March 2023

[Rjay]

40 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Disappointing model runs tonight with respect to 2nd wave. 

Disagree.  Gfs actually had the storm this run. The others are just too far east for now.  

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Disagree.  Gfs actually had the storm this run. The others are just too far east for now.  

Also, the Euro was a bomb, just not cold enough, so the major snowfalls were well NW (Poconos, Sussex, mid-Hudson Valley and N of there) with lots of rain everywhere SE of there.  

[jayyy]

Also, the Euro was a bomb, just not cold enough, so the major snowfalls were well NW (Poconos, Sussex, mid-Hudson Valley and N of there) with lots of rain everywhere SE of there.  

That cold enough aspect is a huge problem though. Areas closer to the coast will need to rely on rates in mid march with 0c 850 temps — this will at best be unfolding in a marginal airmass. It’s certainly possible but it’s definitely tougher now than December - February. If we had that 1050+ high that was being depicted on models last week, we’d be talking about a potential HECS and would have less to worry about in the temp department. It’s going to take good timing and a well timed / placed low bomb out for this to produce the type of snow many of us are starving for. If the desired outcome is areawide pink on the clown maps, it’s going to be very difficult to achieve. Think folks need to be realistic about this one, especially SE of 287/87

[Volcanic Winter]

3/28/22 my temps were 33/23 and I had a trace of snow that day. On the 13th I was 35/22. It was a warmer month overall last year, but even given that I had much colder individual days than anything I'm seeing projected right now. I mentioned this before as I'm somewhat confused by it; with the set up we have what is limiting us from getting some colder air into the picture? It's slightly BN but you'd think there'd be some much colder days mixed in. I think Tip or one of the meteorologists on NE forums mentioned that the true arctic air pipeline was blocked off from us, which is typical and frustrating. Lack of cold air is the least tolerable way to fail, IMO.

[North and West]

Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened. 

.

[donsutherland1]

EPS ensembles for NYC for Friday-Saturday.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 49°

Somewhat cooler than normal to near seasonable readings will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.2°; 15-Year: 47.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.3°; 15-Year: 49.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.3°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     38degs.(32/43) or about -5.

Reached 47 here yesterday.

Today:     46-48, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 33 tomorrow AM.

31*(59%RH) here at 6am.      34* at 9am.      37* at 10am.       41* at Noon.       44* at 2pm.        Reached 49* at 4:30pm.      40* at 9pm.     38* at 10pm.

Anyone know which NYC March this was?      When March Could Be March     Didn't Need No Stinkin' GFS!

March    5       2.0"

March    7        T

March   15       1.8"

March   16       0.8"

March    17      3.0"            March 19      8*

March    21       0.8"

March    22       9.0"

March    23        T

 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging     38degs.(32/43) or about -5.

Reached 47 here yesterday.

Today:     46-48, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 33 tomorrow AM.

31*(59%RH) here at 6am.

Anyone know which NYC March this was?      When March Could Be March     Didn't Need No Stinkin' GFS!

March    5       2.0"

March    7        T

March   15       1.8"

March   16       0.8"

March    17      3.0"            March 19      8*

March    21       0.8"

March    22       9.0"

March    23        T

 

1967

[Winterweatherlover]

Fairly good agreement now on a 1-3 maybe 2-4 inch event on Sat for the city and points NW. LI is a wildcard as they could get nothing or if the coastal blows up close enough to the coast they could jackpot. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Also, isn’t the pattern awfully progressive right now? Isn’t that not typically the case with blocking like this? I suppose this is because waves aren’t digging in the east and being driven north into the block where they’d slow and shunt east? 

[mannynyc]

6z GFS ensembles. NYC right at the edge of a moderate snowfall

[snowman19]

Fairly good agreement now on a 1-3 maybe 2-4 inch event on Sat for the city and points NW. LI is a wildcard as they could get nothing or if the coastal blows up close enough to the coast they could jackpot. 

Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive?

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive?

I'm not getting my hopes up. There's at chance at something significant but everything has to go right for that to happen. 

Cold looks marginal. You need a powerful coastal system to get snow to the coast. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not getting my hopes up. There's at chance at something significant but everything has to go right for that to happen. 

Cold looks marginal. You need a powerful coastal system to get snow to the coast. 

Agree

[snowman19]

I'm not getting my hopes up. There's at chance at something significant but everything has to go right for that to happen. 
Cold looks marginal. You need a powerful coastal system to get snow to the coast. 

My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not getting my hopes up. There's at chance at something significant but everything has to go right for that to happen. 

Cold looks marginal. You need a powerful coastal system to get snow to the coast. 

Yup intensity and track.

The problem this year has been a strongly coupled La Nina.

RECORD troughing off the west coast and a dominant northern stream (again la Nina) has limited the air mass considerably on the east coast.

The sad part, this setup would have absolutely buried us in almost all other setups (any setup other than strong la Nina and El Nino (97/98) conditions.

If this setup happened last March CPK would have EASILY breached 10 inches.

Timing is everything.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under

Deep interior is favored for both waves. At this time I don't see the coastal plain getting much if anything 

You either need arctic air in March or a deep coastal low to get significant snows. We're banking on the 2nd option 

[USCG RS]

For the second wave, I would be more worried about sniffing Cirrus than rain

[Winterweatherlover]

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under

At least it’s mostly coming at night again which helps this time of year. 

[EastonSN+]

IF. IF this is the result it WILL snow in almost all of this forum. I will warn that there is a lean west on the individuals. 

[EastonSN+]

I must add, closer to the coast CAN still be snow for the CP if the storm is bombing.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 77 (1987)
NYC: 76 (1987)
LGA: 74 (1987(

 

Lows:

LGA: 14 (1986)
EWR: 13 (1996)
NYC: 8 (1883)

 

Historical:

1909: The town of Brinkley, Arkansas, was struck by an estimated F4 tornado, which killed 49 people. The tornado, which was two-thirds of a mile wide, destroyed 860 buildings. Entire families were killed as houses were completely swept away by the storm. The graphic below is from a tweet by the NWS Office in Little Rock, Arkansas.

 

1989: While Arctic cold gripped the northeastern U.S., unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southwestern states. Albany, New York, reported a record low of 2 degrees below zero. Tucson, Arizona, reported a record high of 90 degrees. 

 

2000: An F1 tornado traveled a short distance across Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the evening hours. The tornado injured 16 people.

 

2018: A horseshoe cloud was seen over Battle Mountain, Nevada.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 77 (1987)
NYC: 76 (1987)
LGA: 74 (1987(

 

Lows:

LGA: 14 (1986)
EWR: 13 (1996)
NYC: 8 (1883)

 

Historical:

1909: The town of Brinkley, Arkansas, was struck by an estimated F4 tornado, which killed 49 people. The tornado, which was two-thirds of a mile wide, destroyed 860 buildings. Entire families were killed as houses were completely swept away by the storm. The graphic below is from a tweet by the NWS Office in Little Rock, Arkansas.

 

1989: While Arctic cold gripped the northeastern U.S., unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southwestern states. Albany, New York, reported a record low of 2 degrees below zero. Tucson, Arizona, reported a record high of 90 degrees. 

 

2000: An F1 tornado traveled a short distance across Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the evening hours. The tornado injured 16 people.

 

2018: A horseshoe cloud was seen over Battle Mountain, Nevada.

Talk about temp shock YOY.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Fairly good agreement now on a 1-3 maybe 2-4 inch event on Sat for the city and points NW. LI is a wildcard as they could get nothing or if the coastal blows up close enough to the coast they could jackpot. 

Could be another situation where the south shore gets white rain or just rain and the north shore can be a few degrees colder and accumulate. Airmass is very marginal as others have said and we need it to deepen close by to bring some cold air in. If it’s light stuff it won’t accumulate unless you’re inland. 

[Nibor]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

IF. IF this is the result it WILL snow in almost all of this forum. I will warn that there is a lean west on the individuals. 

The EPS looks great. Hopefully we cash in. 

[matt8204]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive?

I'll take it and move on to spring.  Given how this winter has gone and the late date, you have to be realistic.

[Nibor]

 

Taken from the Mid Atlantic forum. 
 

and 6z EPS:

[WestBabylonWeather]

15 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

Taken from the Mid Atlantic forum. 
 

and 6z EPS:

[weatherpruf]

58 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

I'll take it and move on to spring.  Given how this winter has gone and the late date, you have to be realistic.

We are usually good for some meaningless piddly events in March after a dud winter. Happens every time. Enjoy any mood flakes and get the lawn mowers ready.