GaWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Apologies if I am being obtuse, however it looks like the entire pattern shifts from an RNA/blocking pattern to a -EPO, +PNA pattern with an east coast trough. Do you see the same? No worries. Indeed, that's how it is looking. But my point was about any assumption that the Arctic blocking, itself, would play out as was projected yesterday considering how the current blocking didn't even start to be recognized by the daily GEFS forecasts until within 10 days. The models have an extra challenge when the SPV is very weak. Look at today's GEFS mean vs yesterday's. Yesterday's had the AO on day 10 (3/10) near zero. Today's for 3/10 has it still down at -0.9. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: How is there a cutter in a pattern that’s supposed to be either big snow or suppression? This winter will find many ways to screw us. 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it made a positive shift in the west. you're going to get weird OP solutions at 10 days out no comments on the CMC? GFS led the charge in this Fridays cutter. 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Op run dude I know I just think it's funny how this winter will find multiple ways to screw us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: basically a storm that qualifies for a NESIS ranking... a notably high-end storm A KU storm in March is probably 6-12 inches though most likely for the metro area, it’s not mid winter. Obviously I’d still love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: This winter will find many ways to screw us. GFS led the charge in this Fridays cutter. I know I just think it's funny how this winter will find multiple ways to screw us use the ensembles and take a breath 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: This winter will find many ways to screw us. GFS led the charge in this Fridays cutter. I know I just think it's funny how this winter will find multiple ways to screw us We just had a snow storm. So maybe our luck has changed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: A KU storm in March is probably 6-12 inches though most likely for the metro area, it’s not mid winter. Obviously I’d still love that. KU in March is way higher than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Beautiful day out there with the sun shining off of the snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: We just had a snow storm. So maybe our luck has changed Snowstorm? I got a little more than inch that's gone already. I think most saw an advisory event at best. Even the worst winters usually deliver something. Good news is this miserable winter is just about over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, psv88 said: Beautiful day out there with the sun shining off of the snow cover Damn near all gone in Hillside. Been standing out here watching it melt, lol. Happy to have it all though, certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Snowstorm? I got a little more than inch that's gone already. I think most saw an advisory event at best. Even the worst winters usually deliver something. Good news is this miserable winter is just about over I had 5.1. NYC only needs 0.7 to avoid futility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Does KU imply anything about track? I think I assumed it also implied a coastal nor’easter with sort of a textbook track for the east coast. If it’s just based on qualifying for NESIS that makes more sense actually. KU (Kocin-Uccelini) is defined by the snow amounts over the number of people impacted. KU has a “near miss” section for storms that impacted inland areas but with a few tweaks would have been massive coastal impacts, like 3/14/17. Blizzard of 96 had 20”+ amounts for every major city except Boston with 18” and had a huge overall area with those amounts, so it’s rated a 5. A storm like 12/30/00 had major impacts in NYC but not many other heavily populated areas so I think that’s rated just a 1. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GFS close too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS close too. We care at this point about the ingredients being in place-the decaying NAO block, exiting western trough, cold air supply etc rather than any individual storm track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: We care at this point about the ingredients being in place-the decaying NAO block, exiting western trough, cold air supply etc rather than any individual storm track. Exactly! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Snowstorm? I got a little more than inch that's gone already. I think most saw an advisory event at best. Even the worst winters usually deliver something. Good news is this miserable winter is just about over Over ? We have this whole month which should deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 31 minutes ago, MANDA said: Meteorological Winter Temperature rankings for Mt. Holly climate sites. Mt Pocono's record warmest winter was still below freezing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: KU (Kocin-Uccelini) is defined by the snow amounts over the number of people impacted. KU has a “near miss” section for storms that impacted inland areas but with a few tweaks would have been massive coastal impacts, like 3/14/17. Blizzard of 96 had 20”+ amounts for every major city except Boston with 18” and had a huge overall area with those amounts, so it’s rated a 5. A storm like 12/30/00 had major impacts in NYC but not many other heavily populated areas so I think that’s rated just a 1. You can also have a KU event for an individual location, which I would say has to be 10" or more. For example, a 10" event for Long Beach is a KU for Long Beach. 20" is HECS, so a 20" storm for Long Beach is an HECS for Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I had 5.1. NYC only needs 0.7 to avoid futility I'm going with JFK numbers, 1.7 for JFK. For record lows always go with the lowest figure, for record highs always go with the highest figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We just had a snow storm. So maybe our luck has changed thats not a snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: KU in March is way higher than that There have been no KU in March since 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: You can also have a KU event for an individual location, which I would say has to be 10" or more. For example, a 10" event for Long Beach is a KU for Long Beach. 20" is HECS, so a 20" storm for Long Beach is an HECS for Long Beach. Not really. NESIS (now RSI) was the basis for the KU canon, and that scale was specifically designed to capture the breadth of societal impacts. You can have a historic snowfall in one city over another, but a KU needs the regional extent by definition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: thats not a snowstorm lol For parts of the region it was. Depends how you define a snowstorm but I'd say from the Bronx/North Shore north it was a snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, Juliancolton said: Not really. NESIS (now RSI) was the basis for the KU canon, and that scale was specifically designed to capture the breadth of societal impacts. You can have a historic snowfall in one city over another, but a KU needs the regional extent by definition. Is KU measured by area of 10" snowfall plus the population under that area? I guess you could use the MECS definition and link that to 10" for any individual location and then keep HECS for 20" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: For parts of the region it was. Depends how you define a snowstorm but I'd say from the Bronx/North Shore north it was a snowstorm. anywhere where it was 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Not really. NESIS (now RSI) was the basis for the KU canon, and that scale was specifically designed to capture the breadth of societal impacts. You can have a historic snowfall in one city over another, but a KU needs the regional extent by definition. by the way two nights of northern lights, did you see anything last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: There have been no KU in March since 1993 I’d have to look it up but I’d think one of the March 2018 storms would count. As for Fri PM/Sat, models say enjoy the rain for most and sleet along I-84. This winter if we get nothing else is still a huge F, but it was deep winter looking yesterday AM here. Definitely picturesque. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: anywhere where it was 4"+ Yep so locations I mentioned meets that criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: I’d have to look it up but I’d think one of the March 2018 storms would count. As for Fri PM/Sat, models say enjoy the rain for most and sleet along I-84. This winter if we get nothing else is still a huge F, but it was deep winter looking yesterday AM here. Definitely picturesque. I guess if you count the entire area, though I am going with the 10" in New York City definition. We could switch that to MECS for NYC in which case that would still be valid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm going with JFK numbers, 1.7 for JFK. For record lows always go with the lowest figure, for record highs always go with the highest figure. Honestly I could kind of care less in terms of seasonal totals and how they are measured because they are often inaccurate anyway but I think JFK is a good representation for Southern Queens, Brooklyn, and Southern Nassau but not the NYC as a whole in terms of tracking totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Honestly I could kind of care less in terms of seasonal totals and how they are measured because they are often inaccurate anyway but I think JFK is a good representation for Southern Queens, Brooklyn, and Southern Nassau but not the NYC as a whole in terms of tracking totals. Yes we see how inaccurate these totals are especially in these borderline events. I would guestimate that the 1.8 figure should probably be around 2.2 or 2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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