March 2023

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Rain and snow will end across the region. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 46°

Somewhat cooler than normal to near seasonable readings will likely prevail into the middle of next week. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.1°; 15-Year: 48.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 49.1°; 15-Year: 49.9

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.9°; 15-Year: 51.3°

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR:  75 (2021)
NYC: 73 (1977)
LGA: 70 (1977)


Lows:

 

EWR:14 (1960)
NYC:14 (1960)
LGA: 15 (1960)

Historical:

1888: The Great Blizzard of 1888 paralyzed the east coast from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine on March 11 through the 14th. The blizzard dumped as much as 55 inches of snow in some areas, and snowdrifts of 30 to 40 feet were reported. An estimated 400 people died from this blizzard. 


 

1911 - Tamarack, CA, reported 451 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the U.S. (David Ludlum)

1948 - Record cold followed in the wake of a Kansas blizzard. Lows of -25 degrees at Oberlin, Healy and Quinter established a state record for the month of March. Lows of -15 at Dodge City, -11 at Concordia, and -3 at Wichita were also March records. (The Weather Channel)

1953: An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. Seventeen people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

1962 - One of the most paralyzing snowstorms in decades produced record March snowfalls in Iowa. Four feet of snow covered the ground at Inwood following the storm. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., and a storm over the Gulf of Mexico spread rain and sleet and snow into the Appalachian Region. Sleet was reported in southern Mississippi. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A blizzard raged across the north central U.S. Chadron NE was buried under 33 inches of snow, up to 25 inches of snow was reported in eastern Wyoming, and totals in the Black Hills of South Dakota ranged up to 69 inches at Lead. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Mullen NE. Snow drifts thirty feet high were reported around Lusk WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-one cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 95 degrees at Lubbock TX equalled their record for March. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Forty-four cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 71 degrees at Dickinson ND and Williston ND, and 84 degrees at Lynchburg VA, Charleston WV and Huntington WV. Augusta GA and Columbia SC tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation with record highs of 88 degrees. A vigorous cold front produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains of Utah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - Phoenix's record run for dry days finally ends at 143 days. The last measured rain fell on October 18, 2005. Not only did the rain break the dry spell, the 1.40 inches that fell was a record amount for the date.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR:  75 (2021)
NYC: 73 (1977)
LGA: 70 (1977)


Lows:

 

EWR:14 (1960)
NYC:14 (1960)
LGA: 15 (1960)

Historical:

1888: The Great Blizzard of 1888 paralyzed the east coast from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine on March 11 through the 14th. The blizzard dumped as much as 55 inches of snow in some areas, and snowdrifts of 30 to 40 feet were reported. An estimated 400 people died from this blizzard. 


 

1911 - Tamarack, CA, reported 451 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the U.S. (David Ludlum)

1948 - Record cold followed in the wake of a Kansas blizzard. Lows of -25 degrees at Oberlin, Healy and Quinter established a state record for the month of March. Lows of -15 at Dodge City, -11 at Concordia, and -3 at Wichita were also March records. (The Weather Channel)

1953: An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. Seventeen people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

1962 - One of the most paralyzing snowstorms in decades produced record March snowfalls in Iowa. Four feet of snow covered the ground at Inwood following the storm. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., and a storm over the Gulf of Mexico spread rain and sleet and snow into the Appalachian Region. Sleet was reported in southern Mississippi. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A blizzard raged across the north central U.S. Chadron NE was buried under 33 inches of snow, up to 25 inches of snow was reported in eastern Wyoming, and totals in the Black Hills of South Dakota ranged up to 69 inches at Lead. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Mullen NE. Snow drifts thirty feet high were reported around Lusk WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-one cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 95 degrees at Lubbock TX equalled their record for March. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Forty-four cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 71 degrees at Dickinson ND and Williston ND, and 84 degrees at Lynchburg VA, Charleston WV and Huntington WV. Augusta GA and Columbia SC tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation with record highs of 88 degrees. A vigorous cold front produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains of Utah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - Phoenix's record run for dry days finally ends at 143 days. The last measured rain fell on October 18, 2005. Not only did the rain break the dry spell, the 1.40 inches that fell was a record amount for the date.

We're also close to the 30 year anniversary of the March 1993 triple phaser aren't we?

 

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

We're also close to the 30 year anniversary of the March 1993 triple phaser aren't we?

 

I just watched a video on YouTube about that yesterday. Had Sam Champion and Al Roker clips - The Good Ol' Days

[golfer07840]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

I just watched a video on YouTube about that yesterday. Had Sam Champion and Al Roker clips - The Good Ol' Days

Have the link handy? Love old TV clips like that. In remember that storm well  

 

Oddly enough I want to say there was a major warm up right after and the snow didn't stick around long  

[wishcast_hater]

2 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

Have the link handy? Love old TV clips like that. In remember that storm well  

 

Oddly enough I want to say there was a major warm up right after and the snow didn't stick around long  

SuperStorm 93

Narration sucks and most of it is live reporting so I just fast forwarded through most of it.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the most recent storm, a generally cooler regime is now developing. The colder regime no longer appears as cold relative to normal as it had previously on the guidance. Moreover, there could be some interruptions with periods of milder weather. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but will likely persist through the closing week of March.

A large storm could affect the region during the March 13-15 timeframe. The coastal plain again risks seeing more rain than snow. Light snowfall amounts remain possible. Cities including Albany, Binghamton, and Concord, along with higher elevations could be in line for a substantial snowfall. Prospects for a significant snowfall have increased for Boston. Parts of central New York State, upstate New York, and central New England have a chance to see 1-2 foot amounts.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -4.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.594 today.

On March 9 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.429 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 4.306 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (0.5° below normal).

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    43degs.(38/48) or Normal.

Month to date is     42.0[+2.0].        Should be    42.4[+1.1] by the 20th.

Reached 46 here yesterday at 1am, 44 in the daytime.

Today:    46-48, wind n. to e., clouding up late, 39 tomorrow AM.

35*(70%RH) here at 7am.      38* at 10am.    47* at Noon.    Reached  48* at 2pm.       44* at 5pm.       42* at 10pm.     

[forkyfork]

On 3/9/2023 at 12:33 PM, forkyfork said:

our benchmark is in this zone

close enough

[SACRUS]

REcords:

 

Highs:

EWR: 73 (2012)
NYC: 71 (2012)
LGA: 69 (2021)
 

 

Lows:

EWR: 13 (1934)
NYC: 8 (1888)
LGA: 15 (1984)

 

Historical:

 

1888 - A blizzard paralyzed southeastern New York State and western New England. The storm produced 58 inches of snow at Saratoga NY, and 50 inches at Middletown CT. The blizzard was followed by record cold temperatures, and the cold and snow claimed 400 lives. New York City received 20.9 inches of snow, Albany NY reported 46.7 inches. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1928: The St. Frances dam near Santa Paula, California, burst before midnight, sending 138,000 acres of water rushing down the San Francisquito Canyon, killing 450 people. The dam was designed and built between 1924 and 1926 by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, then named the Bureau of Water Works and Supply.

1954 - A blizzard raged from eastern Wyoming into the Black Hills of western South Dakota, while a severe ice storm was in progress from northeastern Nebraska to central Iowa. The ice storm isolated 153 towns in Iowa. Dust from the Great Plains caused brown snow, and hail and muddy rain over parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. (11th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1967 - A tremendous four day storm raged across California. Winds of 90 mph closed mountain passes, heavy rains flooded the lowlands, and in sixty hours Squaw Valley CA was buried under 96 inches (eight feet) of snow. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with gale force winds along the Middle Atlantic Coast. A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced rain and gale force winds. Crescent City CA received 2.27 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Winds gusting to 70 mph produced snow drifts six feet high in Minnesota, and sent twelve foot waves on Lake Superior over the breakwalls of the ship canal at Duluth MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An early season heat wave continued in the southwestern and central U.S. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Wichita Falls TX, which six days earlier reported a record low of 8 above, reported a record high of 95 degrees. Childress TX was the first spot in the country in 1989 to hit the century mark. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast, with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Seventy-six cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore MD was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 95 degrees, which smashed their previous record for the date by nineteen degrees. Other record highs included 89 degrees at Washington D.C. and 90 degrees at Raleigh NC. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: An incredible blizzard known as "The Superstorm" struck the eastern United States on this date through the 15th. The storm was described as the most costly non-tropical storm ever to hit the U.S., doing an estimated $6 billion in damage. The storm was as strong as a hurricane regarding winds and low pressure. The pressure dropped to an incredible 28.35 inches of mercury or 960 millibars when then the storm was located over the Chesapeake Bay. Boston, Massachusetts, recorded a wind gust to 81 mph, the most substantial wind they had recorded since Hurricane Edna in 1954. Also, as the storm was intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, a wind gust to 99 mph was recorded by an offshore oil rig. It dumped incredible amounts of snow from Alabama to New England. The snow amounts were significant everywhere, but for places like Birmingham, Alabama, the 17 inches recorded brought the city to a standstill for three days. Mount Leconte, North Carolina, recorded 60 inches of snow. Practically every weather station in West Virginia established a new 24-hour snowfall record during the event. Syracuse, New York was buried under 43 inches of snow. The storm killed 220 people, and another 48 lost at sea. The storm also brought a 12-foot storm surge and 15 tornadoes to Florida, where 51 people were killed. Air travel was brought to a halt as every major airport from Atlanta north was closed during the height of the storm. During the late evening into the early morning hours of the 13th, a vicious squall line swept through Florida and spawned 11 tornadoes resulting in five fatalities. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 110 mph at Alligator Point and 109 mph at Dry Tortugas. Exceptionally high tides occurred along the western Florida coast. A 13-foot storm surge occurred in Taylor County, Florida, resulting in 10 deaths with 57 residences destroyed. A 5 to 8-foot storm surge moved ashore in Dixie County. Over 500 homes were destroyed, with major damage to another 700 structures.
 

2006 - High school senior Matt Suter survives being blown 1,307 feet by a tornado. (The exact distance is determined by NWS GPS.) The twister rips open his grandmother's mobile home and tosses Suter into the night, launching him over a barbed wire fence and eventually depositing him on the soft grass in an open field. He suffers only a head wound from being hit by a lamp. The Weather Doctor's Diary

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

REcords:

 

Highs:

EWR: 73 (2012)
NYC: 71 (2012)
LGA: 69 (2021)
 

 

Lows:

EWR: 13 (1934)
NYC: 8 (1888)
LGA: 15 (1984)

 

Historical:

 

1888 - A blizzard paralyzed southeastern New York State and western New England. The storm produced 58 inches of snow at Saratoga NY, and 50 inches at Middletown CT. The blizzard was followed by record cold temperatures, and the cold and snow claimed 400 lives. New York City received 20.9 inches of snow, Albany NY reported 46.7 inches. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1928: The St. Frances dam near Santa Paula, California, burst before midnight, sending 138,000 acres of water rushing down the San Francisquito Canyon, killing 450 people. The dam was designed and built between 1924 and 1926 by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, then named the Bureau of Water Works and Supply.

1954 - A blizzard raged from eastern Wyoming into the Black Hills of western South Dakota, while a severe ice storm was in progress from northeastern Nebraska to central Iowa. The ice storm isolated 153 towns in Iowa. Dust from the Great Plains caused brown snow, and hail and muddy rain over parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. (11th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1967 - A tremendous four day storm raged across California. Winds of 90 mph closed mountain passes, heavy rains flooded the lowlands, and in sixty hours Squaw Valley CA was buried under 96 inches (eight feet) of snow. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with gale force winds along the Middle Atlantic Coast. A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced rain and gale force winds. Crescent City CA received 2.27 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Winds gusting to 70 mph produced snow drifts six feet high in Minnesota, and sent twelve foot waves on Lake Superior over the breakwalls of the ship canal at Duluth MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An early season heat wave continued in the southwestern and central U.S. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Wichita Falls TX, which six days earlier reported a record low of 8 above, reported a record high of 95 degrees. Childress TX was the first spot in the country in 1989 to hit the century mark. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast, with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Seventy-six cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore MD was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 95 degrees, which smashed their previous record for the date by nineteen degrees. Other record highs included 89 degrees at Washington D.C. and 90 degrees at Raleigh NC. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: An incredible blizzard known as "The Superstorm" struck the eastern United States on this date through the 15th. The storm was described as the most costly non-tropical storm ever to hit the U.S., doing an estimated $6 billion in damage. The storm was as strong as a hurricane regarding winds and low pressure. The pressure dropped to an incredible 28.35 inches of mercury or 960 millibars when then the storm was located over the Chesapeake Bay. Boston, Massachusetts, recorded a wind gust to 81 mph, the most substantial wind they had recorded since Hurricane Edna in 1954. Also, as the storm was intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, a wind gust to 99 mph was recorded by an offshore oil rig. It dumped incredible amounts of snow from Alabama to New England. The snow amounts were significant everywhere, but for places like Birmingham, Alabama, the 17 inches recorded brought the city to a standstill for three days. Mount Leconte, North Carolina, recorded 60 inches of snow. Practically every weather station in West Virginia established a new 24-hour snowfall record during the event. Syracuse, New York was buried under 43 inches of snow. The storm killed 220 people, and another 48 lost at sea. The storm also brought a 12-foot storm surge and 15 tornadoes to Florida, where 51 people were killed. Air travel was brought to a halt as every major airport from Atlanta north was closed during the height of the storm. During the late evening into the early morning hours of the 13th, a vicious squall line swept through Florida and spawned 11 tornadoes resulting in five fatalities. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 110 mph at Alligator Point and 109 mph at Dry Tortugas. Exceptionally high tides occurred along the western Florida coast. A 13-foot storm surge occurred in Taylor County, Florida, resulting in 10 deaths with 57 residences destroyed. A 5 to 8-foot storm surge moved ashore in Dixie County. Over 500 homes were destroyed, with major damage to another 700 structures.
 

2006 - High school senior Matt Suter survives being blown 1,307 feet by a tornado. (The exact distance is determined by NWS GPS.) The twister rips open his grandmother's mobile home and tosses Suter into the night, launching him over a barbed wire fence and eventually depositing him on the soft grass in an open field. He suffers only a head wound from being hit by a lamp. The Weather Doctor's Diary

 

Amazing to have so many historic events occur on the same day!  Wasn't today also the beginning of the heat in 2012?

1) 1888 blizzard

2) historic 1990 heatwave (I didn't even realize Baltimore hit 95!)

2) 1993 blizzard

 

There is actually a secondary noreaster peak in mid March (similar to the secondary TC peak in the middle of October), probably because this is when warm and cold airmasses clash?

 

1888 - A blizzard paralyzed southeastern New York State and western New England. The storm produced 58 inches of snow at Saratoga NY, and 50 inches at Middletown CT. The blizzard was followed by record cold temperatures, and the cold and snow claimed 400 lives. New York City received 20.9 inches of snow, Albany NY reported 46.7 inches. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast, with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Seventy-six cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore MD was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 95 degrees, which smashed their previous record for the date by nineteen degrees. Other record highs included 89 degrees at Washington D.C. and 90 degrees at Raleigh NC. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: An incredible blizzard known as "The Superstorm" struck the eastern United States on this date through the 15th. The storm was described as the most costly non-tropical storm ever to hit the U.S., doing an estimated $6 billion in damage. The storm was as strong as a hurricane regarding winds and low pressure. The pressure dropped to an incredible 28.35 inches of mercury or 960 millibars when then the storm was located over the Chesapeake Bay. Boston, Massachusetts, recorded a wind gust to 81 mph, the most substantial wind they had recorded since Hurricane Edna in 1954. Also, as the storm was intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, a wind gust to 99 mph was recorded by an offshore oil rig. It dumped incredible amounts of snow from Alabama to New England. The snow amounts were significant everywhere, but for places like Birmingham, Alabama, the 17 inches recorded brought the city to a standstill for three days. Mount Leconte, North Carolina, recorded 60 inches of snow. Practically every weather station in West Virginia established a new 24-hour snowfall record during the event. Syracuse, New York was buried under 43 inches of snow. The storm killed 220 people, and another 48 lost at sea. The storm also brought a 12-foot storm surge and 15 tornadoes to Florida, where 51 people were killed. Air travel was brought to a halt as every major airport from Atlanta north was closed during the height of the storm. During the late evening into the early morning hours of the 13th, a vicious squall line swept through Florida and spawned 11 tornadoes resulting in five fatalities. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 110 mph at Alligator Point and 109 mph at Dry Tortugas. Exceptionally high tides occurred along the western Florida coast. A 13-foot storm surge occurred in Taylor County, Florida, resulting in 10 deaths with 57 residences destroyed. A 5 to 8-foot storm surge moved ashore in Dixie County. Over 500 homes were destroyed, with major damage to another 700 structures.

[jayyy]

12z gfs says hello Miller A around the 23rd. Snows from Northern GA to southern New England with coastal locations favored. It will of course change being 10 days out but the potential is there for a legit major east coast storm

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, jayyy said:

12z gfs says hello Miller A around the 23rd. Snows from Northern GA to southern New England with coastal locations favored. It will of course change being 10 days out but the potential is there for a legit major east coast storm

Didn't one or more of these models say we had a Miller A coming up from the Gulf around the 17th?  I distinctly remember maps being posted about it.

[SRRTA22]

let's just get on with the 60s and 70s already

[donsutherland1]

A generally cooler regime is now in place. The colder regime no longer appears as cold relative to normal as it had previously on the guidance. Moreover, there could be some interruptions with periods of milder weather. The colder regime will likely persist through the closing week of March.

A large storm will impact the region during the March 13-15 timeframe. Philadelphia will likely see 0.5" or less. New York City and Newark will likely pick up 1"-2". There remains some possibility that New York City might pick up little or no measurable snowfall. The far northern and western suburbs will likely see 4"-8" of snow. Parts of central New York State, upstate New York, and central New England have a chance to see 1-2 foot amounts.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -11.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.042 today.

On March 10 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.327 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 4.427 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (0.5° below normal).

 

[Winterweatherlover]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't one or more of these models say we had a Miller A coming up from the Gulf around the 17th?  I distinctly remember maps being posted about it.

I was thinking this. I hasn’t paid attention to long range but of course now pushed back to the 23rd. Maybe it’ll be pushed back to April next? 

[BxEngine]

Bump for those who dont think the storm is worth discussing anymore but still seem to post in the storm thread….here’s the general march weather thread for you.

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

let's just get on with the 60s and 70s already

So happy this horrible winter is just about over. 

[SRRTA22]

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So happy this horrible winter is just about over. 

It was bound to happen. We went a whole decade of blockbusters basically. We'll be back. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Swing and a miss twice in a week, March sure kept with the theme since December. 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A generally cooler regime is now in place. The colder regime no longer appears as cold relative to normal as it had previously on the guidance. Moreover, there could be some interruptions with periods of milder weather. The colder regime will likely persist through the closing week of March.

A large storm will impact the region during the March 13-15 timeframe. Philadelphia will likely see 0.5" or less. New York City and Newark will likely pick up 1"-2". There remains some possibility that New York City might pick up little or no measurable snowfall. The far northern and western suburbs will likely see 4"-8" of snow. Parts of central New York State, upstate New York, and central New England have a chance to see 1-2 foot amounts.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -11.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.042 today.

On March 10 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.327 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 4.427 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (0.5° below normal).

 

So still a fairly good chance that NYC maintains the futility record, Don?  I'd say 50/50 at this point.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Rain will fall along the coastal plain. In the far northern and western suburbs, rain changing to wet snow will fall. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 46°

Philadelphia: 46°

Tomorrow will be stormy with windswept heavy rain on the coast possibly mixing with and ending as some snow with only minor accumulations at best. The far northern and western suburbs could see 4”-8” of snow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 49.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.6

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.6°; 15-Year: 52.1°

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Swing and a miss twice in a week, March sure kept with the theme since December. 

Even with a good pattern this month 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      42degs.(37/48) or -1.

Month to date is     41.9[+1.8].         Should be     41.9[+0.7] by the 21st.

Reached 48 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:     42-44, wind e. to n., rain all day, 37 tomorrow AM.

42*(85%RH) here at 7am, rain.         44* at 9am.      46* at 10am.      Reached 47* at Noon.        43* at 9pm.

[MJO812]

I'm tracking the next storm 

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm tracking the next storm 

Me too....in December 2023.

[North and West]

Me too....in December 2023.

.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm tracking the next storm 

I’m not unless it shows something real inside 4 days. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I’m not unless it shows something real inside 4 days. 

Good idea 

[TheManWithNoFace]

Anyone got a read on temps for the last week of March/1st week of April?