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March 2023


Rjay
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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it

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Be interested to see what the 12z Euro shows. If Euro/CMC both show a big storm two straight runs it’s probably happening in some form. 

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The exact track doesn’t matter this far out it’s just the storm signal. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it is an inland runner though. 

I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option
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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:


I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option

You said something kind of positive, now I know this is a real threat! 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:


I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option

Midwest/Lakes cutter yes. Coastal tracks have been a rarity for a while. 

I think if one does happen under this pattern then it would be an extreme event. 

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3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

12z Euro is a big rainstorm but probably doesn’t matter this far out, big storm signal still there 

What we don't want is the storm to over intensify like the EURO is showing. In December the "cutter" was so intense it killed the 3rd wave which was (and usually is) our big storm. 

Its fine if it cuts as long as it's not this intense.

Basically, if it cuts we are ok moving forward in the period as long as the strength does not overwhelm the following wave.

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2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

12z Euro is a big rainstorm but probably doesn’t matter this far out, big storm signal still there 

You know the deal with models that shows a cutter. They almost never waver from that solution. At this point in time follow the ensembles and look for trends.

 

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Signal for strong storm is there and confidence increasing on that.  Long ways to go on the details.  Big snows for this forum far from a lock this far out.  Not all blocking patterns deliver the snowy goods.  Many options possible this far out.  Personally my confidence is high on a noteworthy storm over the eastern third of the U.S.    A KU or even meaningful snow (>6") threat is low at this point.  We'll see what the EPS show shortly.  Still interested but not excited.  Will be interested to watch trends starting 12Z runs Monday.

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:


If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point

I mean we have snowed to April before and the pattern is ripe, I am just concerned about a December situation where one storm zapped the atmosphere.

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point

Anything after mid March would be very anomalous. Our chances drop substantially after the 15th. 

Even if the pattern was still decent we would start having issues with getting enough surface cold for snow. We saw that in March 2018

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Anything after mid March would be very anomalous. Our chances drop substantially after the 15th. 
Even if the pattern was still decent we would start having issues with getting enough surface cold for snow. We saw that in March 2018

I agree. There are multiple issues post 3/15, besides the climo ones you mentioned, length of day and sun angle are also big issues
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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Cutter or not I would like to see a massive storm regardless because extreme weather is fascinating and I think we'll def get that. 

Haven't we already gotten a few massive cutters this winter?

A coastal hugger or inland runner that is strong and a mix I could see but the last thing I'm interested in is another cutter. 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Cutter or not I would like to see a massive storm regardless because extreme weather is fascinating and I think we'll def get that. 

I feel the opposite had that in December. If the cutter is average strength then our chances of a snow event greatly increases due to the pattern (also the cutter brings down Arctic air). 

But again, if it's this strong then the third wave will be destroyed and we are left with December.

Anytime you have a historic winter in the SW with an incredible RNA.

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31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anything after mid March would be very anomalous. Our chances drop substantially after the 15th. 

Even if the pattern was still decent we would start having issues with getting enough surface cold for snow. We saw that in March 2018

Again as always it depends where you are in the forum. March 2018 and early April was fantastic here in 2018. Many here saw 40-50 inches of snow during that period.  

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