March 2023

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS kicks the can down the road to around 3/15 for the good pattern now. If it gets delayed beyond the 15th, i doubt it ever happens. Guess we’ll see

GEFS never moved from the 10th. EPS and GEPS still the 8th. 

We may get several small storms, couple moderate or one Large, the op runs are more entertaining at this point.

Yes, we can strike out again like December too snow is never a guarantee, however this looks like the best window all season. We shall see how it shakes out. IMO it comes down to the RNA. Too strong and the look fades. 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 78 (1972)
NYC: 72 (1972)
LGA: 67 (2004)

Lows:

LGA: 13 (1962)
EWR: 12 (1950)
NYC: 9 (1891)

 

Historical:

 

1846 - A great storm hit Virginia and the Carolinas. The storm caused half a million dollars damage, and in North Carolina drowned fifty families and a thousand cattle on Notts Island. (David Ludlum)

1896: The temperature in downtown San Francisco, California, fell to 33 degrees, which was the lowest ever for the city in March. 

1927 - Raleigh, NC, was buried under 17.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. Nashville NC received 31 inches of snow. The average snow depth in the state of Carolina was fourteen inches. (The Weather Channel)

1966:  An F5 tornado, which would become known as the “Candlestick Park” tornado, named after a shopping center in south Jackson, was destroyed by the tornado. One of only two documented F5 tornadoes to strike Mississippi in the 20th century. The worst damage occurred in parts of Hinds, Rankin, Scott, and Leake counties, where 57 people were killed and over 500 were injured. 

1975 - The governor's Tornado&puot; in Atlanta did considerable damage to the governor's mansion and surrounding areas resulting in three deaths and 56.5 million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A massive winter storm struck the Northern Plains Region. The storm produced up to 33 inches of snow in northeastern South Dakota, at Summit and at Milbank, and also produced high winds which whipped the heavy snow into drifts twenty feet high. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in Maine, with 16 inches reported at West Grand Lake and Guilford. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. A tornado at Baton Rouge LA injured two persons, and another tornado caused five million dollars damage at the airport in Lafayette LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and high winds plagued the western U.S. Up to 16 inches of snow was reported south of Seattle WA, and more than two feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Winds gusted to 89 mph at Hidden Peak UT, and reached 92 mph at Peavine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Mild weather continued across the northern tier of states. Highs of 52 degrees at Saint Johnsbury VT, 63 degrees at Olympia WA, and 64 degrees at Seattle WA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1991: A significant ice storm coated parts of central and northwestern New York State with up to two inches of ice. The damage totaled $375 million. It was the most costly natural disaster ever in the state up until that time. Nearly half a million people were without power at the height of the storm, and many would not see their power restored until the 16th. 

2016:  A deadly severe weather event affected the Southeastern United States on March 3, 2019. Over 6 hours, 41 tornadoes touched down across portions of Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. The strongest was an EF4 tornado that devastated rural communities from Beauregard, Alabama, through Smiths Station, Alabama, to Talbotton, Georgia, killing 23 people and injuring at least 100 others. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Birmingham, Alabama. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging         41degs.(35/46) or +1.

Reached 45 here yesterday at 2pm.

Today:    51-53, wind w. to nw.-breezy late, cloudy, clearing late, 37 tomorrow AM.

We'll get tired of the 30's-40's after this.      I would rather just see a 5-7 day outbreak in the 20's with a KU.        This looks meant to mess up spring and produce nothing winter-like in return:

 

42*(94%RH) here at 6am(foggy-drizzle){was 41* at 5am}     43* at 8am.       45* at 10am.       48* at Noon.      51* at 1pm.     Reached    54* at 3pm.      52* at 6pm.

[EastonSN+]

I am starting to see signs of a slightly positive PNA out there in the LR.

Good to see the MJO staying in 8 for both ensemble suites.

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am starting to see signs of a slightly positive PNA out there in the LR.

Good to see the MJO staying in 8 for both ensemble suites.

Yes that's pretty important. You don't need a +PNA you just need a less negative one. 

The March 10-20 period is still in play

My guess is models will continue to trend more favorably as the MJO gets into phase 8. 

[brooklynwx99]

the EPS continues to improve, and the GEFS made a huge shift last night towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to booting the S/W out of the west. gets a lot more of the vort into the Plains. good ENS runs last night

[Volcanic Winter]

Just curious about temp expectations if the favorable heights progression occurs. Looking at 3/13/22 for example here in Hillside and we were 35/21 on the day. Would expect we’d need to see temps move in that direction and start to adjust lower as we move forward? 

Just curious and asking, not suggesting an issue. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Just curious about temp expectations if the favorable heights progression occurs. Looking at 3/13/22 for example here in Hillside and we were 35/21 on the day. Would expect we’d need to see temps move in that direction and start to adjust lower as we move forward? 

Just curious and asking, not suggesting an issue. 

would definitely be cold enough if we get a coastal SLP, not really worried about temps as of now

[Volcanic Winter]

Thanks, was focusing too much on surface temp and didn’t check the 850’s. That does look great and looks better than what we saw all winter. So the surface will cool with a coastal low ripping snow from cold low/mid levels basically. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Looks like tomorrow night turning into a classic maybe brief snow/sleet to rain SE of I287, snow to sleet NW of I287.

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Looks like tomorrow night turning into a classic maybe brief snow/sleet to rain SE of I287, snow to sleet NW of I287.

Yeah, expecting 2-4 inch front end dump up here north of 84 before mixing. It could come down pretty hard for a few hours. 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yeah, expecting 2-4 inch front end dump up here north of 84 before mixing. It could come down pretty hard for a few hours. 

Yea I think 2-4 reasonable expectation to start north of I84. 

[SnoSki14]

GFS starting to get a clue with more ridging out west and troughing in the east

GEFS follows. Not delayed either but moving up in time

[Allsnow]

Still on the all snow train…..

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Still on the all snow train…..

If it were any other winter I would take this look to the bank.

Best GEFS I've seen yet. 

[snowman19]

Looks like tomorrow night turning into a classic maybe brief snow/sleet to rain SE of I287, snow to sleet NW of I287.

Based on the new model runs I believe there’s little if any snow south of I-84. It most likely starts as brief snow/sleet and goes to rain south of 84. The new runs have less than an inch of snow for Rockland

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Based on the new model runs I believe there’s little if any snow south of I-84. It most likely starts as brief snow/sleet and goes to rain south of 84. The new runs have less than an inch of snow for Rockland

You’re probably right but there could be a lot of sleet. The south trend looks real at this point. I doubt it would be all rain anyway north of the Tappan Zee. 

Won’t help us down here, just makes our rain a little colder while Boston makes up and then some for their shafting on Tuesday. I still hate SWFEs and this winter is still a big fat F until/unless this pattern mid month produces. 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

You’re probably right but there could be a lot of sleet. The south trend looks real at this point. I doubt it would be all rain anyway north of the Tappan Zee. 

Won’t help us down here, just makes our rain a little colder while Boston makes up and then some for their shafting on Tuesday. I still hate SWFEs and this winter is still a big fat F until/unless this pattern mid month produces. 

what happened to those bowling ball systems that used to go straight west to east without cutting to the northeast?  We used to get a few of those every winter, they usually exited the coast around the Virginia Capes and they were dependable for 4-6 inches of snow.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to those bowling ball systems that used to go straight west to east without cutting to the northeast?  We used to get a few of those every winter, they usually exited the coast around the Virginia Capes and they were dependable for 4-6 inches of snow.

The RNA triggers the SE ridge response and the storms try to cut. And we have a near record RNA so the impact is worse. If not for the blocking this would cut through the Great Lakes and the whole NE would’ve been a washout. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The RNA triggers the SE ridge response and the storms try to cut. And we have a near record RNA so the impact is worse. If not for the blocking this would cut through the Great Lakes and the whole NE would’ve been a washout. 

Do you think we'd get more of those bowling ball systems (they aren't SWFE if they go straight west to east south of us) if we had a +PNA?  In March the -PNA isn't supposed to matter as much because of shorter wavelengths but this is near record levels like you said.

I'm trying to remember the last time we had one, can't come up with it.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to those bowling ball systems that used to go straight west to east without cutting to the northeast?  We used to get a few of those every winter, they usually exited the coast around the Virginia Capes and they were dependable for 4-6 inches of snow.

The SE Ridge has dominated since 15-16. But we were still able to get some bowling balls during 15-16, 16-17, 17-18 , and 20-21. Short on bowling balls overall since the failed El Niño in 18-19.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is absurd for next weekend 

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

• vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
• decaying -NAO over north central Canada
• highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
• ridging building upstream

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is absurd for next weekend 

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

• vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
• decaying -NAO over north central Canada
• highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
• ridging building upstream

 

I believe this has been holding serv for a couple of days. Let’s hope this continues.

[Nibor]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is absurd for next weekend 

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

• vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
• decaying -NAO over north central Canada
• highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
• ridging building upstream

 

[TriPol]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to those bowling ball systems that used to go straight west to east without cutting to the northeast?  We used to get a few of those every winter, they usually exited the coast around the Virginia Capes and they were dependable for 4-6 inches of snow.

3 years of La Niña is what happened.

[MANDA]

None of the 51 members (or the OP) of the EPS are really excited (as of yet anyway) despite the impressive looking 500 mb. anomalies.  At least as of now none of them seem to be sniffing out anything noteworthy in terms of snow for THIS FORUM.  Control is off the rails for Central and Northern New England and upstate NY but nothing so far is suggestive of a KU type event or any event of note for that matter for our forum.  Control does have soaking 1-2" rain event here next weekend.

Not at all saying pattern is not interesting and does not need to be watched but as of now needs to trend better to deliver the goods this far south.

[CIK62]

Waiting for 3" with only a 50% chance we will get even the first inch.       Needs to shift south by too much to expect.     GEFS is the same.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, TriPol said:

3 years of La Niña is what happened.

we need 3 years of El Nino to balance it out

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

None of the 51 members (or the OP) of the EPS are really excited (as of yet anyway) despite the impressive looking 500 mb. anomalies.  At least as of now none of them seem to be sniffing out anything noteworthy in terms of snow for THIS FORUM.  Control is off the rails for Central and Northern New England and upstate NY but nothing so far is suggestive of a KU type event or any event of note for that matter for our forum.  Control does have soaking 1-2" rain event here next weekend.

Not at all saying pattern is not interesting and does not need to be watched but as of now needs to trend better to deliver the goods this far south.

You're talking about the weekend of the 11th right?

 

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

None of the 51 members (or the OP) of the EPS are really excited (as of yet anyway) despite the impressive looking 500 mb. anomalies.  At least as of now none of them seem to be sniffing out anything noteworthy in terms of snow for THIS FORUM.  Control is off the rails for Central and Northern New England and upstate NY but nothing so far is suggestive of a KU type event or any event of note for that matter for our forum.  Control does have soaking 1-2" rain event here next weekend.

Not at all saying pattern is not interesting and does not need to be watched but as of now needs to trend better to deliver the goods this far south.

I personally don't care what the snowfall outputs are when the longwave pattern is this favorable. something big usually pops there, and it often favors BOS to DCA

compare this to the pattern one day before all of NYC's 18"+ storms. the pattern shown here and the composite are very similar. that's why it's exciting