March 2023

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either

What's wrong with the GFS? The GEFS was always a couple days behind and while not showing the same KU potential, still shows a couple snow events (op) as well as a good pattern (GEFS).

So having the GFS/GEFS as a floor is great IMO.

[MANDA]

Posting these for NO OTHER REASON than to watch trends over the next 7-10 days.

Four of 51 members pop the cork on a 12"+ event centered around 3/11.

Let's see where this heads in the coming days.  Will be encouraging to see more members go up once inside 7 days especially on EURO and CMC.  The trends from day 10-12 into days 5-7 have not been favorable this year.

 

 

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either

Different pattern 

[Yanksfan]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Different pattern 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but to me when it comes to the “big ones” the CMC and especially the Euro sniffs them out 7+ days out, while the GFS lags behind only to catch on as we get closer in.

[NorthShoreWx]

Light sleet in North Smithtown. 40⁰

[Roger Smith]

Complete list of March 1 or 2 day snowfall totals > 4.5 inches

arranged by dates that they ended

(daily record amount shown if no qualifying storms)

 

Storm ended

MAR 01 __ "blizzard of 1914" see 2nd for total _ 7.7" 2005 (4.8" Feb 28, 2.9" Mar 1)

MAR 02 __ 1914 14.5" (13.5" + 1.0") __ 1896 10.0" (1d) __ 2009 8.3" (1.8" + 6.5") __ 4.6" 1996 (1d)

MAR 03 __ 1960 storm see below for total _ 7.0" 2019 (4.0" + 3.0")

MAR 04 __ 1960 14.5" (12.5" + 2.0") __ 6.0" 1917 (1d) __ 2019 additional 2.0"

MAR 05 __ 1981 8.6" (1d)

MAR 06 __ 1916 7.6" (1d) __ 4.0" more fell on 8th 1916 __

MAR 07 __ 1915 7.7" (6.9" + 0.8"), 1923 7.3" (5.4" + 1.9"), 1870 6.0" (1d),

MAR 08 __ 1941 18.1" (2.4" + 15.7") __4.5" 1996 (1d) __ also 4.0" 1d 1875, 12.8" 1st - 8th in four events

MAR 09 __ 1928 5.3" (1d)

MAR 10 __ 1907 6.0" (1d)

MAR 11 __ 1934 5.6" (4.5" + 1.1")

MAR 12 __ Blizzard of 1888 see below for totals

MAR 13 __ 1888 19.5" (16.5" + 3.0") _ 20.9" incl 1.4" 14th

MAR 14 __ 1993 10.6" (10.2" + 0.4") __ 2017 7.6" (prec 1.97")

MAR 15 __ 1906 6.0" (1d)

MAR 16 __ 1896 12.0" (3.6" + 8.4") _ 2007 5.5" (prec 2.03")

MAR 17 __ 1877 3.5" (1d)

MAR 18 __ 1892 8.0" (0.9" + 7.1")

MAR 19 __ 1956 11.6" (3.8" + 7.8")

MAR 20 __ 1944 4.8" (2.0" + 2.8")

MAR 21 __ 1958 11.8" (4.7" + 7.1") .. 2018 (8.2") (1d) 8.4" incl 0.2" 22nd

MAR 22 __ 1967 9.8" (0.8" + 9.0")

MAR 23 __ 1896 4.3" (+0.2" 24th) equalled 1d 4.5" 1883 30th

(there has never been a 2d snowfall total greater than 4.5" Mar 23-31 although Mar 24, 1912 has missing data  for snowfall, and a storm that was cold enough for some of the heavy precip 1.37" reported to have been snow)

APRIL has had a total of seven more one- or two-day snowfalls greater than 5.0" ...

 8.2" Apr 1, 1924

 5.5" Apr 2, 2018

10.2" Apr 3-4 1915 (10.0" + 0.2")

 6.5" Apr 5 1944

 9.6" Apr 6 1982

 6.4" Apr 9 1917 (6.5" incl 0.1" 8th)

10.0" Apr 13-14 1875 (8.7" + 1.3")

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Light sleet in North Smithtown. 40⁰

Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. 

Yup.  Kinda getting used to it.  At least the clear days/moments have tended to be brilliant.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. 

and it was so nice and sunny this morning

[Cfa]

Light rain/sleet mix. Temp 42.

The March sun felt invigorating earlier.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. 

The clouds the last two days have helped keep the snow around longer than I expected although next few days are really warm and rainy so it’ll be gone. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. 

Was just outside and was just mist here. Yep, lousy days ahead 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

 

Had to borrow from the MA forum. What a crazy year!

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will likely surge well into the 50s ahead of a cold front. Showers are possible.

Another storm is possible later Friday into Saturday. From Philadelphia to New York City, the storm will likely be mostly or all rain. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities.

After a somewhat warmer than normal start, a colder regime will likely develop during the second week of the month and could last into the closing week of March. Overall, March will likely wind up colder than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +6.84 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.460 today.

On February 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.980 (RMM). The February 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.729 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Had to borrow from the MA forum. What a crazy year!

Newport Beach? Isn't that near LA in the OC?

It's awesome they deserve it.

Snow looks dirty here anyway lol

[USCG RS]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

[Winterweatherlover]

I don't want to get pulled into an event that I don't like at all but the 0Z RGEM did seem to come in colder with the sleet line very close to northern parts of the city.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

[USCG RS]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This winter moreso than others my mind already goes to the worst solution.

Based on winter trends alone I'd give an edge to the GFS however the ensembles paint a very different picture.

March will definitely be below normal, which sucks, but if it's going to be chilly then at least give me a snow event or two. Nothing worse than a cold, dry or cold/rainy miserable March. 

While I understand the sentiment, this is where the art of weather forecasting truly shines. This pattern is different than what we have seen all year. While there is always the potential that it winds up being a poor solution, what must be remembered is that every storm is technically different. 

For example: Someone driving a motorcycle does so at 120 MPH every day for 10 years thinks that nothing will ever happen to them. It is familiar. They have never had an issue. It is the same thing, road, view, and so on every day. The issue is that the world -like weather- is random and chaotic. Today, the ice storm from six months ago finally presents a crack in the road, or a random pebble is deposited by a car passing through. Or a stick falls because of a 10 MPH wind that finally exerts just enough force to break the branch and it falls onto the roadway. This defect or obstruction in the road was never there before. It is a small defect or obstruction. Most would never even notice it. Yet, nonetheless, it is a defect or obstruction which today will cause a drastically different outcome for the driver. 

Wx is the same way. One little perturbation can change the entirety of the outcome. This is why pattern recognition is necessary, but complacency is 'dangerous.'

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't want to get pulled into an event that I don't like at all but the 0Z RGEM did seem to come in colder with the sleet line very close to northern parts of the city.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

I personally do not believe that we have seen the southern extent of the wintry wx yet. While the NAO is not necessarily flexing, it is still stronger than many of these models are viewing. 

[Rtd208]

Pretty good video by DT (WxRisk) on the evolving pattern,

 

[snowman19]

I personally do not believe that we have seen the southern extent of the wintry wx yet. While the NAO is not necessarily flexing, it is still stronger than many of these models are viewing. 

None of the 0z models have more than an inch of snow even up here in Rockland, most have no snow at all. The midlevels are torched by the time the precip starts. It’s sleet to rain at best south of I-84

[jayyy]

None of the 0z models have more than an inch of snow even up here in Rockland, most have no snow at all. The midlevels are torched by the time the precip starts. It’s sleet to rain at best south of I-84

Yeah, this weekends storm isn’t it for the NYC metro or really any area within 100 miles of the coastline. It makes perfect sense too given where we are in the progression of the pattern change. I commend some people’s optimism that it’ll somehow trend south at the last second, but where we are in the progression of the 500mb pattern is not conducive of such a trend. A newly formed -NAO alone won’t get it done.

The prime window is from the 10th onward with the western trough finally pushing east, a more established Greenland block, a squashed SER, and the MJO pushing into phase 8. This weekend’s storm becomes a bombed out ocean low (hello 50/50) which alongside the Greenland block forms a textbook rex-block around the 10-12th timeframe. That progression is the key to the KU kingdom. This weekend is simply too early on in the process to deliver the goods.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Yeah, this weekends storm isn’t it for the NYC metro or really any area within 100 miles of the coastline. It makes perfect sense too given where we are in the progression of the pattern change. I commend some people’s optimism that it’ll somehow trend south at the last second, but where we are in the progression of the 500mb pattern is not conducive of such a trend. A newly formed -NAO alone won’t get it done.

The prime window is from the 10th onward with the western trough finally pushing east, a more established Greenland block, a squashed SER, and the MJO pushing into phase 8. This weekend’s storm becomes a bombed out ocean low (hello 50/50) which alongside the Greenland block forms a textbook rex-block around the 10-12th timeframe. That progression is the key to the KU kingdom. This weekend is simply too early on in the process to deliver the goods.

But this storm is key to getting the 'big one' if indeed that happens.  People just need to be a little patient.

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Im still in the camp of a off cape may transfer.. then we might be talking wintry weather shifting south. Any shifts east and south would help many in this forum. Not totally impossible that the blocking is a bit stronger then modeled also.

[wishcast_hater]

Yeah, this weekends storm isn’t it for the NYC metro or really any area within 100 miles of the coastline. It makes perfect sense too given where we are in the progression of the pattern change. I commend some people’s optimism that it’ll somehow trend south at the last second, but where we are in the progression of the 500mb pattern is not conducive of such a trend. A newly formed -NAO alone won’t get it done.

The prime window is from the 10th onward with the western trough finally pushing east, a more established Greenland block, a squashed SER, and the MJO pushing into phase 8. This weekend’s storm becomes a bombed out ocean low (hello 50/50) which alongside the Greenland block forms a textbook rex-block around the 10-12th timeframe. That progression is the key to the KU kingdom. This weekend is simply too early on in the process to deliver the goods.

I’m 70 miles North and I’m forecasted for 3-6”.


.

[North and West]

While I understand the sentiment, this is where the art of weather forecasting truly shines. This pattern is different than what we have seen all year. While there is always the potential that it winds up being a poor solution, what must be remembered is that every storm is technically different. 
For example: Someone driving a motorcycle does so at 120 MPH every day for 10 years thinks that nothing will ever happen to them. It is familiar. They have never had an issue. It is the same thing, road, view, and so on every day. The issue is that the world -like weather- is random and chaotic. Today, the ice storm from six months ago finally presents a crack in the road, or a random pebble is deposited by a car passing through. Or a stick falls because of a 10 MPH wind that finally exerts just enough force to break the branch and it falls onto the roadway. This defect or obstruction in the road was never there before. It is a small defect or obstruction. Most would never even notice it. Yet, nonetheless, it is a defect or obstruction which today will cause a drastically different outcome for the driver. 
Wx is the same way. One little perturbation can change the entirety of the outcome. This is why pattern recognition is necessary, but complacency is 'dangerous.'

One of the best things I’ve read on these boards - nicely done!


.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Im still in the camp of a off cape may transfer.. then we might be talking wintry weather shifting south. Any shifts east and south would help many in this forum. Not totally impossible that the blocking is a bit stronger then modeled also.

Meh I thought this would also transfer further south due to the blocking but that's not going to happen.

[Rtd208]

Pretty good discussion from Mt. Holly for the storm later Friday into Saturday.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main story for this part of the forecast is the storm 
system expected for Friday into early Saturday. Guidance 
continues to hint at a slower system overall, which makes sense 
given the developing blocking pattern over the North Atlantic. 
Much of the forecast area may not see any precip until Friday 
afternoon or even the early evening. Thinking is still that a 
primary low will track north and east from Texas towards the 
lower Great Lakes from late day Thursday to late day Friday. A 
secondary low will then take shape Friday night near or just 
west of Delmarva with this low then tracking northeast towards 
Long Island by Saturday morning as it strengthens and takes over
as the main low. This is generally not a favorably track for 
wintry precip for the urban corridor but we still expect there 
will be some snow and ice with this system farther north towards
the I-78 and especially the I-80 corridor. Other threats with 
this system will be strong winds near the coast, potentially 
getting close to advisory levels, with the increasing threat for
coastal flooding as well (detailed in the coastal flooding 
section below). Finally, there will be at least some potential 
for localized freshwater flooding Friday night in any heavier 
bands of rain that set up. 

For Friday, with the slower timing, there could even a bit of 
filtered sunshine in the early morning before clouds thicken and
lower by afternoon. Precip will arrive from west to east and 
could develop as early as around midday over Delmarva before 
spreading east through the rest of the area during the 
afternoon. Temperatures will get into the low to mid 40s with 
mid 30s in the Poconos. Much of the area except our far northern
counties (Carbon and Monroe in PA and Sussex County, NJ) could 
see precip start as rain before temperatures cool through the 
late afternoon into the early evening due to evaporational 
cooling effects. At this point though, continue to think a later
arrival with warmer temperatures should preclude any wintry 
impacts near the I-95 corridor. Farther north though, any rain 
should trend towards a wintry mix near the I-78 corridor and 
especially and north of the I-80 corridor as we get into Friday 
evening. This will be due to temperatures cooling at the surface
as warmer air moves in aloft. 

Friday evening into the overnight is when the heaviest precip 
with the storm is expected as the secondary low develops and 
basically tracks right through moving from Delmarva northeast 
through NJ. This will draw warmer air from the south and 
southeast near and south of the storm's track. In fact, forecast
models are indicating there will be a 60+ knot LLJ near 925 mb 
aiding in moisture transport into the area and also resulting in
increasing winds, especially near the coast where E/SE winds 
may gust 35 to 45 mph. There may even be some embedded thunder 
here as well due to elevated convection from the warmer air 
advecting in aloft. Otherwise, expect rain, heavy at times, 
Friday night with a wintry mix continuing farther north 
near/north of I-78 but with this transition zone eventually 
shifting a bit farther to the north as the low tracks across New
Jersey. The precip should eventually wind down west to east by 
late Friday night or early Saturday. In terms of accumulations, 
still expecting upwards of 1 to 3 inches of snow/sleet near and 
north of I-80 with the potential for a tenth to quarter inch of 
ice accretion over Carbon/Monroe County due to to freezing rain.
Snow accumulations should quickly decrease heading farther 
south of I-80. In terms of rainfall accumulations, the overnight
suite of guidance did increase QPF a bit, with a general 1-1.5 
inches of rain expected for the urban corridor, NJ Coastal 
Plain, and Lehigh Valley. Currently have lesser amounts over 
Delmarva and far South Jersey, where values range from 0.5-1 
inch. Would not be surprised to see some spots get near/over 2 
inches of rain, especially from the I-95 corridor on east. Will 
have to watch for any freshwater flooding issues, especially in 
urban areas. WPC has most of the area in a Marginal Risk for 
Excessive Rainfall. Still a lot of factors at play here. While 
confidence is increasing in totals/impacts, there could be some 
changes as a shift in development or track of the secondary low 
could have implications in snow/ice totals. 

For Saturday, storm exits to the east but there may be some 
scattered lingering showers around over portions of eastern PA 
and northern NJ. Otherwise, expect considerable clouds around 
with highs near 40 over the southern Poconos and NW NJ, around 
50 near the urban corridor, and into the 50s farther south/east.
Saturday night could feature some snow showers up north as a 
weak shortwave passes north of the region. Any snow 
accumulations will be light, less than a half inch. No 
precipitation is expected for Saturday night south of the I-78 
corridor. 

&&

[EastonSN+]

GFS GEFS is later with the good period compared to GEPS and EPS.

Let's hope........

[donsutherland1]

Lowest snow seasons through February and their progression through April 15th. Mean additional snowfall: 3.2". Maximum in the sample: 9.4". Possible insight: Prospects for a very snowy March or a big March snowstorm are probably low, if the historic experience is representative.