizzard don’t get me wrong, but if we get a massive cutter to Chicago that would also be really exciting. Heavy rain, 60 degrees and strong winds is nothing to scoff at.

Like because I respect your positivity and optimism.

Unfortunately for me if a storm doesn't result in the dawning of a new 48 hour stadial I become rather apathetic.

[donsutherland1]

A storm will bring rain to Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City overnight into Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central New York State and central to northern New England. Albany could see 4"-8" of snow.

After what increasingly appears to be a warmer than normal first week to March, a colder regime could develop during the second week of the month. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City.

For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +6.84 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.086 today.

On March 1 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.385 (RMM). The February 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.255 (RMM).

 

[NJwx85]

The HRRR has trended snowier North of I-87 in Rockland. Has consistently shown 2-4" since the 13z run today.

My guess is that an inch or two might actually fall before a flip to sleet.

Fair compromise between the HRRR, 3k NAM and RGEM.

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The HRRR has trended snowier North of I-87 in Rockland. Has consistently shown 2-4" since the 13z run today.

My guess is that an inch or two might actually fall before a flip to sleet.

Fair compromise between the HRRR, 3k NAM and RGEM.

Probably too cold but I guess we'll find out soon

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030321&fh=5&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030321&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Probably too cold but I guess we'll find out soon

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030321&fh=5&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030321&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

I think a lot of it is dependent on how intense the precip is. A stronger onset could bring about a brief period of dynamic cooling. 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think a lot of it is dependent on how intense the precip is. A stronger onset could bring about a brief period of dynamic cooling. 

RGEM has leaned on the colder side too at least with the sleet line so given how the RGEM/HRRR both look I could see sleet closer to the city than predicted or even into northern parts of the city. I still think mid levels will make it hard to accumulate >1 inch snow south of I84 but if it comes in like a wall maybe.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Welp, next weekend went to shit pretty quick. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Welp, next weekend went to shit pretty quick. 

The look on the 18Z GFS is pretty horrible, I guess still time to change. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow has begun here. Temp is 35.8 though

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The look on the 18Z GFS is pretty horrible, I guess still time to change. 

I wouldn't count on it. When a cutter scenario shows up on both the GFS and Euro it's a red flag. I don't care if it's a week away. 

[vegan_edible]

I'm interested to see where the 0z runs end up, the canadian model has been great this winter, if that holds and the euro shifts that will give me some hope. if not we get em' next year

[Winterweatherlover]

13 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I wouldn't count on it. When a cutter scenario shows up on both the GFS and Euro it's a red flag. I don't care if it's a week away. 

The storm we had on Monday was a cutter. I have no doubt this is going to try to cut but I wonder if it can transfer at some point due to the blocking unless the blocking is now weaker? 

[coastalplainsnowman]

15 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I wouldn't count on it. When a cutter scenario shows up on both the GFS and Euro it's a red flag. I don't care if it's a week away. 

 

Yup, as one with zero credentials and nothing else to go on but personal history, in 20+ years of following these storms, once there's a hint of a cutter, the number of times I came back to the boards later to be pleasantly surprised that it's back at the benchmark, well, let's just say if I had a dollar for every time that happened I'd have close to zero dollars.

Hints of out to sea and then an awesome surprise that it's on an ideal track?  I'd almost put that at 50/50.  But a warm track reverting to an ideal track?  I'd never ever bet on that happening.  I don't care how far out.   Half jokingly here, but put another way: once you see the 7 day forecast on channel X and they introduce the raindrop next to the snowflake, and add the word 'wintry', that's usually ballgame.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

Yup, as one with zero credentials and nothing else to go on but personal history, in 20+ years of following these storms, once there's a hint of a cutter, the number of times I came back to the boards later to be pleasantly surprised that it's back at the benchmark, well, let's just say if I had a dollar for every time that happened I'd have close to zero dollars.

Hints of out to sea and then an awesome surprise that it's on an ideal track?  I'd almost put that at 50/50.  But a warm track reverting to an ideal track?  I'd never ever bet on that happening.  I don't care how far out.   Half jokingly here, but put another way: once you see the 7 day forecast on channel X and they introduce the raindrop next to the snowflake, and add the word 'wintry', that's usually ballgame.

Agree but theres a big difference between the 6-7 day range vs 4-5. If most of the models still show a cutter by 0Z tomorrow I'd agree its over. 

[MJO812]

18z gefs is way flatter and east of the op for the big storm