Rjay Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Euro is gonna drop like 2-3 feet On nyc this run with a classic miller B. Splits off energy in pac so weak wave rises east and then strengthens and redevelops under the block .I’ll take “Things that aren’t going to happen” for $500 Alex…. 2 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 ensemble mean = major snowstorm for DC to BOS OP = major snowstorm for central NJ to BOSThe difference? The ensemble mean pops the coastal off the coast of NC/SC, instead of ocean city. Both outcomes crush the nyc metro. The ensemble mean depiction gets the mid Atlantic in on the action too. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 the progression on the EPS is quite similar to that of Feb 2021 with the vigorous S/W getting forced underneath the block. it's not very far off. what a shift here just keep in mind that this is not the end solution at all... but the overall synoptics might not be failing us as we previously thought. gotta trust the pattern to produce 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I’ll take “Things that aren’t going to happen” for $500 Alex…. We never had a huge storm before? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Wow 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Wow Meanwhile the GFS is worlds away, but does show some baby steps towards the EURO. Since the potential storm is a week away, we will continue to see some wild swings with solutions from the Ops. I’ll focus more with the ensembles for now and look for trends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’ll take “Things that aren’t going to happen” for $500 Alex…. The Euro would be a historic storm for this region and one of the biggest March storms on record So yeah I'd say extremely unlikely though there is EPS support. Would need that to hold and for other models to come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The Euro would be a historic storm for this region and one of the biggest March storms on record So yeah I'd say extremely unlikely though there is EPS support. Would need that to hold and for other models to come on board.There was also good op Euro and EPS support for a major snowstorm here this weekend too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(35/49) or near Normal. Reached 47 here yesterday at 2pm. Today: 49-52, wind w. to n.-breezy, m. sunny, 38 tomorrow AM. With 0" on the GFS and CMC and its own EPS just 50% on at least an inch---the EURO gives this: It is Mocking You! 39*(69%RH) here at 6am{was 38 at 3am} 41* at 7am. 44* at 10am. 50* at Noon. 52* at 2pm. Reached 53* at 3pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 EPS Snowfall amounts for New York City and last four runs of the operational ECMWF for New York City and Philadelphia: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The whole forecast comes down to getting the ridge axis in the Rockies. The EPS and GEPS have it with the BM track. But the GEFS has more of a Western Trough and storm track too far west. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° The mild weather will continue tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.4°; 15-Year: 46.8° Newark: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 48.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.2° 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Eps looks less amped than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 75 (1976) LGA: 72 (1976) NYC: 72 (1880) Lows: EWR: 9 (1948) LGA:9 (1948) NYC: 3 (1872) Historical: 1894: The low temperature of 36 degrees in San Diego, California, on this day was their lowest on record for March. 1959: In Iowa, the record-breaking snowstorm on March 4-6 began with light snow in western Iowa on the morning of the 4th, then spread across the state and intensified with heavy snow falling from the night of the 4th through the 5th and into the early morning on the 6th in eastern Iowa. The snowfall and its subsequent effects were less severe in western Iowa and grew progressively worse, moving eastward. In central Iowa, snowfall amounts were generally 6 to 10 inches. In contrast, in eastern Iowa, a swath of about 12 to 20 inches of snow fell roughly from Appanoose County through Tama County and northeast to Allamakee County. Reported storm total snowfall amounts included 12.9 inches at Waterloo, 14.5 inches at Decorah, 16.0 inches at Oelwein, 17.0 inches at Oskaloosa, 17.6 inches at Dubuque, 19.8 inches at Marshalltown, where 17.8 inches fell in just 24 hours, and 22.0 inches at Fayette where 21.0 inches fell in 24 hours. Winds strengthened steadily during the storm, with speeds reaching 30 to 50 mph at times and causing extensive blowing and drifting of snow. Drifts 6 to 10 feet deep were common, and in northeastern Iowa, a few locations reported drifts 15 to 20 feet deep. 1960 - Eastern Massachusetts greatest March snowstorm of record began to abate. The storm produced record 24 hour snowfall totals of 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph. (3rd-5th) (The Weather Channel) 1962 - A tremendous storm raged along the Atlantic coast. The great Atlantic storm caused more than 200 million dollars property damage from Florida to New England. Winds along the Middle Atlantic Coast reached 70 mph raising forty foot waves, and as much as 33 inches of snow blanketed the mountains of Virginia. The Virginia shoreline was rearranged by historic tidal flooding caused by the combination of the long stretch of strong onshore winds and the Spring Tides. (David Ludlum) 1972: Palm Springs, California, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark. 1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain and high winds in California. Up to six inches of rain soaked the San Francisco Bay area in 24 hours, and winds gusted to 100 mph at the Wheeler Ridge Pumping Plant near the Tehachapi Mountains. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - While snow blanketed eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, eight cities in North Dakota reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 61 degrees at Bismarck ND was 27 degrees warmer than that at Chanute KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. A strong (F-2) tornado killed one person and injured six others in Heard County GA. A strong (F-3) tornado injured 23 persons and caused more than five million dollars damage around Grantville GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms over eastern Colorado, developing ahead of a major storm system, produced up to three inches of small hail around Colorado Springs in the late morning and early afternoon. Strong thunderstorms swept through southeastern sections of the Denver area during the evening hours. These strong thunderstorms also produced up to three inches of small hail, along with wind gusts to 50 mph, and as much as 2.4 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Daylight at 11H27M roughly equivalent to Oct 8th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Daylight at 11H27M roughly equivalent to Oct 8th. Agreed, I’ve have the same, 10/8. I always chuckle at the folks that are off by weeks if not further on the sun angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 25 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Agreed, I’ve have the same, 10/8. I always chuckle at the folks that are off by weeks if not further on the sun angles. Yes but what people always forget is next week we get the extra hour of daylight, I believe it was Julian who made this point last week, and to make it worse it happens in the afternoon when the sun is highest in the sky. Forget about any accumulating snow after that, it’s basically impossible, the sun angle people always win in the end. I’ve always been curious how we manipulate the Earths axis to make that happen. Will have to research Kyrie Irving’s flat Earth thesis to see his thoughts. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 NAM getting a little closer. Can CPK eak out a few tenths of an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Yes but what people always forget is next week we get the extra hour of daylight, I believe it was Julian who made this point last week, and to make it worse it happens in the afternoon when the sun is highest in the sky. Forget about any accumulating snow after that, it’s basically impossible, the sun angle people always win in the end. I’ve always been curious how we manipulate the Earths axis to make that happen. Will have to research Kyrie Irving’s flat Earth thesis to see his thoughts. We’ve been joking about that for years. I worked with a woman many years who actually thought the “extra sunlight” is why we have spring. I thought for sure she was messing with me but sadly she wasn’t but I digress. 1” at the stake this morning, probably down to patchy snow cover again by days end, after a low of only 33 up to 41 now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Sneaky clipper with a southern lean. Euro actually misses us to the south with it. Good overnight timing too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Sneaky clipper with a southern lean. Euro actually misses us to the south with it. Good overnight timing too We haven’t had a clipper in a while. The question with clippers is will the moisture make it to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Eps looks less amped than 0z That’s ok. Would rather it be less amped til his far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 We haven’t had a clipper in a while. The question with clippers is will the moisture make it to the coast? The RGEM has nothing at all. Zip zero. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: We never had a huge storm before? Not very often in March; it was only 2017 when we had a huge bust...I'm not sold on March events, with good reason. Still, I would love to see even a smaller event at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 53 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NAM getting a little closer. Can CPK eak out a few tenths of an inch? Could be a nice surprise for a narrow swath. Other models have it SW of the city, and drying out from downslope east of the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM has nothing at all. Zip zero. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Congrats State College! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM has nothing at all. Zip zero. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Clippers are rarely anything to fuss over here; sometimes in a colder winter they can give us some nice mood flakes on top of a snow pack, but often they fail to do much, as you no doubt realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 not all events are the same. the GFS is clearly the outlier and will be treated as such 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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