March 2023

[ForestHillWx]

Great day for spring cleanup. 

[Rtd208]

Beautiful day out there.

Current temp 63

[CIK62]

First 11 days of April looking more like a HW now than JB's BN.      He was only off by -7 for March's upcoming apparent +2 finish.  

SST's world wide are scary hot he says.....so why call for a BN April?

4/01---4/11:   Averaging 58degs.(50/67) or +8.  {GFS 12Z}

18Z:

Reached at least xxx64xxx  65! here today.

[winterwx21]

High temp of 65 here today. I planted broccoli plants this afternoon. Beautiful out there today. 

[SACRUS]

Day length 12H:25M equivalent to Sep 16th.

[SACRUS]

Up to 65 here a very nice today

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

NYC: 82 (2021)
EWR: 81 (2021)
LGA: 82 (2021)

Lows:

 

NYC: 20 (1960)
EWR: 19 (1960)
LGA: 20 (1960)

 

Historical:

 

1913 - The Ohio River Basin flood reached a peak. Ten inch rains over a wide area of the Ohio River Basin inundated cities in Ohio, drowning 467 persons, and causing 147 million dollars damage. The Miami River at Dayton reached a level eight feet higher than ever before. The flood, caused by warm weather and heavy rains, was the second mostly deadly of record for the nation. (David Ludlum)

 

1948: Good Friday tornadoes moved from Terre Haute to Redkey, Indiana killing 20 people. About 80% of the town of Coatesville was destroyed, and 16 people were killed. The Coatesville Carnegie Library was a total loss. The path was a half mile wide.

1954 - The temperature at Allaket, AK, plunged to 69 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel)

1971 - Parts of northern and central Georgia experienced their worst snow and ice storm since 1935. Two day power outages ruined two million eggs at poultry hatches. Two persons were killed when a tree landed on their car. (25th-26th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front crossing the Plateau Region produced high winds in Utah causing some property damage. Winds gusted to 51 mph at Salt Lake City. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 73 degrees at Flagstaff AZ, 90 degrees at Sacramento CA, 95 degrees at Santa Maria CA, 95 degrees at Los Angeles CA, 99 degrees at Tucson AZ, and 100 degrees at Phoenix AZ set records for March. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - The Easter Bunny brought record warm temperatures to the central U.S. while such records were still welcome. A dozen cities reported record warm readings, including Dodge City KS with an afternoon high of 88 degrees. Strong southerly winds gusted to 51 mph at Dodge City, and reached 55 mph at Salina KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Fair weather prevailed across the nation for the second day in a row. Freezing temperatures were reported in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region in the wake of an early spring snowstorm. Afternoon highs were again in the 70s and 80s in the southeastern U.S., and for the ninth day in a row, temperatures in the southwestern U.S. reached the 90s. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Fair weather prevailed across the nation for the second day in a row. Freezing temperatures were reported in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region in the wake of an early spring snowstorm. Afternoon highs were again in the 70s and 80s in the southeastern U.S., and for the ninth day in a row, temperatures in the southwestern U.S. reached the 90s. (The National Weather Summary)

 

Did this snowstorm get up to our region, Tony?

 

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, temperatures soared into the lower and middle 60s.

Tomorrow will be a cooler day. Showers are possible tomorrow night into Tuesday. Another round of showers is possible Wednesday into Thursday.

The first day of April could start the month off on a much warmer than normal note based on increasing support among the guidance. Overall, the first week of April could wind up near or somewhat cooler than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -1.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.707 today.

On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.682 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.932 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.6° above normal normal).

 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of March are averaging       47degs.(40/55) or Normal.

Month to date is     44.3[+2.2].          March should end at       44.8[+2.0].

Reached 65 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:    55-59, wind e., clouding up, rain late, 42 tomorrow AM.

That's a hot start to April:         Ens. is 30 degrees less at times.

50*(38%RH) here at 7am{was 49* at 6am}      51* at 8am.      53* at 9am.      55* at 10am.      56* at 11am.      55* at Noon.       57* at 2pm.       55* at 3pm.      51* at 5pm.    50* at 5:30pm.      47* at 8pm.      46* at 10pm.

[LoboLeader1]

Reached 61 here yesterday, over night low of 34. Currently 50F.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

This winter really took it outta me. Most weather related depressed I’ve been since the dreadful 19-20 winter. I’m at peace with low snowfall winters, but this was so chronically awful and so temporally near to 19-20 it was just additionally depressing. Took a break for most of the month as it just hasn’t been worth staying engaged.

Few pages back you guys were discussing whether the upcoming Niño would be east based or not. When it comes to producing colder and snowy winters in the northeast, what is the preferred Niño configuration?

I generally just know that a very strong Niño can flood us with a garbage airmass, but am not fully versed in the nitty gritty beyond that. 

I’ve also heard Modoki Niño’s are good for us, which is cooler waters off the western coast of South America I believe? Before it warms up further west? Something to that effect. 

Just curious about what to look for and what we want. Thanks guys. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 84 (1998)
NYC: 83 (1998)
LGA: 83 (1998)


Lows:

EWR: 22 (2014)
NYC: 20 (1894)
LGA: 23 (2014)

 

Historical:

 

1890 - An outbreak of tornadoes occurred in the Ohio Valley. One of the tornadoes struck Louisville KY killing 78 persons and causing four million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1931: A blizzard struck western Kansas and adjoining states was called the "worst since January 1888". Twenty children, ages seven to fourteen, were stranded in a makeshift school bus for 33 hours during this blizzard.

1950 - A three day snowstorm in the High Plains Region finally came to an end. The storm produced 34 inches of snow in 24 hours at Dumont, located in the Black Hills of South Dakota, and a total of 50 inches. (David Ludlum)

 

1964: Great Alaskan earthquake left at least 100 dead in Anchorage, Alaska. The magnitude 9.2 quake is the largest in US history and the second strongest worldwide. Waves reached 103 feet above the low - tide mark.

1984 - The temperature at Brownsville, TX, soared to 106 degrees, and Cotulla, TX, reached 108 degrees, equalling the March record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - The second blizzard in less than a week hit eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at San Isabel CO. Winds gusted to 50 mph at Goodland KS. The high winds piled snow into massive drifts, closing roads for days and killing thousands of cattle. Snow drifts thirty feet high were reported in northwest Kansas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Temperatures rose quickly, then dropped just as rapidly, in the central U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s. In southeastern Colorado, the temperature at Lamar CO reached 91 degrees. Strong southerly winds gusted to 63 mph at Gage OK. Strong northwesterly winds, gusting to 61 mph at Goodland KS, then proceeded to usher much colder air into the area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Two tornadoes were reported, and there were 77 other reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Willow OK and Bartlesville OK. Twenty-six cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Yankton SD with a reading of 84 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Temperatures dipped into the teens and single numbers in the northeastern U.S. Scranton PA tied their record for the date with a morning low of 18 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 60s and lower 70s in the Pacific Northwest. The afternoon high of 65 degrees at Astoria OR equalled their record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1994: The Southeastern Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak occurred on this date. What began as a peaceful Palm Sunday quickly changed to a historic day in weather history when a powerful tornado ripped through southern Alabama and Georgia. By the time the storm was over, 22 people were dead, and 92 were injured. The F4 tornado cut a 50-mile path from Ragland in St. Clair, County Alabama to the Georgia line. The storm touched down near Ragland at 10:51 am. The storm struck Ohatchee than roared across northeastern Calhoun County, passing near Piedmont and hitting Goshen in Cherokee County. The most disastrous damage occurred at Goshen, where the twister struck the Goshen United Methodist Church at 11:37 am. 20 people were killed at the church, which did not hear the tornado warning issued 10 minutes earlier by the National Weather Service in Birmingham. A tornado watch had been released at 9:30 am. Following the tornadoes, Vice President Al Gore pledged to extend NOAA Weatheradio coverage into the areas affected by the twisters, which had previously been unable to receive the alarm signals.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a cooler day. Showers are possible tonight night into tomorrow. Another round of showers is possible Wednesday into Thursday.

The first day of April could start the month off on a much warmer than normal note based on increasing support among the guidance. Overall, the first week of April could wind up near or somewhat cooler than normal, but a cooler outcome is not assured. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +0.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.388 today.

On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.442 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.677 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 84 (1998)
NYC: 83 (1998)
LGA: 83 (1998)


Lows:

EWR: 22 (2014)
NYC: 20 (1894)
LGA: 23 (2014)

 

Historical:

 

1890 - An outbreak of tornadoes occurred in the Ohio Valley. One of the tornadoes struck Louisville KY killing 78 persons and causing four million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1931: A blizzard struck western Kansas and adjoining states was called the "worst since January 1888". Twenty children, ages seven to fourteen, were stranded in a makeshift school bus for 33 hours during this blizzard.

1950 - A three day snowstorm in the High Plains Region finally came to an end. The storm produced 34 inches of snow in 24 hours at Dumont, located in the Black Hills of South Dakota, and a total of 50 inches. (David Ludlum)

 

1964: Great Alaskan earthquake left at least 100 dead in Anchorage, Alaska. The magnitude 9.2 quake is the largest in US history and the second strongest worldwide. Waves reached 103 feet above the low - tide mark.

1984 - The temperature at Brownsville, TX, soared to 106 degrees, and Cotulla, TX, reached 108 degrees, equalling the March record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - The second blizzard in less than a week hit eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at San Isabel CO. Winds gusted to 50 mph at Goodland KS. The high winds piled snow into massive drifts, closing roads for days and killing thousands of cattle. Snow drifts thirty feet high were reported in northwest Kansas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Temperatures rose quickly, then dropped just as rapidly, in the central U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s. In southeastern Colorado, the temperature at Lamar CO reached 91 degrees. Strong southerly winds gusted to 63 mph at Gage OK. Strong northwesterly winds, gusting to 61 mph at Goodland KS, then proceeded to usher much colder air into the area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Two tornadoes were reported, and there were 77 other reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Willow OK and Bartlesville OK. Twenty-six cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Yankton SD with a reading of 84 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Temperatures dipped into the teens and single numbers in the northeastern U.S. Scranton PA tied their record for the date with a morning low of 18 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 60s and lower 70s in the Pacific Northwest. The afternoon high of 65 degrees at Astoria OR equalled their record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1994: The Southeastern Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak occurred on this date. What began as a peaceful Palm Sunday quickly changed to a historic day in weather history when a powerful tornado ripped through southern Alabama and Georgia. By the time the storm was over, 22 people were dead, and 92 were injured. The F4 tornado cut a 50-mile path from Ragland in St. Clair, County Alabama to the Georgia line. The storm touched down near Ragland at 10:51 am. The storm struck Ohatchee than roared across northeastern Calhoun County, passing near Piedmont and hitting Goshen in Cherokee County. The most disastrous damage occurred at Goshen, where the twister struck the Goshen United Methodist Church at 11:37 am. 20 people were killed at the church, which did not hear the tornado warning issued 10 minutes earlier by the National Weather Service in Birmingham. A tornado watch had been released at 9:30 am. Following the tornadoes, Vice President Al Gore pledged to extend NOAA Weatheradio coverage into the areas affected by the twisters, which had previously been unable to receive the alarm signals.

1990 - Temperatures dipped into the teens and single numbers in the northeastern U.S. Scranton PA tied their record for the date with a morning low of 18 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 60s and lower 70s in the Pacific Northwest. The afternoon high of 65 degrees at Astoria OR equalled their record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

Looks like  a big pattern flip, January and February must've been extremely cold in the NW that year.

[MJO812]

Some flakes on Thursday ?

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy with near seasonable to somewhat cooler than normal temperatures. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 55°

Tomorrow will be fair with similar reading. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.1°; 15-Year: 54.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.0°; 15-Year: 55.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.9°

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of March are averaging    45degs.(38/52) or -2.5.

Month to date is    44.6[+2.4].       March should end at    44.6[+1.8].

Reached 58 here yesterday at 2pm.

Today: 48-51, wind n., variable clouds, 40 tomorrow AM.

46*(77%RH) here at 7am{was 45* at midnight}.        45* at 9am.       44* at 10am.      46* at 11am.       47* at Noon.   50* at 1pm.      51* at 2pm..   48* at 10pm.

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Some flakes on Thursday ?

God I hope not. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

God I hope not. 

thats opening day....the snow season is over, we need to move on (to warm and dry weather hopefully)

[golfer07840]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

thats opening day....the snow season is over, we need to move on (to warm and dry weather hopefully)

Giants are in town to take on the Yankees (what a strange season opening series) and the Giants are going to feel right at home with the cool cloudy weather

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, golfer07840 said:

Giants are in town to take on the Yankees (what a strange season opening series) and the Giants are going to feel right at home with the cool cloudy weather

this new schedule is so weird lol, I hope we don't have any of these games with NL teams  in September during the pennant race.

 

[golfer07840]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this new schedule is so weird lol, I hope we don't have any of these games with NL teams  in September during the pennant race.

 

I just looked and LOL at this schedule. September the Yankees play THREE interleague series. Milwaukee (which I still find strange as an NL team, but I digress), at Pittsburgh and then vs Arizona. 

Schedule makers were a little nicer to the Mets as they okay two interleague series in early September. 

 

Anyway, on to spring, enjoy the gardening, the baseball and if you golf, fairways and greens. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, golfer07840 said:

I just looked and LOL at this schedule. September the Yankees play THREE interleague series. Milwaukee (which I still find strange as an NL team, but I digress), at Pittsburgh and then vs Arizona. 

Schedule makers were a little nicer to the Mets as they okay two interleague series in early September. 

 

Anyway, on to spring, enjoy the gardening, the baseball and if you golf, fairways and greens. 

Bud Selig should never have been allowed to be commish, the guy sucked.

Golf is awesome, I live between two courses lol

 

[golfer07840]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Bud Selig should never have been allowed to be commish, the guy sucked.

Golf is awesome, I live between two courses lol

 

Lucky you! 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably cool. Another round of showers perhaps ending with some snowflakes is possible tomorrow night into Thursday.

The first day of April will likely start the month off on a much warmer than normal note. Overall, the first week of April could wind up near or somewhat cooler than normal, but a cooler outcome is not assured. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -6.94 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.776 today.

On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.333 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.441 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably cool. Another round of showers perhaps ending with some snowflakes is possible tomorrow night into Thursday.

The first day of April will likely start the month off on a much warmer than normal note. Overall, the first week of April could wind up near or somewhat cooler than normal, but a cooler outcome is not assured. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -6.94 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.776 today.

On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.333 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.441 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal normal).

 

I just saw a forecast from the CPC on ABC7 that showed the first week of April being much above normal (well, the period from April 5-11).  Looks like trough west coast ridge east coast, and a big ridge at that.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I just saw a forecast from the CPC on ABC7 that showed the first week of April being much above normal (well, the period from April 5-11).  Looks like trough west coast ridge east coast, and a big ridge at that.

 

Things are evolving toward a warmer outcome. Such a development wouldn’t be entirely surprising.

[nycwinter]

love these days of wearing  my coat ski hat hoodie.. ..soon the calender will turn but i will enjoy these days while they last!!

[TriPol]

Can someone please explain this to me?

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, nycwinter said:

love these days of wearing  my coat ski hat hoodie.. ..soon the calender will turn but i will enjoy these days while they last!!

if it doesn't snow cold serves ZERO purpose except increasing heating bills.  I will say I don't mind cool weather as long as it's bright and sunny and dry.....that's perfectly fine