EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Latest MJO plots Thanks for this. Still do not know if 1 is good or not in March lol. However WOW in 8! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 KU ingredients: MJO in high amplitude phase 8. Check Blocking in place and decaying. Check Rising PNA. Check Dropping EPO. Check Biggest question mark. PNA. We want it to rise at a quicker pace for a KU. Being in Negative first is great. The rise has to be quick enough. As it has been said, only 1 out of every 10 systems with the earmarks of a KU actually occured. So 10% chance here to keep everything in perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks for this. Still do not know if 1 is good or not in March lol. However WOW in 8! There's a real signal on the March 10-15 time frame for one last hurrah. Very fitting with the MJO plot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Also to keep the KU thoughts in perspective as well, we only had 5 in 30 years from 1970 through 1999. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's a real signal on the March 10-15 time frame for one last hurrah. Very fitting with the MJO plot. Yup. Biggest concern as you pointed out is suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Happy Met Spring everyone! Ahhh and we finally have our deepest snow pack of the year, took the whole damn season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 If the sum depth of all the morning frost deposits on my shed roof exceeds 0.1 inches, does that count as recognized accumilation?.....otherwise, I'm still at zero for the season; very sad. Really hoping for something these next few weeks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I mean 0.7 inches is very doable in CPK. Would not take much at all to accomplish. However WOW on the pattern coming up. Now we have to be cautious as we know a good pattern does not guarantee that success is realized, however we can't strike out twice in one season can we? Of course we can, just ask Snowman and he will clearly lay out all the possible ways we lose in the next few weeks, lol. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Need to see more south trends today otherwise this is a non event for us We’re shut out in terms of snow south of I-84, that’ll be for the SWFE favored areas along I-90 but maybe we can get more sleet if the south trend continues. We’re also not getting a real front end burst since the wave tries to amplify so far west of us. Models mostly time the main precip for when it’s already too warm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We’re shut out in terms of snow south of I-84, that’ll be for the SWFE favored areas along I-90 but maybe we can get more sleet if the south trend continues. We’re also not getting a real front end burst since the wave tries to amplify so far west of us. Models mostly time the main precip for when it’s already too warm here. Yes it'll mainly be sleet. We don't have cold antecedent conditions in place which would give us a front end event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Interested to see if the south trend continues at 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I think the best takeaway here is that there’s finally some cause to be cautiously or reasonably excited for the first time since Dec. We’ve been in nearly an eight week shutout (finally broken for the northern half of the metro), even if snow climo will begin deteriorating, even if there are no guarantees which obviously applies at all times with this sort of results driven hobby, there’s very clearly a reason to be at least somewhat excited again. I’ll take it, personally. Lot of knowledgeable people across all the eastern forums saying similar things. This is it, this is our shot. March is always a depressing month for me, not because of deteriorating snow climo or sun angle or any of that, but because it signifies having to wade through the seventh circle of hell (our extended summer climo) to get back to the cold season, which is frankly the only weather season I care about here. I track severe in the plains and south, sure. I track hurricanes, sure. But aside from the infrequent tropical system to hit us, all of my investment lies in the cold season. In some ways I envy @LibertyBell and his love of summer heat waves. They make me fantasize about a two month trip to Antarctica. With all that said, I didn’t hear no stinkin’ bell, let’s grab a cold one on the way out, yeah? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z GFS appears to have moved slightly north, but not a significant change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, mannynyc said: 12z GFS appears to have moved slightly north, but not a significant change Fv3 would be nice for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 It's time to move onto the next late season opportunity whatever that is. There hasn't been a good model run for our region in days and the storm is two days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorological Winter Temperature rankings for Mt. Holly climate sites. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 really nice trend here with the ULL from the Rex block and the S/W of focus over the last few runs... we've see increased separation between the two features, and 12z is even showing ridging popping up between the two... this would allow for the S/W to get booted E instead of getting trapped W this is what the ECMWF/CMC ENS had, and hopefully it's a sign that they're handling the pattern better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 So close on the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So close on the CMC. so close indeed, but this is a KU setup. near textbook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: so close indeed, but this is a KU setup. near textbook I will ask the question and I hope that some other people want this answered as well but what exactly is KU ? I apologize in advance for my ignorance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: I will ask the question and I hope that some other people want this answered as well but what exactly is KU ? I apologize in advance for my ignorance basically a storm that qualifies for a NESIS ranking... a notably high-end storm 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: so close indeed, but this is a KU setup. near textbook Big cutter on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: basically a storm that qualifies for a NESIS ranking... a notably high-end storm Thank You 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Big cutter on the GFS it made a positive shift in the west. you're going to get weird OP solutions at 10 days out no comments on the CMC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Does KU imply anything about track? I think I assumed it also implied a coastal nor’easter with sort of a textbook track for the east coast. If it’s just based on qualifying for NESIS that makes more sense actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Big cutter on the GFS How is there a cutter in a pattern that’s supposed to be either big snow or suppression? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Big cutter on the GFS Op run dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, mikem81 said: Interested to see if the south trend continues at 12Z The RGEM has no interest in wintry precip for the metro on Friday/Saturday so I’ve basically thrown in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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