Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=123&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Going to be a battle between the high to the north and that strong low. Forced south, gfs picking up on the blocking https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Slight tick north on CMC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Very close runs for this weekend for the area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Very close runs for this weekend for the area The GFS as usual is missing the fact that even if its track is correct we will see snow even to the coast for awhile to start. I am still concerned about the system prior to this flattening things enough that the people in the far north camp might be disappointed in the end but its also not gonna be a DCA event either 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 17 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Sure but it has almost zero staying power. I personally hate late winter snows. Anything outside of a 1956 or 1888 or 2018 to some extent after March 10 is meh to me. But because I've had nothing this winter I'll settle for anything just once. Hopefully Monday night delivers you forgot 1982 and 2003 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Better well defined secondary this run it looks like. Would be kind of frustrating to waste this with cold air at the start of the storm but I can see your snow to rain scenario being a possible outcome. the reality is 90% of the storms here are snow to rain, getting a big all snow storm is very rare I dont care for that kind of storm, but some do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 15 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: The bleeding stopped this run of the GFS. This time we have a 1 to 3 thump of snow before the flip. Low is a little SE of 12z. This run is close to what I am thinking. Time will tell how much of a thump before the changeover. these are meh early 90s type of "snow" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: these are meh early 90s type of "snow" 100% even 1980s remember Danbury getting clocked in the 80s while we had a quick changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the reality is 90% of the storms here are snow to rain, getting a big all snow storm is very rare I dont care for that kind of storm, but some do It’s not my favorite type of storm by any means but it’s more interesting than all rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: 100% even 1980s remember Danbury getting clocked in the 80s while we had a quick changeover. That was when I wanted to dump liquid helium into the Atlantic I wonder how much it would take? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 FWIW GEPS matches the GEFS in timing while matching the EPS in cold. Good middle ground for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: FWIW GEPS matches the GEFS in timing while matching the EPS in cold. Good middle ground for now. wait whats the difference between the GEPS and the EPS? we just need to settle on one set of names lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wait whats the difference between the GEPS and the EPS? we just need to settle on one set of names lol Geps is Canadian ensembles. Not same as eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Geps is Canadian ensembles. Not same as eps wow we should just go by region then Canadian, European and American instead of all these ridiculous acronyms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow we should just go by region then Canadian, European and American instead of all these ridiculous acronyms So instead of rgem I have to type out regional Canadian model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wait whats the difference between the GEPS and the EPS? we just need to settle on one set of names lol GEPS are the Canadian ensembles. They match the EPS in cold however start the good period a couple days later like the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 There's probably a March 10-15 window and there have been notable events around that period in the past. It's really the last realistic chance at something significant as anything after mid March is highly anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEPS are the Canadian ensembles. They match the EPS in cold however start the good period a couple days later like the GEFS But why do their names look so similar? They should change the names so their acronyms dont look alike. GEPS should be changed to CEPS. and GEFS should be changed to AEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's probably a March 10-15 window and there have been notable events around that period in the past. It's really the last realistic chance at something significant as anything after mid March is highly anomalous. March 1992 may be an analog after a paltry winter season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So instead of rgem I have to type out regional Canadian model? RGEM is well known and doesn't look like the others, but GEFS, GEPS and EPS all look very similar to me, especially GEPS and EPS. I am going to start calling it the CEPS from now on, for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But why do their names look so similar? They should change the names so their acronyms dont look alike. GEPS should be changed to CEPS. and GEFS should be changed to AEFS. Yeah not sure on why they named as such. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS still look very amped and warm for Friday-Saturday. However this is what it looked like at hour 81 for tonight. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022418&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Who would have thought? Everyone bashes the GFS and look. Another storm that trended unfavorable. Smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who would have thought? Everyone bashes the GFS and look. Another storm that trended unfavorable. Smh. It’s why I haven’t even commented on this storm yet. It’s impossible to be excited about anything more than 4-5 days out. Maybe the confluence can press it south but the SE ridge is going to try and make it cut. I plan to enjoy whatever falls tonight/tomorrow and hopefully at some point by the end we can get a little more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who would have thought? Everyone bashes the GFS and look. Another storm that trended unfavorable. Smh. Let’s hope that the Euro and CMC holds serve where they’re at now and the GFS corrects SE tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Let’s hope that the Euro and CMC holds serve where they’re at now and the GFS corrects SE tomorrow. Cmc came way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s why I haven’t even commented on this storm yet. It’s impossible to be excited about anything more than 4-5 days out. Maybe the confluence can press it south but the SE ridge is going to try and make it cut. I plan to enjoy whatever falls tonight/tomorrow and hopefully at some point by the end we can get a little more. There's also just a lack of cold air. And now the Cmc caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc came way west Game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 SE ridge is killing us this winter. Damn La Niña. Hope that tonight’s storm over produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Let’s hope that the Euro and CMC holds serve where they’re at now and the GFS corrects SE tomorrow.The CMC caved to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now