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March 2023


Rjay
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36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Until we’re within 48 hrs of anything this winter I’m not excited about it. Not saying this upcoming pattern doesn’t have potential, but there’s also the high potential of something ruining it. Can’t think of any time where a total crap winter was saved by a March blizzard. 

It's not getting off to a good start tomorrow or for at least the next week either. Can't remember too many big Marches when the first 10 days of the month didn't produce but I could be wrong. 

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22 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'd def take 6-12, that's legit

 

In terms of lower amounts I lean the way you've stated in previous posts there is a difference between 3-6 inches followed by rain or 50 degree weather the next day vs 3-6 inches of all snow that sticks around for a little while. 

 

Also I really don't take the record very seriously because a lot of the area is already above the CPK number.  It's just one spot.  

Central Park really forgot to measure that December event, it was around half an inch pretty much everywhere near the water and in the city.  LGA measured it, JFK also messed it up.

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1-3, 2-4, 3-6..... dont care let's go for the futility record

6-12..... 50/50 (could go either way)

12+ ...... Let's go for the first footer in March in many decades!

 

Not to beat a dead horse but we missed 12”+ in 3/2018 three times by tiny margins. 3/20/18 it was a few miles NE of us. The 3/13 storm would’ve been if it tracked 75 miles further west and 3/7 had the CCB blossomed 50 miles further east. 

But March didn’t save that winter because we had a good early winter. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Not to beat a dead horse but we missed 12”+ in 3/2018 three times by tiny margins. 3/20/18 it was a few miles NE of us. The 3/13 storm would’ve been if it tracked 75 miles further west and 3/7 had the CCB blossomed 50 miles further east. 

But March didn’t save that winter because we had a good early winter. 

I thought most of those storms were mixed events, the only all snow storm we had was actually in April.  We just can't get the temps to be cold enough in March to have an HECS because of all the concrete.  I doubt I'll ever see a footer in March in my lifetime-- I gave up on it years ago.  We have to be happy with the 6-8 inch events.  The thing is, when January and February are horrible, you know your winter is going to be bad regardless of what happens in the other months.

March is for the far northern and western crew as well as for eastern Long Island which is far more rural.  We need to be realistic and be happy with the 6-8 inch events, which should be considered about as big as it can get in urban areas in March.

In 2018 January was awesome and March was just the topper.  That April event was my favorite event after the January blizzard.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Verbatim that would be a huge solution especially from here south and would be plenty cold-it's not cut off from cold air to the north. But it's one possible outcome.

I hope the other models show something similar, this is so far off that we can't trust any single model outcome.  The models have baited us before.

 

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Suppression remains my biggest concern. A big sprawling 50/50 could be too much for us if positioned wrong. 

The somewhat -PNA does help in this regard to an extent 

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if places in the Mid-Atlantic 2-3x our seasonal totals. 

 

How?  Philly and DC are both stuck with less than half an inch.

We can call this the Daylight Savings Storm because this storm comes in just before DST starts lol.

 

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the GEFS has pretty much totally caved to the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W. looks like next weekend is now a legit threat given that the models are kicking a shortwave under the block

this is probably the highest potential pattern since March 2018. there will be multiple opportunities for high-end threats

239312D0-5B3B-4F88-A556-808F45363B52.thumb.gif.1b1fc1376043ff5f0e1e9487c81099fd.gif

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models going ham with the fantasy storms. How about a blizzard from GA to the Northeast 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh324-342.gif

That is the most wild depiction of any long range run this year other than the Christmas storm that ended up cutting. Fun stuff. 

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1 minute ago, Nibor said:

That is the most wild depiction of any long range run this year other than the Christmas storm that ended up cutting. Fun stuff. 

93 but east.  955mb just inside the bm.  Only 300 more hours to go!

04301149-6750-404a-9c74-572758dba7c7.gif

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