SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We care at this point about the ingredients being in place-the decaying NAO block, exiting western trough, cold air supply etc rather than any individual storm track. I do think March 10-20 has the best potential to produce a significant snow event so far this winter. Better than December. I'll give it a 10% chance of producing a forum wide KU storm (10"+) a 25% chance of warning level snows (6-10") and 50% chance at another advisory event (2-5"). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Two distinct threats on the GFS. The GEFS has generally been later than EPS and GEPS in timing - think it's showing up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Two distinct threats on the GFS. The GEFS has generally been later than EPS and GEPS in timing - think it's showing up here. what dates are these potential storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Seeing posters like Allsnow and Forky on board is reason for optimism for March. If Snowman19 ever comes on board we know it's going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Seeing posters like Allsnow and Forky on board is reason for optimism for March. If Snowman19 ever comes on board we know it's going to happen. Agree with Allsnow, great calls all winter and was one of the few that dismissed the "favorable" December pattern when even Forky was on board. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Agree with Allsnow, great calls all winter and was one of the few that dismissed the "favorable" December pattern when even Forky was on board. the pattern was favorable. full stop. its lack of production is a different story 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 also the GEPS still looks great for next week. absolutely nothing like the GEFS, more so following the EPS 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Agree with Allsnow, great calls all winter and was one of the few that dismissed the "favorable" December pattern when even Forky was on board. He also said winter was definitely over since December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: He also said winter was definitely over since December. It has basically been until this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the pattern was favorable. full stop. its lack of production is a different story You are on the exact same page as I am. Favorable patterns do not guarantee snow. Would role the dice on the December look again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what dates are these potential storms? This is a good site for both operational and ensemble model runs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GEFS with a much optimistic forecast than the OP. Signal is there but slightly delayed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 59 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Seeing posters like Allsnow and Forky on board is reason for optimism for March. If Snowman19 ever comes on board we know it's going to happen. Apples and oranges. Meteorologist and blind squirrels 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 jesus christ. KU incoming on the ECMWF, no exaggeration 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: jesus christ. KU incoming on the ECMWF, no exaggeration 240 hours out but yes it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Cmc seeing a near miss and Euro looking like that are probably a good signal for the weekend of 3/11-3/12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 240 hours out but yes it looks good. Too early to get excited since it's fantasy range, but it's good to see that there's major potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Cmc seeing a near miss and Euro looking like that are probably a good signal for the weekend of 3/11-3/12. I guess this is why John (Tip) mentioned March 1888. March 1993 also occurred on these dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: You are on the exact same page as I am. Favorable patterns do not guarantee snow. Would role the dice on the December look again. The reason favorable patterns dont always work out is because you're missing something that needs to be factored in. Thats why they dont work out in bunches. It's not random, there is a pattern to it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: the pattern was favorable. full stop. its lack of production is a different story we gage winters by production. If it doesn't produce it's meaningless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we gage winters by production. If it doesn't produce it's meaningless The discussion was about the pattern. Thats it. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, BxEngine said: The discussion was about the pattern. Thats it. the interesting thing is that favorable patterns that produce and "favorable" patterns that don't produce seem to run in bunches, this is evidence that it isn't random....there is some outside variable that isn't being factored in, which makes the "favorable" pattern that doesn't produce less favorable than it might seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: jesus christ. KU incoming on the ECMWF, no exaggeration Now if that cuts then I'm giving up on ever getting another snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the interesting thing is that favorable patterns that produce and "favorable" patterns that don't produce seem to run in bunches, this is evidence that it isn't random....there is some outside variable that isn't being factored in, which makes the "favorable" pattern that doesn't produce less favorable than it might seem. I don't think that's the case. the weather is inherently chaotic and there's no way we could ever figure out how to decipher that chaos more than 5 or so days in advance with any kind of certainty. it's not possible and luck will always play a factor 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I don't think that's the case. the weather is inherently chaotic and there's no way we could ever figure out how to decipher that chaos more than 5 or so days in advance with any kind of certainty. it's not possible and luck will always play a factor luck may be a factor but if the same thing occurs for several years, then it's probable something isn't being factored in; for example in the 80s, the NW Atlantic was abnormally cold, which led to fewer coastal storms. The more you increase sample size, the better you can analyze data to find causal factors. In very small sample sizes variability (or "luck") is more meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either I agree that you can't completely throw it out, but a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. I'm sticking with the higher skilled majority as of now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either This winter moreso than others my mind already goes to the worst solution. Based on winter trends alone I'd give an edge to the GFS however the ensembles paint a very different picture. March will definitely be below normal, which sucks, but if it's going to be chilly then at least give me a snow event or two. Nothing worse than a cold, dry or cold/rainy miserable March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Thank You 99 The KU term you asked about are the initials of two meteorologists (Kocin, Urcellini) who did a study on severe snowstorms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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