EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: No. NYC is now at 2.2”. The record is 2.8” during 1972-73. If the record is broken, it must be the tightest record spread in history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: No. NYC is now at 2.2”. The record is 2.8” during 1972-73. Don what's JFK's record and is it from 1972-73 and is that the lowest record from the 5 boroughs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Weak and flat is what you want to see at hour 168, not amped. However the Ukie is a terrible model lately. It's a terrible model all the time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If the record is broken, it must be the tightest record spread in history. Be careful with Miller B's like I said in the other post, they are often a New England special. Simply too far to the southwest here to do well unless it's a really big one that strengthens early and quickly and even then we're usually on the fringe of the best part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's a terrible model all the time. Not at all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don what's JFK's record and is it from 1972-73 and is that the lowest record from the 5 boroughs? 1.6”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's a terrible model all the time. Ranked better than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Ranked better than the gfs That's a low bar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 1.6”. Don, so JFK already passed their record from 1972-73?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12z Euro is rain for us next weekend. The 12z models didn't produce for us, but you can see the potential and a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro is rain for us next weekend. The 12z models didn't produce for us, but you can see the potential and a long way to go. Similar to CMC the secondary develops too late, not a terrible look but as others have stated Miller B's are usually tough for us. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030412&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, so JFK already passed their record from 1972-73?! Yes. This year’s figure is 1.7”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 55 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Similar to CMC the secondary develops too late, not a terrible look but as others have stated Miller B's are usually tough for us. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030412&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full That's not really a miller B unless the definition completely changed. Miller Bs usually has secondary development off the NC/VA coast with a primarily no further north than southern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12Z EPS snowfall members about the same as 24 hours ago with about 8 members of 51 (16%) offering up noteworthy (10"+) snow at KMMU. With the exception of 7 members all offer significant QPF of 1"+. Many members aoa 2". Confidence still rather high for impactful cyclone moving through the MA and parts of the NE. Posted Control and EPS M 500 mb departures for next Sunday morning. FOR REFERENCE ONLY the Control has sunk notably south and east with anomalies from 24 hours ago. Mean is weaker, faster and more ENE (Central KY to Northern VA)from 24 hours ago. Final verdict is DAYS away on how this evolves. Confidence moderate and growing that impactful storm affects this forum. PTYPE is highly uncertain. Block will do its job and force 2ndary development. That development and track will determine the final outcome. Potential looks to be centered next Sunday into Monday give or take. Per EPS one or two more threats COULD follow this system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I don't hate this look a week out ...obviously further south is preferred. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: I don't hate this look a week out ...obviously further south is preferred. Me either and yes somewhat south would be preferred. Some of those members deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 We looked better days ago. 60% chance of at least 1" and we are talking about snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 In the wake of the storm that brought heavy rain and coastal flooding to the region overnight into today, milder weather will follow tomorrow and continue into early next week. Afterward, it will turn more seasonable for a time. A colder regime will develop during the second week of the March. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City. For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +0.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.186 today. On March 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.836 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.389 (RMM). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 At 11:59 P.M. tonight, Central Park will set the record for most consecutive calendar days with less than 1.0" of snow (383 days). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, tmagan said: At 11:59 P.M. tonight, Central Park will set the record for most consecutive calendar days with less than 1.0" of snow (383 days). The prior storm split the 2” or so almost 50/50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Northof78 said: The prior storm split the 2” or so almost 50/50? 0.9" each day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, tmagan said: 0.9" each day. That is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, tmagan said: At 11:59 P.M. tonight, Central Park will set the record for most consecutive calendar days with less than 1.0" of snow (383 days). Since they received 1.8 inches from the same storm but just 0.9 inches before and after midnight this will make this another in a line of very questionable records. But I’m sure TWC will play it up to the max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 42 minutes ago, tmagan said: 0.9" each day. Sort of deceptive then but that is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 55 minutes ago, tmagan said: 0.9" each day. I remember a useful book 'How to lie with statistics', by Darrell Huff. I'm glad it is on the NY Central Park mandatory reading list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Still hard to believe that CPK received only 0.9 after midnight while parts of the Bronx got 3+ from that second batch. I'm still skeptical of the numbers being that low at CPK but I guess it's possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Still hard to believe that CPK received only 0.9 after midnight while parts of the Bronx got 3+ from that second batch. I'm still skeptical of the numbers being that low at CPK but I guess it's possible. There was sleet mixing in for a good chunk of the city around midnight and after that didn’t get into the Bronx. Temps in midtown may have been a degree or two warmer than surrounding areas as well. The sleet line might’ve gotten into Central Park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Still hard to believe that CPK received only 0.9 after midnight while parts of the Bronx got 3+ from that second batch. I'm still skeptical of the numbers being that low at CPK but I guess it's possible. But also highly unlikely. They recorded .26 inches of liquid from midnight to 6 Am and the temperature was 32-33 with snow the entire time, and somehow that translated to 0.9 inches of snow? I’m sure it was closer to 1.5 to 2.0 inches but it’s par for the course in the very long history of under measuring by the incompetents at the Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Euro is gonna drop like 2-3 feet On nyc this run with a classic miller B. Splits off energy in pac so weak wave rises east and then strengthens and redevelops under the block . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Euro with a HECS for the entire subforum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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