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March 2023

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 3/2/2023 at 8:22 PM, CIK62 said:

Waiting for 3" with only a 50% chance we will get even the first inch.       Needs to shift south by too much to expect.     GEFS is the same.

1679054400-QKKBP1VaEz8.png

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The Fri-Sat storm is done for 80-90% of us. The mid month hopefully pattern improvement is too far away to make any guesses about storms. 

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snowman19
snowman19

I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option

BxEngine
BxEngine

Thats friday night snowfall on the gfs. Not daytime. No one in the subforum is anywhere near the upper 30s during the overnight on the gfs. 

jm1220
jm1220

The Saturday event is worth watching for most of us IMO. It’s a pretty impressive upper level low that’s taking a half decent track for once and isn’t in danger of cutting. The confluence might crush

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golfer67

golfer67

Posted
Posted
  On 3/2/2023 at 9:25 PM, HeadInTheClouds said:

50 today. NWS forecast for 2-4 tomorrow night then mixing and this is reasonable. Weather channel app has me 8-12 tomorrow night up from 5-8, lol. GFS does have me getting 11 but we know that will not verify. 

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LMFAO I had to go to weather.com myself to see this...they must just create a text output of the GFS verbatim or something. And you know plenty of people use solely use weather.com and are thinking they are getting a foot of snow tomorrow night

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
Posted
  On 3/2/2023 at 9:35 PM, sn0w said:

LMFAO I had to go to weather.com myself to see this...they must just create a text output of the GFS verbatim or something. And you know plenty of people use solely use weather.com and are thinking they are getting a foot of snow tomorrow night

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Yes, I think they do. They just changed it back to 5-8 but still ridiculous. NWS Albany just went 1-2 from 2-4. 

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
  On 3/2/2023 at 8:33 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

I personally don't care what the snowfall outputs are when the longwave pattern is this favorable. something big usually pops there, and it often favors BOS to DCA

compare this to the pattern one day before all of NYC's 18"+ storms. the pattern shown here and the composite are very similar. that's why it's exciting

1782618515_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8471200(1).thumb.png.d2ae9109f2363eb413487bf8e8bad4ab.png

Capture.PNG.5a09b149a31a7a287df3b961b711f9db.PNG

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I'm interested in how this evolves but a long way from excited.

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Winterweatherlover

Winterweatherlover

Posted
Posted
  On 3/2/2023 at 9:56 PM, MANDA said:

I'm interested in how this evolves but a long way from excited.

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Maybe I'm too jaded by this winter but I'm not excited by anything until the RGEM is on board (so basically nothing outside of 84 hours and a model I trust). So far I've been right though, the one time the RGEM was on board we got snow. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

A storm will bring rain to Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City tomorrow into Saturday. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central New York State and central to northern New England. Albany could see 5"-10" of snow.

After what increasingly appears to be a warmer than normal first week to March, a colder regime could develop during the second week of the month. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. The colder regime could last into or even through the closing week of March.

In addition, historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City. Reflecting the base case scenario, the 12z operational ECMWF, GFS, and GGEM have no significant snowfall through March 10th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +12.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.099 today.

On February 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.253 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.982 (RMM).

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 3/2/2023 at 10:25 PM, donsutherland1 said:

A storm will bring rain to Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City tomorrow into Saturday. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central New York State and central to northern New England. Albany could see 5"-10" of snow.

After what increasingly appears to be a warmer than normal first week to March, a colder regime could develop during the second week of the month. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. The colder regime could last into or even through the closing week of March.

In addition, historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City. Reflecting the base case scenario, the 12z operational ECMWF, GFS, and GGEM have no significant snowfall through March 10th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +12.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.099 today.

On February 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.253 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.982 (RMM).

 

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Don, there's still a chance that what we've gotten is going to be it for the season.  That would keep this season as #1 in futility.

 

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Winterweatherlover

Winterweatherlover

Posted
Posted
  On 3/2/2023 at 11:20 PM, LibertyBell said:

Having a historically low snowfall season is still in play.

 

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Definitely, the upcoming pattern may have potential but can also be a complete shutout. I'm not too hopeful until I see storms actually showing up in the 4-5 day range. However I do get that a good pattern and cold air are important prerequisites for having a chance. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 3/2/2023 at 11:36 PM, Winterweatherlover said:

Definitely, the upcoming pattern may have potential but can also be a complete shutout. I'm not too hopeful until I see storms actually showing up in the 4-5 day range. However I do get that a good pattern and cold air are important prerequisites for having a chance. 

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IMO it's a 50/50 shot. I can easily see DC Baltimore and Philly getting an event and end up with more snow than CPK. Suppression will be the issue when the good pattern gets established March 10 onwards 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2023 at 12:27 AM, SnoSki14 said:

01/02 will still rank #1

This March is on track to be much colder and snowier than that year

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Until we’re within 48 hrs of anything this winter I’m not excited about it. Not saying this upcoming pattern doesn’t have potential, but there’s also the high potential of something ruining it. Can’t think of any time where a total crap winter was saved by a March blizzard. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2023 at 12:50 AM, jm1220 said:

Until we’re within 48 hrs of anything this winter I’m not excited about it. Not saying this upcoming pattern doesn’t have potential, but there’s also the high potential of something ruining it. Can’t think of any time where a total crap winter was saved by a March blizzard. 

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Not since the 50s.....unless you want to count 1993 which changed to rain here, although 1992-93 wasn't total crap.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2023 at 12:05 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don.

I would imagine that it would be hard to top 01/02 as I believe that March was well above average for temps that year.

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We're not going by temperatures though, we're going by snowfall.  If you want to include March temps then no winter tops 2011-12 which was far warmer, even than 2001-02.  These kinds of winters have become more common now.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2023 at 12:00 AM, Winterweatherlover said:

That would honestly make me more depressed than snow to our north. 

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Here's my thinking on getting the new snowfall record....if March is only going to have a 1-3 or 2-4 annoying little storm then might as well get the new snowfall record.    I'm torn about 4-8 because that would be interesting though still not big but much bigger than anything this season.  But if we're going to get a foot or more of snow, then it's worth it not to get the futility record.  But not for some piddly little 1-3 or 2-4 event.

 

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2023 at 12:50 AM, jm1220 said:

Until we’re within 48 hrs of anything this winter I’m not excited about it. Not saying this upcoming pattern doesn’t have potential, but there’s also the high potential of something ruining it. Can’t think of any time where a total crap winter was saved by a March blizzard. 

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So we’re due. Noted. 

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Winterweatherlover

Winterweatherlover

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2023 at 1:10 AM, LibertyBell said:

1-3, 2-4, 3-6..... dont care let's go for the futility record

6-12..... 50/50 (could go either way)

12+ ...... Let's go for the first footer in March in many decades!

 

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I'd def take 6-12, that's legit

 

In terms of lower amounts I lean the way you've stated in previous posts there is a difference between 3-6 inches followed by rain or 50 degree weather the next day vs 3-6 inches of all snow that sticks around for a little while. 

 

Also I really don't take the record very seriously because a lot of the area is already above the CPK number.  It's just one spot.  

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