Rjay Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 40 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Disappointing model runs tonight with respect to 2nd wave. Disagree. Gfs actually had the storm this run. The others are just too far east for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Disagree. Gfs actually had the storm this run. The others are just too far east for now. Also, the Euro was a bomb, just not cold enough, so the major snowfalls were well NW (Poconos, Sussex, mid-Hudson Valley and N of there) with lots of rain everywhere SE of there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Also, the Euro was a bomb, just not cold enough, so the major snowfalls were well NW (Poconos, Sussex, mid-Hudson Valley and N of there) with lots of rain everywhere SE of there. That cold enough aspect is a huge problem though. Areas closer to the coast will need to rely on rates in mid march with 0c 850 temps — this will at best be unfolding in a marginal airmass. It’s certainly possible but it’s definitely tougher now than December - February. If we had that 1050+ high that was being depicted on models last week, we’d be talking about a potential HECS and would have less to worry about in the temp department. It’s going to take good timing and a well timed / placed low bomb out for this to produce the type of snow many of us are starving for. If the desired outcome is areawide pink on the clown maps, it’s going to be very difficult to achieve. Think folks need to be realistic about this one, especially SE of 287/87 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3/28/22 my temps were 33/23 and I had a trace of snow that day. On the 13th I was 35/22. It was a warmer month overall last year, but even given that I had much colder individual days than anything I'm seeing projected right now. I mentioned this before as I'm somewhat confused by it; with the set up we have what is limiting us from getting some colder air into the picture? It's slightly BN but you'd think there'd be some much colder days mixed in. I think Tip or one of the meteorologists on NE forums mentioned that the true arctic air pipeline was blocked off from us, which is typical and frustrating. Lack of cold air is the least tolerable way to fail, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 EPS ensembles for NYC for Friday-Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 49° Somewhat cooler than normal to near seasonable readings will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.2°; 15-Year: 47.7° Newark: 30-Year: 48.3°; 15-Year: 49.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(32/43) or about -5. Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 46-48, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 33 tomorrow AM. 31*(59%RH) here at 6am. 34* at 9am. 37* at 10am. 41* at Noon. 44* at 2pm. Reached 49* at 4:30pm. 40* at 9pm. 38* at 10pm. Anyone know which NYC March this was? When March Could Be March Didn't Need No Stinkin' GFS! March 5 2.0" March 7 T March 15 1.8" March 16 0.8" March 17 3.0" March 19 8* March 21 0.8" March 22 9.0" March 23 T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(32/43) or about -5. Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 46-48, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 33 tomorrow AM. 31*(59%RH) here at 6am. Anyone know which NYC March this was? When March Could Be March Didn't Need No Stinkin' GFS! March 5 2.0" March 7 T March 15 1.8" March 16 0.8" March 17 3.0" March 19 8* March 21 0.8" March 22 9.0" March 23 T 1967 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Fairly good agreement now on a 1-3 maybe 2-4 inch event on Sat for the city and points NW. LI is a wildcard as they could get nothing or if the coastal blows up close enough to the coast they could jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Also, isn’t the pattern awfully progressive right now? Isn’t that not typically the case with blocking like this? I suppose this is because waves aren’t digging in the east and being driven north into the block where they’d slow and shunt east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6z GFS ensembles. NYC right at the edge of a moderate snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Fairly good agreement now on a 1-3 maybe 2-4 inch event on Sat for the city and points NW. LI is a wildcard as they could get nothing or if the coastal blows up close enough to the coast they could jackpot. Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive? I'm not getting my hopes up. There's at chance at something significant but everything has to go right for that to happen. Cold looks marginal. You need a powerful coastal system to get snow to the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not getting my hopes up. There's at chance at something significant but everything has to go right for that to happen. Cold looks marginal. You need a powerful coastal system to get snow to the coast. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I'm not getting my hopes up. There's at chance at something significant but everything has to go right for that to happen. Cold looks marginal. You need a powerful coastal system to get snow to the coast. My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not getting my hopes up. There's at chance at something significant but everything has to go right for that to happen. Cold looks marginal. You need a powerful coastal system to get snow to the coast. Yup intensity and track. The problem this year has been a strongly coupled La Nina. RECORD troughing off the west coast and a dominant northern stream (again la Nina) has limited the air mass considerably on the east coast. The sad part, this setup would have absolutely buried us in almost all other setups (any setup other than strong la Nina and El Nino (97/98) conditions. If this setup happened last March CPK would have EASILY breached 10 inches. Timing is everything. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under Deep interior is favored for both waves. At this time I don't see the coastal plain getting much if anything You either need arctic air in March or a deep coastal low to get significant snows. We're banking on the 2nd option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 For the second wave, I would be more worried about sniffing Cirrus than rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under At least it’s mostly coming at night again which helps this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 IF. IF this is the result it WILL snow in almost all of this forum. I will warn that there is a lean west on the individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I must add, closer to the coast CAN still be snow for the CP if the storm is bombing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 77 (1987) NYC: 76 (1987) LGA: 74 (1987( Lows: LGA: 14 (1986) EWR: 13 (1996) NYC: 8 (1883) Historical: 1909: The town of Brinkley, Arkansas, was struck by an estimated F4 tornado, which killed 49 people. The tornado, which was two-thirds of a mile wide, destroyed 860 buildings. Entire families were killed as houses were completely swept away by the storm. The graphic below is from a tweet by the NWS Office in Little Rock, Arkansas. 1989: While Arctic cold gripped the northeastern U.S., unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southwestern states. Albany, New York, reported a record low of 2 degrees below zero. Tucson, Arizona, reported a record high of 90 degrees. 2000: An F1 tornado traveled a short distance across Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the evening hours. The tornado injured 16 people. 2018: A horseshoe cloud was seen over Battle Mountain, Nevada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 77 (1987) NYC: 76 (1987) LGA: 74 (1987( Lows: LGA: 14 (1986) EWR: 13 (1996) NYC: 8 (1883) Historical: 1909: The town of Brinkley, Arkansas, was struck by an estimated F4 tornado, which killed 49 people. The tornado, which was two-thirds of a mile wide, destroyed 860 buildings. Entire families were killed as houses were completely swept away by the storm. The graphic below is from a tweet by the NWS Office in Little Rock, Arkansas. 1989: While Arctic cold gripped the northeastern U.S., unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southwestern states. Albany, New York, reported a record low of 2 degrees below zero. Tucson, Arizona, reported a record high of 90 degrees. 2000: An F1 tornado traveled a short distance across Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the evening hours. The tornado injured 16 people. 2018: A horseshoe cloud was seen over Battle Mountain, Nevada. Talk about temp shock YOY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Fairly good agreement now on a 1-3 maybe 2-4 inch event on Sat for the city and points NW. LI is a wildcard as they could get nothing or if the coastal blows up close enough to the coast they could jackpot. Could be another situation where the south shore gets white rain or just rain and the north shore can be a few degrees colder and accumulate. Airmass is very marginal as others have said and we need it to deepen close by to bring some cold air in. If it’s light stuff it won’t accumulate unless you’re inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: IF. IF this is the result it WILL snow in almost all of this forum. I will warn that there is a lean west on the individuals. The EPS looks great. Hopefully we cash in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive? I'll take it and move on to spring. Given how this winter has gone and the late date, you have to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Taken from the Mid Atlantic forum. and 6z EPS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, Nibor said: Taken from the Mid Atlantic forum. and 6z EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 58 minutes ago, matt8204 said: I'll take it and move on to spring. Given how this winter has gone and the late date, you have to be realistic. We are usually good for some meaningless piddly events in March after a dud winter. Happens every time. Enjoy any mood flakes and get the lawn mowers ready. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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