SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc came way west Bring on the torch and end this embarrassing winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Game over Likely true but still over 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Bring on the torch and end this embarrassing winter This was never really going to be our storm unless we got lucky with the blocking squashing it, but spring isn't coming yet, the favorable period for wintry weather is more so mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: This was never really going to be our storm unless we got lucky with the blocking squashing it, but spring isn't coming yet, the favorable period for wintry weather is more so mid month. GFS/CMC looking much warmer for March. I think models are gonna back down on the cool anomalies and we'll still see an above normal month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Not that it matters much but for those wanting any good news the Ukie did trend a little south https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Enjoy whatever you get tonight/tomorrow morning. Those hoping for a big winter comeback 3/10 through the end of the March are probably going to be very disappointed. March, 2018 isn’t walking through the door 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Enjoy whatever you get tonight/tomorrow morning. Those hoping for a big winter comeback 3/10 through the end of the March are probably going to be very disappointed. March, 2018 isn’t walking through the door Depends on one's expectations really. 2018 was historic. I almost received an entire years snowfall after March 1st. I would agree I am not getting a years snowfall this March/April. It will get colder as compared to average. The pattern will still be active. If one is happy with the best pattern for snowfall since December then they will not be disappointed. As always a good pattern does not guarantee snow. However, its better than March 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Enjoy whatever you get tonight/tomorrow morning. Those hoping for a big winter comeback 3/10 through the end of the March are probably going to be very disappointed. March, 2018 isn’t walking through the door We are getting our biggest snow of the year tonight and you are still being negative. I haven’t seen too many people predict it’s going to be a March 2018 repeat. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Enjoy whatever you get tonight/tomorrow morning. Those hoping for a big winter comeback 3/10 through the end of the March are probably going to be very disappointed. March, 2018 isn’t walking through the door 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Enjoy whatever you get tonight/tomorrow morning. Those hoping for a big winter comeback 3/10 through the end of the March are probably going to be very disappointed. March, 2018 isn’t walking through the door what about the Friday into Saturday storm? I am seeing our local media outlets predicting snow now and temps in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: what about the Friday into Saturday storm? I am seeing our local media outlets predicting snow now and temps in the 30s. They're wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Who would have thought? Everyone bashes the GFS and look. Another storm that trended unfavorable. Smh. The GFS is only correct when it's warmer than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 We are getting our biggest snow of the year tonight and you are still being negative. I haven’t seen too many people predict it’s going to be a March 2018 repeat. It’s called being realistic, not negative. Is it going to get cold relative to March averages starting on 3/10 and beyond? Yes, if the models are correct. Is there going to be a parade of KU’s up the coast a la March, 2018? Incredibly doubtful 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what about the Friday into Saturday storm? I am seeing our local media outlets predicting snow now and temps in the 30s. Should see changes in the forecast after the 12z euro comes out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s called being realistic, not negative. Is it going to get cold relative to March averages starting on 3/10 and beyond? Yes, if the models are correct. Is there going to be a parade of KU’s up the coast a la March, 2018? Incredibly doubtful Ok you are right about that but I haven’t seen too many people predicting that except maybe one or two posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I guess he didn't look at the EPO, AO and MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro ticked north again, verbatim still not terrible, does transfer to a secondary off the NJ coast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 If the Euro/CMC don't go further north at the 0Z runs maybe the trend has stabilized, if they go even further north it's likely over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Eps looks absolutely amazing starting around March 10th for a late season storm. Hopefully we hold that look for the next few days 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps looks absolutely amazing starting around March 10th for a late season storm. Hopefully we hold that look for the next few days There's probably a window somewhere there but we've had favorable looks before. I do think odds are a lot better than December though. -PNA much less of an issue 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: It’s called being realistic, not negative. Is it going to get cold relative to March averages starting on 3/10 and beyond? Yes, if the models are correct. Is there going to be a parade of KU’s up the coast a la March, 2018? Incredibly doubtful I think most would settle for March 1992 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Wow euro and eps for March 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS just came in noticeably colder for Friday, nice front end thump. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Wow euro and eps for March And Euro weeklies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: And Euro weeklies What does the CFS say? I heard that you shouldn't look at any of these models for a monthly forecast until the last week of the month, well that's here now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: GFS just came in noticeably colder for Friday, nice front end thump. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= There will almost certainly be front end snows with this, even at the coast with the high where it is located. Winds would probably be NE ahead of it and we'd funnel in fairly dry air but it would flip after 1 inch at best as currently depicted. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 There will almost certainly be front end snows with this, even at the coast with the high where it is located. Winds would probably be NE ahead of it and we'd funnel in fairly dry air but it would flip after 1 inch at best as currently depicted.The models show 725-750mb getting torched very quickly. I can see more sleet than a big dump of snow at the onset, even north and west of NYC. Warm noses are always badly undermodeled at this range. Verbatim there would be fairly intense WAA at 725-750mb with the low level jet punching in 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The models show 725-750mb getting torched very quickly. I can see more sleet than a big dump of snow at the onset, even north and west of NYC. Warm noses are always badly undermodeled at this range. Verbatim there would be fairly intense WAA at 725-750mb with the low level jet punching in I still have some concerns the front running system is going to mess this storm up to some degree...it may just take another 24-36 hours til the models begin seeing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 46 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There will almost certainly be front end snows with this, even at the coast with the high where it is located. Winds would probably be NE ahead of it and we'd funnel in fairly dry air but it would flip after 1 inch at best as currently depicted. what about for the Poconos? I may be headed there that weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: And Euro weeklies 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Wow euro and eps for March Remember all those drool worthy runs in December. All we got was a big cutter and a couple frigid days for Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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