March 2023

[Winterweatherlover]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Good idea 

The pattern for the last week of March does look interesting but it's the last week of March and I'm sure will find a way to fail us. Probably just a lot of coastals with cold rain storms.    

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I’m not unless it shows something real inside 4 days. 

This is how I feel now. We're now down to a Hail Mary for this winter. It's not impossible, but snow events in late March and early April for our area are highly anomalous. So I'm not tracking anymore unless we have a legitimate threat that's only a few days away. 

I hope it warms up in time for Spring planting during the last week of March. Looking forward to getting out there and planting lettuce, broccoli and peas. Hopefully we'll have 60 degree weather during the last week of the month, but I know chilly weather often stubbornly hangs on during early Spring. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 86 (1990)
NYC: 85 (1990)
LGA: 83 (1990)
 

 

Lows:

EWR: 18 (1948)
NYC: 6 (1888)
LGA: 19 (2014)

 

Historical:

 

1907 - A storm produced a record 5.22 inches of rain in 24 hours at Cincinnati, OH. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1951 - The state of Iowa experienced a record snowstorm. The storm buried Iowa City under 27 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1977 - Baltimore, MD, received an inch of rain in eight minutes. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, and the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. Mount Rose NV received 18 inches of new snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Plateau Region to the Appalachians. Chadron NE, recently buried 33 inches of snow, was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 19 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Residents of the southern U.S. viewed a once in a life-time display of the Northern Lights. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southwestern U.S. The record high of 88 degrees at Tucson AZ was their seventh in a row. In southwest Texas, the temperature at Sanderson soared from 46 degrees at 8 AM to 90 degrees at 11 AM.

1989: Residents of the southern U.S. viewed a once in a lifetime display of the Northern Lights. This solar storm also caused the entire province of Quebec, Canada, to suffer an electrical power blackout.(The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska during the day, and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one which tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a life span of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars damage

[MJO812]

Do it again

[TriPol]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Do it again

 No more, please. I'm tired of chasing missed opportunities. Please bring back 70 degrees and sunshine. kthx

[cleetussnow]

This winter needs to end.  Never before have I wanted spring to get here faster.  

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

This winter needs to end.  Never before have I wanted spring to get here faster.  

Yep. These threats that inevitably fail are more rounds of nails screeching the chalkboard. 

[Winterweatherlover]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Do it again

I probably shouldn’t microanalyze hour 210 but it’s already a red flag that with that track the 32 degree line is so far north. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 86 (1990)
NYC: 85 (1990)
LGA: 83 (1990)
 

 

Lows:

EWR: 18 (1948)
NYC: 6 (1888)
LGA: 19 (2014)

 

Historical:

 

1907 - A storm produced a record 5.22 inches of rain in 24 hours at Cincinnati, OH. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1951 - The state of Iowa experienced a record snowstorm. The storm buried Iowa City under 27 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1977 - Baltimore, MD, received an inch of rain in eight minutes. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, and the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. Mount Rose NV received 18 inches of new snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Plateau Region to the Appalachians. Chadron NE, recently buried 33 inches of snow, was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 19 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Residents of the southern U.S. viewed a once in a life-time display of the Northern Lights. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southwestern U.S. The record high of 88 degrees at Tucson AZ was their seventh in a row. In southwest Texas, the temperature at Sanderson soared from 46 degrees at 8 AM to 90 degrees at 11 AM.

1989: Residents of the southern U.S. viewed a once in a lifetime display of the Northern Lights. This solar storm also caused the entire province of Quebec, Canada, to suffer an electrical power blackout.(The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska during the day, and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one which tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a life span of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars damage

March heat in 1990, spring break was awesome right here at home

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Do it again

do what again?

[donsutherland1]

A large storm will continue to impact the region through tomorrow. However, on account of a shortage of cold air and the storm's track and development, snowfall amounts in Philadelphia, New York City, and Newark will be less than an inch. There remains some possibility that New York City might pick up little or no measurable snowfall. The far northern and western suburbs will likely see 4"-8" of snow. Parts of central New York State, upstate New York, and central New England have a chance to see 1-2 foot amounts.

Milder air will return to the region for several days following midweek. Afterward, it will again turn late during the weekend.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -14.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.438 today.

On March 11 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.200 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 4.310 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (0.5° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A large storm will continue to impact the region through tomorrow. However, on account of a shortage of cold air and the storm's track and development, snowfall amounts in Philadelphia, New York City, and Newark will be less than an inch. There remains some possibility that New York City might pick up little or no measurable snowfall. The far northern and western suburbs will likely see 4"-8" of snow. Parts of central New York State, upstate New York, and central New England have a chance to see 1-2 foot amounts.

Milder air will return to the region for several days following midweek. Afterward, it will again turn late during the weekend.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -14.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.438 today.

On March 11 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.200 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 4.310 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (0.5° below normal).

 

Don I see you hinted at colder weather returning after this weekend, do you see more snowfall opportunities on the horizon after this one?

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Rain and snow will give way to snow. New York City will see 1” or less. Nearby suburbs could pick up 1”-3”. Distant northern and western suburbs remain in line for 4”-8”. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and perhaps lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 39°

Newark: 40°

Philadelphia: 41°

Milder weather will return Thursday. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.9

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.9°; 15-Year: 52.4°

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I see you hinted at colder weather returning after this weekend, do you see more snowfall opportunities on the horizon after this one?

Right now, there’s only a low probability. The cooler weather will still be too mild for snow, as seasonal norms are now nearing 50 and will be above 50 in coming days.

[jayyy]

6z GFS for 3/22. DC to NYC gets crushed.

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

6z GFS for 3/22. DC to NYC gets crushed.

Euro has a storm as well. 

[North and West]

6z GFS for 3/22. DC to NYC gets crushed.

.

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, jayyy said:

6z GFS for 3/22. DC to NYC gets crushed.

Odds/bingo board on what will mess that storm up? 

[North and West]

Odds/bingo board on what will mess that storm up? 

.

[Nibor]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Odds/bingo board on what will mess that storm up? 

The cherry on top of this winter would be 12 inches of white rain. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

6z GFS for 3/22. DC to NYC gets crushed.

Don't hold your breath on that one.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Right now, there’s only a low probability. The cooler weather will still be too mild for snow, as seasonal norms are now nearing 50 and will be above 50 in coming days.

Don could it be that today's the last day with a high of 39 or lower?

 

[snowman19]

6z GFS for 3/22. DC to NYC gets crushed.

Good luck and God speed!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Good luck and God speed!

sounds like The Time Machine

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    42degs.(36/48) or -2.5.

Month to date is     41.9[+1.7].        Should be   41.9[+0.2] by the 22nd.

Reached 48 here yesterday at 2 pm.

Today:    39-41, wind w.-breezy, rain/wet snow till sunset, 32 tomorrow AM.

36*(91%RH) here at 7am.     35* at 10am.     34* at Noon.       33* at 7pm.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging    42degs.(36/48) or -2.5.

Month to date is     41.9[+1.7].        Should be   41.9[+0.2] by the 22nd.

Reached 48 here yesterday at 2 pm.

Today:    39-41, wind w.-breezy, rain/wet snow till sunset, 32 tomorrow AM.

36*(91%RH) here at 7am.

Basically the last three months have averaged 42 degrees

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Odds/bingo board on what will mess that storm up? 

1. Late March 

 

I’m sure more problems will be identified as we get closer. 

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don could it be that today's the last day with a high of 39 or lower?

 

That's certainly possible. It's not assured, yet. But the long-range guidance is generally in the 40s and 50s.

[Wannabehippie]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I see you hinted at colder weather returning after this weekend, do you see more snowfall opportunities on the horizon after this one?

With average temps around 50 now, you need a deep arctic blast that will lower temps to 20 degrees below normal to get any snowfall opportunities going forward for NYC.

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

With average temps around 50 now, you need a deep arctic blast that will lower temps to 20 degrees below normal to get any snowfall opportunities going forward for NYC.

There were some good numbers put up showing that the only winters that had significant snows beyond March 24th were winters that had been colder/snowier than normal already.

So there has to be a residual build up of cold air on our side of the globe to get late season snowfalls.