March 2023

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

March has been the coldest month of three winters, or perhaps more precisely stated, colder than all three winter months, in 1879-80, 1889-90 and 1959-60. 

To answer your question about a similar range of winter month temps and March, 2016-2017 had means of 38.3 in Dec, 38.0 in Jan, 41.6 in Feb and 39.2 in March. That is the narrowest range I could find in the data set in recent winters (for all four months) and it was second all-time; the all-time narrowest range was in 1871-72 (29.2, 28.8, 29.9, 30.5).  However, 1868-69 might have been narrower, we don't have December 1868 but at other locations in eastern North America it was relatively cold, and the means for Jan to Mar were 35.1, 34.5, and 34.8. 

that three month period in 1869 might be unmatched-- it's within a degree across 3 months lol

1871-72 is only off by 0.1 from it but

1871-72 is even more remarkable for having three months in a row average in the 20s and 4 months in a row well below freezing!

1871-1872 was probably a big snowfall and snowcover winter.

[the_other_guy]

12 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Can confirm. I drove up the Thruway to get to Middletown (Orange County) and noticed that driving.

Thruway elevation is pretty low there vs land just to west, so it makes sense.

Still remarkable though! Elevation based storm to a T

[Winterweatherlover]

18 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Thruway elevation is pretty low there vs land just to west, so it makes sense.

Still remarkable though! Elevation based storm to a T

Depends where. There were some lower elevations east side of Hudson River that got like a foot I think. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    48degs.(39/57) or +3.5.

Month to date is   41.6[+1.0].         Should be    43.7[+1.9] by the 25th.

Reached 59 here yesterday.      

Today:    55-59, wind s. to w., cloudy, 43 tomorrow AM.

46*(51%RH) here at 7am.     47* at 8am.      48* at 9am.      50* at 10am.        53* at Noon.     54* at 12:30pm.   down to    52* at 1:30pm.       54* at 3:30pm.      55* at 4:30pm.      Reached 58* at 5:30pm.       56* at 7pm.        57* at 9pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and mild. There could be some showers. High temperatures will reach the 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 61°

Philadelphia: 63°

Cooler air will begin to return tomorrow and Sunday will be unseasonably cold. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.9

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.0°; 15-Year: 53.6°

[MANDA]

Attached maps say nothing to percentage of normal just snow totals from October 1 to March 15.  We're likely done for this sub forum but up north could still catch something.  For NJ it was along/north of Rt. 80 and West of 287 snow season.  Amounts fell sharply once south of Rt. 78. on southward.  Sitting at 20.4 for the season here which is about 1-2" less than map shows.

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Attached maps say nothing to percentage of normal just snow totals from October 1 to March 15.  We're likely done for this sub forum but up north could still catch something.  For NJ it was along/north of Rt. 80 and West of 287 snow season.  Amounts fell sharply once south of Rt. 78. on southward.  Sitting at 20.4 for the season here which is about 1-2" less than map shows.

Amazing to see that 6.5 inch total from Allentown and then 41.6 inches at Mt Pocono....what were they smoking?!  Clearly not cirrus!

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 79 (1990)
NYC: 75 (1945)
LGA: 74 (195)

 

Lows:

 

EWR: 16 (1981)
NYC: 9 (1916)
LGA: 15 (1967)

 

Historical:

 

1892 - A winter storm in southwestern and central Tennessee produced 26 inches of snow at Riddleton, and 18.5 inches at Memphis. It was the deepest snow of record for those areas. (David Ludlum)

1906 - The temperature at Snake River, WY, dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record for the U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1952: The ban on using the word "tornado" issued in 1886 ended on this date. In the 1880s, John P. Finley of the U.S. Army Signal Corps, then handling weather forecasting for the U.S., developed generalized forecasts on days tornadoes were most likely. But in 1886, the Army ended Finley's program and banned the word "tornado" from forecasts because the harm done by a tornado prediction would eventually be greater than that which results from the tornado itself. The thinking was that people would be trampled in the panic if they heard a tornado was possible. The ban stayed in place after the Weather Bureau; now, the National Weather Service took over forecasting from the Army. A tornado that wrecked 52 large aircraft at Tinker Air Force Base, OK, on 3/20/1948, spurred Air Force meteorologists to begin working on ways to forecast tornadoes. The Weather Bureau also began looking for ways to improve tornado forecasting and established the Severe Local Storm Warning Center, which is now the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. The ban on the word "tornado" fell on this date when the new center issued its first Tornado Watch.

 

1987 - A powerful spring storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast States, and heavy snow in the High Plains Region. A tornado caused three million dollars damage at Natchez MS, and six inches of rain in five hours caused five million dollars damage at Vicksburg MS. Cactus TX received 10 inches of snow. Western Kansas reported blizzard conditions. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the northeast Texas panhandle to the Ozark area of Missouri and Arkansas. Up to fifteen inches of snow was reported in Oklahoma and Texas. Snowfall totals in the Ozark area ranged up to 14 inches, with unofficial reports as high as 22 inches around Harrison AR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northerly winds ushered snow and arctic cold into the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Sydney NE and Scottsbluff NE, Cadillac MI received 12 inches of snow, and International Falls MN reported a record low of 22 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving cold front produced torrential rains across parts of the southeastern U.S. over a two day period. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 22 persons, including thirteen in Alabama. Up to 16 inches of rain deluged southern Alabama, with 10.63 inches reported at Mobile AL in 24 hours. The town of Elba AL was flooded with 6 to 12 feet of water causing more than 25 million dollars damage, and total flood damage across Alabama exceeded 100 million dollars. Twenty-six counties in the state were declared disaster areas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Amazing to see that 6.5 inch total from Allentown and then 41.6 inches at Mt Pocono....what were they smoking?!  Clearly not cirrus!

 

Mt Pocono had the highest totals in the Mount Holly zones.

 

Data for October 1, 2022 through March 17, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
PA	MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	47.3
NJ	HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW	COOP	43.2
PA	LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW	CoCoRaHS	42.8
NJ	SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW	CoCoRaHS	30.2
PA	EAST STROUDSBURG	COOP	23.3
NJ	JEFFERSON TWP 4.4 SW	CoCoRaHS	22.5
NJ	HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	21.7
NJ	WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	20.5

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My Pocono had the highest totals in the Mount Holly zones.

 

Data for October 1, 2022 through March 17, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
PA	MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	47.3
NJ	HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW	COOP	43.2
PA	LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW	CoCoRaHS	42.8
NJ	SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW	CoCoRaHS	30.2
PA	EAST STROUDSBURG	COOP	23.3
NJ	JEFFERSON TWP 4.4 SW	CoCoRaHS	22.5
NJ	HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	21.7
NJ	WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	20.5

I'm just down the road from Jefferson Twp. site.  They frequently do a little better with a bit more elevation.  I'm surprised by Wantage just having .10" more than me.  The Highland Lakes number is impressive.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Attached maps say nothing to percentage of normal just snow totals from October 1 to March 15.  We're likely done for this sub forum but up north could still catch something.  For NJ it was along/north of Rt. 80 and West of 287 snow season.  Amounts fell sharply once south of Rt. 78. on southward.  Sitting at 20.4 for the season here which is about 1-2" less than map shows.

This winter was about as climo as you can get. Bad for most south of I90 but horrifically bad I95 and SE.

 

The I84 corridor def cashed in big time in March and looks like got close to average.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

This winter was about as climo as you can get. Bad for most south of I90 but horrifically bad I95 and SE.

 

The I84 corridor def cashed in big time in March and looks like got close to average.

The whole winter was like a normal December where the coast struggles and interior cashes in but eventually the coast and 95 corridor will get theirs. This year that never happened of course 

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

This winter was about as climo as you can get. Bad for most south of I90 but horrifically bad I95 and SE.

 

The I84 corridor def cashed in big time in March and looks like got close to average.

You have to go up to I90 to be near average. I'm 20 miles north of 84 and have 26.5 this year which is still well below average. 

[Juliancolton]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

You have to go up to I90 to be near average. I'm 20 miles north of 84 and have 26.5 this year which is still well below average. 

Yeah, 26.8" here which is just about 50% of average. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I'm just down the road from Jefferson Twp. site.  They frequently do a little better with a bit more elevation.  I'm surprised by Wantage just having .10" more than me.  The Highland Lakes number is impressive.

Higher elevations did better. So the big SSW and MJO 8 favored places that could get cold enough for snow. 
 

 

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Amazing to see that 6.5 inch total from Allentown and then 41.6 inches at Mt Pocono....what were they smoking?!  Clearly not cirrus!

 

Mount Pocono is at 1900' in elevation compared to 400' for Allentown. Given that all of our events this year featured marginal temps, it's not surprising there's such a large discrepancy. 

[Winterweatherlover]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The whole winter was like a normal December where the coast struggles and interior cashes in but eventually the coast and 95 corridor will get theirs. This year that never happened of course 

It makes sense because most of the snow in the interior came in December and March. If the March and December patterns had been January and February it might have been less pathetic…

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It makes sense because most of the snow in the interior came in December and March. If the March and December patterns had been January and February it might have been less pathetic…

Yeah unfortunately a big part of it was timing and an insanely warm January 

[donsutherland1]

FYI, the Thread-ex error that showed NYC had a record high minimum temperature of 87° on July 2 has now been fixed. The correct value (82°, 1901) is now listed.

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

This winter was about as climo as you can get. Bad for most south of I90 but horrifically bad I95 and SE.

 

The I84 corridor def cashed in big time in March and looks like got close to average.

Climo says I should have 35”. I have 8.5 and that’s about the highest in NYC/LI/I-95 corridor in NJ. NYC has 2.3” which is less than 10% of climo, etc. This was just an awful Nina-coupled winter which favors places that “should” be snowier and totally screws people that “should” be less snowy but still typically get 1-2 big and several smaller events per winter. It’s skewed from the bonanza seasons in the last 10-15 winters but getting almost nothing is definitely not climo. 

[winterwx21]

So often chilly weather hangs on in late March, so I'm glad it appears that won't be the case this year. After the brief cooldown this weekend, it looks as if we're gonna see a pretty long period of near 60 degree weather starting tuesday next week. That's great timing for starting the garden with the cool season vegetables. 

[matt8204]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

So often chilly weather hangs on in late March, so I'm glad it appears that won't be the case this year. After the brief cooldown this weekend, it looks as if we're gonna see a pretty long period of near 60 degree weather starting tuesday next week. That's great timing for starting the garden with the cool season vegetables. 

I'll take it.  Not a fan of those delayed springs we've seen lately or those years where we just go right into the heat.

[hooralph]

What is this from NYRR??? low 40s at 7-8 AM in mid March is exactly seasonal. Lol. I ran in 2015,16 and 17 and the temp was between low 30s and upper 30s… 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Climo says I should have 35”. I have 8.5 and that’s about the highest in NYC/LI/I-95 corridor in NJ. NYC has 2.3” which is less than 10% of climo, etc. This was just an awful Nina-coupled winter which favors places that “should” be snowier and totally screws people that “should” be less snowy but still typically get 1-2 big and several smaller events per winter. It’s skewed from the bonanza seasons in the last 10-15 winters but getting almost nothing is definitely not climo. 

I meant climo in terms of how it was distributed, NW to SE differences if that makes sense? Not saying everyone got anywhere near climo amount of snow. 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, hooralph said:

What is this from NYRR??? low 40s at 7-8 AM in mid March is exactly seasonal. Lol. I ran in 2015,16 and 17 and the temp was between low 30s and upper 30s… 

 

The forecast low for Sunday is 30 and a high of 43. 7am would likely be between 32 and 35

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

So often chilly weather hangs on in late March, so I'm glad it appears that won't be the case this year. After the brief cooldown this weekend, it looks as if we're gonna see a pretty long period of near 60 degree weather starting tuesday next week. That's great timing for starting the garden with the cool season vegetables. 

Weren’t the long medium range models showing snow threats next week? Now 60s? What a joke these models are. 

[Roger Smith]

Think positive, it's not that the models are getting the weather wrong, it's the weather getting the models wrong. NYC would be at 50" if the weather would just follow the guidance.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Think positive, it's not that the models are getting the weather wrong, it's the weather getting the models wrong. NYC would be at 50" if the weather would just follow the guidance.

Yeah, we would average 50”-100” a year if all the more aggressive modeled snowfall verified.

 

[donsutherland1]

Early clouds will yield to sunshine tomorrow. It will turn breezy and a brief shot of cold will overspread the region for Sunday. Afterward, temperatures will rebound.

Model support has continued to increase for a sustained turn toward milder weather next week. Some uncertainty still exists, but the overall probability that March could finish near or somewhat warmer than normal has increased dramatically in recent days.

No potential snowstorms appear likely through at least the end of next week. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new low seasonal snowfall record.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 16, New York City has a high probability of finishing with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 88% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 16 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. The highest seasonal amount in such cases occurred in 1991-1992 when 12.6" of snow was measured. By March 19th, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -4.64 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.087 today.

On March 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 3.125 (RMM). The March 14-adjusted amplitude was 3.532 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.3° (0.5° above normal normal).

 

[MJO812]