Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 36 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Until we’re within 48 hrs of anything this winter I’m not excited about it. Not saying this upcoming pattern doesn’t have potential, but there’s also the high potential of something ruining it. Can’t think of any time where a total crap winter was saved by a March blizzard. It's not getting off to a good start tomorrow or for at least the next week either. Can't remember too many big Marches when the first 10 days of the month didn't produce but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 22 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I'd def take 6-12, that's legit In terms of lower amounts I lean the way you've stated in previous posts there is a difference between 3-6 inches followed by rain or 50 degree weather the next day vs 3-6 inches of all snow that sticks around for a little while. Also I really don't take the record very seriously because a lot of the area is already above the CPK number. It's just one spot. Central Park really forgot to measure that December event, it was around half an inch pretty much everywhere near the water and in the city. LGA measured it, JFK also messed it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 1:39 PM, MJO812 said: Which Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 33 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Which Friday? I think that was last Fridays run for tomorrow. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: 1-3, 2-4, 3-6..... dont care let's go for the futility record 6-12..... 50/50 (could go either way) 12+ ...... Let's go for the first footer in March in many decades! Not to beat a dead horse but we missed 12”+ in 3/2018 three times by tiny margins. 3/20/18 it was a few miles NE of us. The 3/13 storm would’ve been if it tracked 75 miles further west and 3/7 had the CCB blossomed 50 miles further east. But March didn’t save that winter because we had a good early winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Not to beat a dead horse but we missed 12”+ in 3/2018 three times by tiny margins. 3/20/18 it was a few miles NE of us. The 3/13 storm would’ve been if it tracked 75 miles further west and 3/7 had the CCB blossomed 50 miles further east. But March didn’t save that winter because we had a good early winter. I thought most of those storms were mixed events, the only all snow storm we had was actually in April. We just can't get the temps to be cold enough in March to have an HECS because of all the concrete. I doubt I'll ever see a footer in March in my lifetime-- I gave up on it years ago. We have to be happy with the 6-8 inch events. The thing is, when January and February are horrible, you know your winter is going to be bad regardless of what happens in the other months. March is for the far northern and western crew as well as for eastern Long Island which is far more rural. We need to be realistic and be happy with the 6-8 inch events, which should be considered about as big as it can get in urban areas in March. In 2018 January was awesome and March was just the topper. That April event was my favorite event after the January blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Big solutions beginning to show up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Big solutions beginning to show up. What would the temps be like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: What would the temps be like? Verbatim that would be a huge solution especially from here south and would be plenty cold-it's not cut off from cold air to the north. But it's one possible outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 The great snowman19 blizzard of 2023 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Verbatim that would be a huge solution especially from here south and would be plenty cold-it's not cut off from cold air to the north. But it's one possible outcome. I hope the other models show something similar, this is so far off that we can't trust any single model outcome. The models have baited us before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The great snowman19 blizzard of 2023 Since we are on the triple la nina train how wicked would it be if this ended up being the reincarnation of March 2001 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What would the temps be like? Likely colder than shown. Looks like DC/Baltimore gets the brunt this time. It's just one solution though GFS hints at that time frame as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Absolute nuke. That's bonkers. We should only be so lucky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Likely colder than shown. Looks like DC/Baltimore gets the brunt this time. It's just one solution though GFS hints at that time frame as well it looks like it gets down to the 940s, wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: Absolute nuke. That's bonkers. We should only be so lucky. This is what March 2001 should have been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: The great snowman19 blizzard of 2023 if this is correct that 19 in his name will mean 19 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Suppression remains my biggest concern. A big sprawling 50/50 could be too much for us if positioned wrong. The somewhat -PNA does help in this regard to an extent It honestly wouldn't surprise me if places in the Mid-Atlantic 2-3x our seasonal totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Suppression remains my biggest concern. A big sprawling 50/50 could be too much for us if positioned wrong. The somewhat -PNA does help in this regard to an extent It honestly wouldn't surprise me if places in the Mid-Atlantic 2-3x our seasonal totals. How? Philly and DC are both stuck with less than half an inch. We can call this the Daylight Savings Storm because this storm comes in just before DST starts lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Pattern looks pretty loaded with potential. The end of the gfs with the ole Gulf miller A. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Models going ham with the fantasy storms. How about a blizzard from GA to the Northeast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models going ham with the fantasy storms. How about a blizzard from GA to the Northeast 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Pattern looks pretty loaded with potential. The end of the gfs with the ole Gulf miller A. That's a bomb on st Patrick's day. Blizzard during March madness tournament. Sign me up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Starting March 7-8 after that clipper system is when things get interesting. That's also when the MJO gets into phase 8 at a high amplitude, AO tanks and PNA starts rising 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 the GEFS has pretty much totally caved to the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W. looks like next weekend is now a legit threat given that the models are kicking a shortwave under the block this is probably the highest potential pattern since March 2018. there will be multiple opportunities for high-end threats 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models going ham with the fantasy storms. How about a blizzard from GA to the Northeast That is the most wild depiction of any long range run this year other than the Christmas storm that ended up cutting. Fun stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Nibor said: That is the most wild depiction of any long range run this year other than the Christmas storm that ended up cutting. Fun stuff. 93 but east. 955mb just inside the bm. Only 300 more hours to go! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: 93 but east. 955mb just inside the bm. Only 300 more hours to go! I love anything that gives me snow but a well positioned Miller A just hits different. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The great snowman19 blizzard of 2023 Jackpotted next Sunday! What could possibly go wrong??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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