March 2023

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 79 (2007)
NYC: 75 (1946)
LGA: 75 (1946)


Lows:
 

EWR: 17 (1993)
NYC: 12 (1888)
LGA: 18 (1993)

 

Historical:

 

1870 - The term blizzard was first applied to a storm which produced heavy snow and high winds in Minnesota and Iowa. (David Ludlum)

1933: A deadly tornado outbreak affected the Middle Tennessee region, including Nashville, on this day. The outbreak, which produced five or more tornadoes, killed 44 people and injured at least 461 others. The strongest tornado, F3, cut a path through the center of Nashville. About 1,400 homes were damaged or destroyed. Windows were blown out of the State Capitol Building.

 

1935: Suffocating dust storms frequently occurred in southeast Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and tenants deserted many rural homes.  

1944 - A single storm brought a record 21.6 inches of snow to Salt Lake City UT. (The Weather Channel)

1960 - Northern Georgia was between snowstorms. Gainesville GA received 17 inches of snow during the month, and reported at least a trace of snow on the ground 22 days in March. Snow was on roofs in Hartwell GA from the 2nd to the 29th. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm in the western U.S. produced 15 inches of snow in the Lake Tahoe Basin of Nevada, and wind gusts to 50 mph at Las Vegas NV. Thunderstorms in the Sacramento Valley of California spawned a tornado which hit a turkey farm near Corning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region continued to produce heavy snow in northwest Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, and produced up to 14 inches of snow in northeast Ohio. Poplar WI reported 27 inches of snow in two days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - High winds in Colorado and Wyoming gusted above 120 mph at Horsetooth Heights CO. High winds in the Central Plains sharply reduced visibilities in blowing dust as far east as Kansas City MO. Winds gusting to 72 mph at Hill City KS reduced the visibility to a city block in blowing dust. Soil erosion in northwest Kansas damaged nearly five million acres of wheat. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Fifty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s from the Gulf coast to the Great Lakes Region. Charleston WV was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 89 degrees. It was the fourth of five consecutive days with record warm tempeatures for many cities in the eastern U.S. There were 283 daily record highs reported in the central and eastern U.S. during between the 11th and the 15th of March. (The National Weather Summary)

 

 2002:  Heavy snow of 6 to 16 inches fell across parts of central and northeast South Dakota from the early morning to the evening hours. Some freezing rain fell across parts of the area before changing over to snow. Also, the winds increased from the north resulting in blowing snow and reduced visibilities. The combination of ice, heavy snow, and blowing snow resulted in challenging travel conditions. There were several accidents across the area, along with many vehicles sliding off the road. Schools either started late or were closed. Some snowfall amounts included, 6 inches at Blunt, 7 inches at Murdo, 8 inches at Stephan and Clark, 9 inches at Gann Valley and Miller, and 11 inches at Highmore and Watertown. Locations with a foot or more of snowfall included, 12 inches at Hayti and Milbank, 14 inches at Castlewood and Presho, 15 inches at Clear Lake, and 16 inches at Kennebec.

2007 - The temperature in Concord, NH, reaches a record high of 74 degrees less than one week after a record low temperature of 7 degrees below zero on March 8, an 81 degree temperature swing in six days.

 

2008: An EF2 tornado moved through downtown Atlanta, Georgia, shortly before 10 pm, damaging the Georgia Dome where the SEC men's basketball tournament was underway. 

[cleetussnow]

It's a weather board.  Don't shoot the messenger but this is a Miller A right where we want it at this time.

[mannynyc]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

It's a weather board.  Don't shoot the messenger but this is a Miller A right where we want it at this time.

The GFS has been in and out for a perfect coastal storm for this time period. Would like more ensemble support but this is still in a reasonable window. 

[matt8204]

Just now, mannynyc said:

The GFS has been in and out for a perfect coastal storm for this time period. Would like more ensemble support but this is still in a reasonable window. 

They're gonna suck us in again, aren't they?

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

It's a weather board.  Don't shoot the messenger but this is a Miller A right where we want it at this time.

I'll make sure the sump pumps are working.

[vegan_edible]

someone take this winter outback and ol' yeller this thing. we'll get em next season

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

someone take this winter outback and ol' yeller this thing. we'll get em next season

what happened to ol' yeller, I thought he went to an animal sanctuary

 

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to ol' yeller, I thought he went to an animal sanctuary

 

we can send winter 23 to the same one lmao

[Winterweatherlover]

4 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

It's a weather board.  Don't shoot the messenger but this is a Miller A right where we want it at this time.

Cmc and euro both show a big storm too around that time but its rain for I95 and given this winter and time of year no reason to believe otherwise. 

[Stormlover74]

We've now had the same amount of sub 40 degree days as January 

[donsutherland1]

As had been a possibility prior to the big nor'easter, New York City picked up no measurable snowfall from the storm. Places less than 30 miles outside of the City such as Rye Brook saw the ground whitened. As a result, New York City remains on a path that could culminate in its lowest seasonal snowfall on record.

After a blustery day tomorrow, milder air will return to the region. Thursday through Saturday could see readings reach the 50s in much of the region. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -6.89 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.616 today.

On March 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.161 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 4.197 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.5° (0.3° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

Here's where 2022-2023 stands following today's lack of measurable snowfall in New York City:

[North and West]

They're gonna suck us in again, aren't they?

.

[donsutherland1]

The progression of New York City's record streaks without daily snowfall of 1" or above:

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The progression of New York City's record streaks without daily snowfall of 1" or above:

Beyond depressing. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

.

The only memorable line in that whole mess of a movie....I don't even consider it one of the Godfather movies.

[jayyy]

Odds/bingo board on what will mess that storm up? 

Either the NS or that 1030-1040 high (depending on the model) not being there come game time.

[CentralNJSnowman]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The progression of New York City's record streaks without daily snowfall of 1" or above:

Good chance that it's going to be well above 600 by the start of next winter.

Also, that first 'record' is only there because they started counting at the beginning of 1869.  Obviously there's a streak of 200+ days from about April-Nov every year.

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Good chance that it's going to be well above 600 by the start of next winter.

Also, that first 'record' is only there because they started counting at the beginning of 1869.  Obviously there's a streak of 200+ days from about April-Nov every year.

Well all records are limited by recorded history or scientific findings. It's like saying someone has a world record in the 100 meters but we've only been keeping records for a hundred years. Maybe someone in the Roman Empire beat that record once.....

[CentralNJSnowman]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well all records are limited by recorded history or scientific findings. It's like saying someone has a world record in the 100 meters but we've only been keeping records for a hundred years. Maybe someone in the Roman Empire beat that record once.....

You're missing my point.  

If they started record keeping 3 months LATER, then the initial record would be 200+ days because it would go from April to November.  The problem isn't what year they started the record keeping, it's what day of the year they started, and the fact that all subsequent records include Spring+Summer+Fall, while the initial record is based on a stretch in the middle of winter.  

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Good chance that it's going to be well above 600 by the start of next winter.

Also, that first 'record' is only there because they started counting at the beginning of 1869.  Obviously there's a streak of 200+ days from about April-Nov every year.

it's a shame because records like that have been kept in our area going back to the 1700s and there have been snowier years than the ones in central park recorded history, as a matter of new york city likely had 100 inches of snow just a few years before that in the mid 1860s

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well all records are limited by recorded history or scientific findings. It's like saying someone has a world record in the 100 meters but we've only been keeping records for a hundred years. Maybe someone in the Roman Empire beat that record once.....

it's a flawed record because just a few years before that new york city had 100 inches of snow but because it was measured in a different part of the city (The Battery I think, where it usually snows less than at the park) it doesn't get taken into account.

Real snowfall history of NYC and PHL goes back to the 1700s and both have recorded multiple seasons of 100 inch snowfall seasons.

 

[Njweathered]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As had been a possibility prior to the big nor'easter, New York City picked up no measurable snowfall from the storm. Places less than 30 miles outside of the City such as Rye Brook saw the ground whitened. As a result, New York City remains on a path that could culminate in its lowest seasonal snowfall on record.

After a blustery day tomorrow, milder air will return to the region. Thursday through Saturday could see readings reach the 50s in much of the region. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -6.89 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.616 today.

On March 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.161 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 4.197 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.5° (0.3° below normal).

 

Thanks, Don.

Any idea how the winters *after* those lowest snowfall winters made out? Is it a mixed bag of N, AN, BN, or is there any overwhelming trend?  I know it’s a small sample. Thanks.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Njweathered said:

Thanks, Don.

Any idea how the winters *after* those lowest snowfall winters made out? Is it a mixed bag of N, AN, BN, or is there any overwhelming trend?  I know it’s a small sample. Thanks.

 

a couple of times we've seen back to back single digit snowfall winters and even three out of four seasons in one stretch

 

[MJO812]

Next threat?

[lee59]

NYC is not a good representation of our area. If you live in the city itself then obviously it is good for you. The UHI affect is so strong. There nighttime temperatures are sometimes 10 degrees warmer than my area and I am not one of the colder places in our area. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

NYC is not a good representation of our area. If you live in the city itself then obviously it is good for you. The UHI affect is so strong. There nighttime temperatures are sometimes 10 degrees warmer than my area and I am not one of the colder places in our area. 

NYC is the worst place to live in NY.

If only we got ocean effect snow here

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Good chance that it's going to be well above 600 by the start of next winter.

Also, that first 'record' is only there because they started counting at the beginning of 1869.  Obviously there's a streak of 200+ days from about April-Nov every year.

Yes, that’s correct. In included it, because I started from the beginning of NYC’s record.

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, Njweathered said:

Thanks, Don.

Any idea how the winters *after* those lowest snowfall winters made out? Is it a mixed bag of N, AN, BN, or is there any overwhelming trend?  I know it’s a small sample. Thanks.

 

It’s mixed.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s mixed.

If you just go by single digit snowfalls, I think it's just low and middling, you really dont see any big snowfall years after single digit snowfall winters.  Average is probably the best we can hope for --unless-- we get a moderate el nino and in that case we can always root for 2002-03 lol