EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z gefs is way flatter and east of the op for the big storm Yeah the GEFS is night and day comparatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah the GEFS is night and day comparatively. What about the Euro ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: What about the Euro ensemble? Pretty much over us, but not in Wisconsin! Good news is both models look great following the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GEPS is a miller B. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEPS is a miller B. Honestly that's what I'm thinking this will end up but whether the secondary ends up west of NYC or over the Atlantic I don't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Current conditions here..39/28f..oddly it feels wintry and pretty chilly out..i think the chance is there for a brief period of frozen precip even here in the northern parts of the city. The cold air is holding tough though!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Current conditions here..39/28f..oddly it feels wintry and pretty chilly out..i think the chance is there for a brief period of frozen precip even here in the northern parts of the city. The cold air is holding tough though!!. Sure I could see pellets down to the northern parts of the Bronx tonight. Wouldn't expect any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Sure I could see pellets down to the northern parts of the Bronx tonight. Wouldn't expect any accumulation. Yeah if the precip comes in heavy then id expect that to happen. Temps keep dropping slowly also..38-39 degrees with a dp of 28 is not too bad atp. I did mention yesterday about the blocking being stronger then modeled and it might be ringing true for our northern neighbors tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Snowing here just melting on contact except for what remains of my snowpack. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: I'm interested to see where the 0z runs end up, the canadian model has been great this winter, if that holds and the euro shifts that will give me some hope. if not we get em' next year Canadian hasn’t been quite as good recently, it was the last to cave to GFS on todays hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 38 and snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Heavy sleet now. Which I guess is good to coat the warm roads. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Light rain with a few ice pellets just began here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Some sleet is falling in Larchmont, NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Down to 33, moderate snow, sticking on colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Sleet/rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Well the sleet falling aint no joke..its a pingerfest rn.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 had some moderate sleet a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Yeah if the precip comes in heavy then id expect that to happen. Temps keep dropping slowly also..38-39 degrees with a dp of 28 is not too bad atp. I did mention yesterday about the blocking being stronger then modeled and it might be ringing true for our northern neighbors tonight.It was sleeting in Columbia Maryland (20 miles WSW of Baltimore) at 42 degrees today and snowed in northern Maryland with some minor accumulation in the upper 30s. Certainly possible for the BX and Rockland / westchester county area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 35 minutes ago, jayyy said: It was sleeting in Columbia Maryland (20 miles WSW of Baltimore) at 42 degrees today and snowed in northern Maryland with some minor accumulation in the upper 30s. Certainly possible for the BX and Rockland / westchester county area. It came in too disjointed here. If it was a wall maybe woulda have been more pingling but has basically just been light rain mixed with some sleet briefly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 At 11:05 pm.. Moderate mixed princip falling. All surfaces icy. 32.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Cmc looks more Iike my thinking for next weekend than the gfs. Still may not cut it as miller B’s usually are not great for SW of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. Why? The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. Why? The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up. I don't know why you'd say that so certainly. There's plenty of cold air still and as we know, the maps more than seven days out are rarely correct. While the later it gets the chances of significant wintry weather decrease there have been major winter storms into April and as long as there's cold air around, there'a a chance. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 From PSU on the M/A forum: 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE this is what I mean. Look at the location of the pacific trough/ridge alignment. This makes sense. Aleutian ridge. Trough should be in the west with a SER but look what happens when the pac flips the the exact opposite pattern as the mjo gets into phase 8. Aleutian trough and… The conus trough ridge alignment remains unaltered. but wait check this out… the pac trough is even slightly east of ideal there…the ridge east if it is begging squeezes to death because the trough still refuses to exit the west. We need to stop blaming the pac. Yes 75% of the time it’s been in a bad case state. But that’s not unheard of. The reason we’re getting such atrocious results is even when the pac is altered it’s made no difference, the wavelengths just adjust however they need to accommodate the SER. It’s almost as if the TNH is more dominant here not the central pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I don't know why you'd say that so certainly. There's plenty of cold air still and as we know, the maps more than seven days out are rarely correct. While the later it gets the chances of significant wintry weather decrease there have been major winter storms into April and as long as there's cold air around, there'a a chance. WX/PT It's a fool's errand trying to hang onto something after mid March and nobody wants cold/snow by then. I would be a lot happier if the month just torched and it was definitively over. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 33 and a major sleetfest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. Why? The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up. The wc trough and the block links with the se ridge bc it's too far south. Those are the issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 And the Euro is back to a coastal, . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 yup, the ECMWF had a stronger Pacific jet that led to the S/W getting booted out under the block faster… the EPS is following with that idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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