March 2023

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Imagine living in a place like Caribou that averages over 100” a year. So even in a warming climate, a place like that should still see significant snow well into the future. It was their 4th warmest winter and they still cleared 100”. Nothing special for them but would be epic for us.

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015-2016	21.5	0
2	2009-2010	21.1	0
3	2020-2021	20.6	0
4	2022-2023	19.2	0
-	2001-2002	19.2	0
5	2019-2020	17.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
2022-2023	109.3	198
2021-2022	123.1	0
2020-2021	107.9	0
2019-2020	151.9	0
2018-2019	165.4	0
2017-2018	137.2	0
2016-2017	129.6	0
2015-2016	94.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2007-2008	197.8	0
2	1954-1955	181.1	0
3	2018-2019	165.4	0
4	1981-1982	159.8	0
5	1972-1973	153.0	0
6	2019-2020	151.9	0
7	1968-1969	151.6	1
8	2013-2014	150.7	0
9	1962-1963	147.5	0
10	1976-1977	145.9	0

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Imagine living in a place like Caribou that averages over 100” a year. So even in a warming climate, a place like that should still see significant snow well into the future. It was their 4th warmest winter and they still cleared 100”. Nothing special for them but would be epic for us.

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015-2016	21.5	0
2	2009-2010	21.1	0
3	2020-2021	20.6	0
4	2022-2023	19.2	0
-	2001-2002	19.2	0
5	2019-2020	17.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
2022-2023	109.3	198
2021-2022	123.1	0
2020-2021	107.9	0
2019-2020	151.9	0
2018-2019	165.4	0
2017-2018	137.2	0
2016-2017	129.6	0
2015-2016	94.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2007-2008	197.8	0
2	1954-1955	181.1	0
3	2018-2019	165.4	0
4	1981-1982	159.8	0
5	1972-1973	153.0	0
6	2019-2020	151.9	0
7	1968-1969	151.6	1
8	2013-2014	150.7	0
9	1962-1963	147.5	0
10	1976-1977	145.9	0

If anything decades from now their snow average might go up since they’re a long way from facing the R/S line on a regular basis and a warmer climate would likely cause more moisture laden storms making it further north. Meanwhile our climate will become more like the VA Tidewater. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If anything decades from now their snow average might go up since they’re a long way from facing the R/S line on a regular basis and a warmer climate would likely cause more moisture laden storms making it further north. Meanwhile our climate will become more like the VA Tidewater. 

Yeah, their snowfall has been increasing as winters have been warming. If a warm winter for them is around 20°, then even a low to mid 20s winter in the future could still produce plenty of snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah unfortunately a big part of it was timing and an insanely warm January 

as was February.....this area never does well when January and February both strike out

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Thanks, I've been waiting for this!  Looks like LGA is the only local airport that broke 3 inches, mainly because of that December storm!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, their snowfall has been increasing as winters have been warming. If a warm winter for them is around 20°, then even a low to mid 20s winter in the future could still produce plenty of snow.

 

Chris, do you think MPO's snowfall will keep going up too?  This might become a snowfall bonanza for areas with elevation regardless of latitude.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Mount Pocono is at 1900' in elevation compared to 400' for Allentown. Given that all of our events this year featured marginal temps, it's not surprising there's such a large discrepancy. 

Yep, and they even doubled Scranton's total, which is about the same distance north of them that Allentown is south of them, but also in a valley.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, their snowfall has been increasing as winters have been warming. If a warm winter for them is around 20°, then even a low to mid 20s winter in the future could still produce plenty of snow.

 

Caribou is an awesome place to live for more than just that, I heard they have no seasonal allergens there!

 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Caribou is an awesome place to live for more than just that, I heard they have no seasonal allergens there!

 

Amazingly they only have 7400 people

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Amazingly they only have 7400 people

lol "villages" on Long Island have that many or more people

[Uniblab]

7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Amazingly they only have 7400 people

Someday to have 7401.

[MJO812]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Caribou is an awesome place to live for more than just that, I heard they have no seasonal allergens there!

 

Marquette > Caribou 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    48degs.(40/56) or +2.5.

Month to date is    42.3[+1.5].       Should be  44.2[+1.8] by the 26th.

Reached 58 here yesterday.

Today:   50-53, wind nw. to w.-breezy, clearing skies, 29 tomorrow AM.

44*(57%RH) here at 7am.      45* at 10am.        46* at 11am.       47* at Noon.       50* at 2pm.      Reached 55* at 5pm.      46* at 9pm.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will give way to bright sunshine. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 54°

Philadelphia: 53°

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool, but milder air will return on Monday and remain in place through the remainder of the week. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 51.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.3°; 15-Year: 52.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.3°; 15-Year: 54.0°

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2011)
NYC: 77 (2011)
LGA: 75 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: 10 (1981)
NYC: 7 (1916)
LGA: 13 (1967)

 

Historical:

1925 - The great Tri-State Tornado occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S. history. The tornado claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro IL and 148 at West Frankfort IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort IL, and picked up sixteen students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes claimed an additional 97 lives that day. (David Ludlum)

1971 - High winds accompanied a low pressure system from the Rocky Mountains to the Great Lakes. Winds gusted to 100 mph at Hastings NE, and reached 115 mph at Hays KS. High winds caused two million dollars damage in Kansas. Fire burned 50,000 forest acres in eastern Oklahoma. (17th-19th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm in the central U.S. produced up to 10 inches of snow in western Nebraska, and up to six inches of rain in eastern sections of the state. The heavy rains pushed the Elkhorn River out of its banks, submerging the streets of Inman under three feet of water. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Light rain and snow prevailed east of the Mississippi River. Fair weather prevailed west of the Mississippi. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain in California, with heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range. Venado CA was drenched with 5.40 inches of rain in 24 hours. A dozen cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Baltimore MD with a reading of 82 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Heavy rain caused extensive flooding of rivers and streams in Georgia, with total damage running well into the millions. Flooding also claimed six lives. Nearly seven inches of rain caused 2.5 million dollars damage around Columbus, and up to nine inches of rain was reported over the northern Kinchafoonee Basin in Georgia. (Storm Data)

 

2013:  An area of low pressure moving across the region brought widespread accumulating snowfall along with powerful northwest winds to northeast South Dakota. Snowfall amounts from 1 to 4 inches along with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to near 60 mph caused widespread blizzard conditions. Travel was disrupted or halted. Some businesses and schools were also closed. Some snowfall amounts included; 1 inch at Sisseton; 2 inches south of Bristol and at Bowdle; 3 inches near Big Stone City; and 4 inches at Summit. The highest wind gust was 58 mph at Aberdeen and near Summit. The snowfall began between 5 and 7 pm on the 17th and ended between 5 and 9 pm on the 18th.

[SACRUS]

Today : Daylight at 12:H 2:M rough equivalent to September 25th 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Marquette > Caribou 

It looks like the warming winters are helping their snowfall since the Great Lakes are remaining unfrozen longer.

 

 

 

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the warming winters are helping their snowfall since the Great Lakes are remaining unfrozen longer.

 

Good morning bw. In the decades to come, the northern states may develop a “experience snow in the winter” tourist industry. With improved model prediction it could be quite lucrative. As always ….

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, do you think MPO's snowfall will keep going up too?  This might become a snowfall bonanza for areas with elevation regardless of latitude.

 

For some reason, there is no recent snowfall  data for MPO on the NWS and XMACIS2 sites. There are a few co-ops and Cocoharas sites. But there is an incomplete record from any given site. So one year one site is listed and then another site during a different year. So it’s hard to find any extended data for a given site. 

[Dark Star]

29 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning bw. In the decades to come, the northern states may develop a “experience snow in the winter” tourist industry. With improved model prediction it could be quite lucrative. As always ….

While I would love to experience a prolonged lake effect snow event, I don't think you could ever accurately predict the exact location far enough in advance to make arrangements to get there before it takes place?

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning bw. In the decades to come, the northern states may develop a “experience snow in the winter” tourist industry. With improved model prediction it could be quite lucrative. As always ….

While the recent downturn in our area since 18-19 isn’t reflected in these charts, northern portions on the US have seen a snowfall increase with a decrease to the south. 
 

 

[weatherpruf]

10 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Amazingly they only have 7400 people

And the reason is people hate the weather there.

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

And the reason is people hate the weather there.

My bet is that the majority of the people posting in this sub forum would experience culture shock, isolation and loneliness most of the year let alone during a long cold and very snowy winter living in Caribou.   Moving from a large metropolitan area like we're living in to someplace like Caribou would leave most wanting to high tail it out of there after 1 year.  Certainly housing is so much cheaper up there than around here, not to mention property taxes but it is a simpler life without much "luxury".  I've visited once many years ago and I could not imagine wanting to leave this area to move there.   I'd leave this area to move to many other places but not there.

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

And the reason is people hate the weather there.

weather has very little to do with it..lots of cold places have a large population it is about the location and lifestyle that does not and would not appeal to many people..

[jm1220]

59 minutes ago, MANDA said:

My bet is that the majority of the people posting in this sub forum would experience culture shock, isolation and loneliness most of the year let alone during a long cold and very snowy winter living in Caribou.   Moving from a large metropolitan area like we're living in to someplace like Caribou would leave most wanting to high tail it out of there after 1 year.  Certainly housing is so much cheaper up there than around here, not to mention property taxes but it is a simpler life without much "luxury".  I've visited once many years ago and I could not imagine wanting to leave this area to move there.   I'd leave this area to move to many other places but not there.

Quebec City which has the same climo would be way better.

[SACRUS]

 

Sun out and up to 50 nice day

 

 

[Allsnow]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Imagine living in a place like Caribou that averages over 100” a year. So even in a warming climate, a place like that should still see significant snow well into the future. It was their 4th warmest winter and they still cleared 100”. Nothing special for them but would be epic for us.

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015-2016	21.5	0
2	2009-2010	21.1	0
3	2020-2021	20.6	0
4	2022-2023	19.2	0
-	2001-2002	19.2	0
5	2019-2020	17.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
2022-2023	109.3	198
2021-2022	123.1	0
2020-2021	107.9	0
2019-2020	151.9	0
2018-2019	165.4	0
2017-2018	137.2	0
2016-2017	129.6	0
2015-2016	94.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2007-2008	197.8	0
2	1954-1955	181.1	0
3	2018-2019	165.4	0
4	1981-1982	159.8	0
5	1972-1973	153.0	0
6	2019-2020	151.9	0
7	1968-1969	151.6	1
8	2013-2014	150.7	0
9	1962-1963	147.5	0
10	1976-1977	145.9	0

It will probably matter for them in like 30-50 years but for now just get them the moisture. 
 

I-95  was one of the few spots during 2000 to 2011 that was above avg for snow 

[donsutherland1]

Nature has now made an irreversible commitment to spring at the New York Botanical Garden. Below are some photos from this afternoon:

 

[donsutherland1]

Colder air is moving into the region. Tomorrow will be unseasonably cold with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s. A gusty wind will add to the chill. However, the parting shot of what had been an extraordinarily mild winter will be fleeting. Temperatures will rebound into the 50s on Monday with much the week featuring readings in the 50s and even 60s.

No potential snowstorms appear likely through at least the end of next week. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

Overall, it now appears that March will wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal. It is also possible that New York City could see its last freeze of the season on tomorrow morning or Monday morning.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 16, New York City has a high probability of finishing with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 88% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 16 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. The highest seasonal amount in such cases occurred in 1991-1992 when 12.6" of snow was measured. By March 19th, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -4.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.082 today.

On March 16 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.784 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 3.114 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.6° (0.8° above normal normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

.RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset,

  Middlesex, Western Monmouth, Eastern Monmouth, Mercer, Salem,

  Gloucester, Camden, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean,

  Cumberland, Atlantic, Cape May, Atlantic Coastal Cape May,

  Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean and Southeastern Burlington.

* TIMING...Late morning through early evening Sunday.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...25 to 30 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 30s to low 40s.