MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:22 PM, Winterweatherlover said: 3/4 storm Like: 12z cmc don’t like: gfs trending even more NW Expand Gfs is alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:25 PM, MJO812 said: Gfs is alone Expand For now but the other models are ticking north. Hopefully the blocking can come through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:27 PM, Winterweatherlover said: For now but the other models are ticking north. Hopefully the blocking can come through. Expand Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:22 PM, Winterweatherlover said: 3/4 storm Like: 12z cmc don’t like: gfs trending even more NW Expand Good to see the CMC. That being said CMC did move north. We need to stop the models suite from moving north every series. Still a lot of time. I still contend we have the most potential starting March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:27 PM, Winterweatherlover said: For now but the other models are ticking north. Hopefully the blocking can come through. Expand Yeah it's still good for us on the cmc but got much worse for lower mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 How does the GEFS look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:28 PM, Stormlover74 said: Yeah it's still good for us on the cmc but got much worse for lower mid Atlantic Expand Big hit for DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:12 PM, Stormlover74 said: If the other models hold I'll agree the gfs is out to lunch but if they trend north even a little it could be bad news Expand @bluewave as he always posts and is correct you want this south of us outside 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:34 PM, Allsnow said: @bluewave as he always posts and is correct you want this south of us outside 72 hours Expand Yes and the GFS is always wrong when it is further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Ukie came way north. Big hit for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 3:33 PM, EastonSN+ said: Yeah definitely. The good news is this time it has not been delayed to date. GEFS was always a couple days later than the EPS. Likely resulting from the difference in timing of the MJO. I am 90% certain of a favorable window at this time. My question is the duration. 7 days. 10. Up in the air. Of course a favorable window does not guarantee that success olis realized. Expand I mean it could be delayed to March 15 and we'd still be okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 1:20 PM, MJO812 said: Euro hasnt been stellar for years Expand it is the best of a bad lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:34 PM, Allsnow said: @bluewave as he always posts and is correct you want this south of us outside 72 hours Expand That wasn't the case for the storm tomorrow but I know thats a rare oddity. I agree my gut feeling is this is going to end up too far north for us but hope I'm wrong. It's not even so much that the Ukie/GFS are north that worries me because those models are whacky but the fact the Euro and CMC are bumping north every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 4:39 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: KU setup imo.. it could change. Biggest threat to change is that Aleutian island high needs to break in pattern.. we have rain going up into the Davis Straight and Alaska.. sometimes that high latitude stuff trends back to -PNA. Expand Courtesy of Chuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 5:03 PM, Winterweatherlover said: That wasn't the case for the storm tomorrow but I know thats a rare oddity. I agree my gut feeling is this is going to end up too far north for us but hope I'm wrong. It's not even so much that the Ukie/GFS are north that worries me because those models are whacky but the fact the Euro and CMC are bumping north every run. Expand Tomorrow is a Miller B. So the CAD came in a little stronger than some of the older runs. There was not much room for it to come north. But the late week storm is more of a Miller A. You want that to be suppressed at this range otherwise it could ride too far north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 5:18 PM, bluewave said: Tomorrow is a Miller B. So the CAD came in a little stronger than some of the older runs. There was not much room for it to come north. But the late week storm is more of a Miller A. You want that to be suppressed at this range otherwise it could ride too far north. Expand Why is the GFS the only one with the storm too far north for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 5:36 PM, LibertyBell said: Why is the GFS the only one with the storm too far north for us? Expand Its a combo of confluence but also the CMC has a much more potent S/W over the Pac NW which might be not allowing the system to amplify as much over the Plains. the GFS is way weaker with that system over the NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 5:41 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Its a combo of confluence but also the CMC has a much more potent S/W over the Pac NW which might be not allowing the system to amplify as much over the Plains. the GFS is way weaker with that system over the NW Expand Is this a case where we need to wait for tomorrow's storm to get out of the way first and get better sampling from that region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 5:44 PM, LibertyBell said: Is this a case where we need to wait for tomorrow's storm to get out of the way first and get better sampling from that region? Expand The system from 90-108 is likely going to impact things too...that is likely to be more an issue than many think...we've had issues this winter before where a proceeding system has impacted the ensuing one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 5:46 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The system from 90-108 is likely going to impact things too...that is likely to be more an issue than many think...we've had issues this winter before where a proceeding system has impacted the ensuing one Expand Yes, would that be bad spacing? Maybe that system from 90-108 will cause the following one to be more suppressed in its wake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro will be a Rainer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 5:46 PM, LibertyBell said: Yes, would that be bad spacing? Maybe that system from 90-108 will cause the following one to be more suppressed in its wake? Expand Thursday storm is very weak now so Friday storm looks to cut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro not GFS level bad but trending in that direction. Surprised if the GFS is leading the way for once, oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 6:30 PM, Winterweatherlover said: Euro not GFS level bad but trending in that direction. Surprised if the GFS is leading the way for once, oh well. Expand It is ? You do realize this storm is 5 days away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 6:30 PM, Winterweatherlover said: Euro not GFS level bad but trending in that direction. Surprised if the GFS is leading the way for once, oh well. Expand Models are all over the place right now. Give it til Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Not good that this is already trending north and warmer at this range. Hopefully we can get our few inches tomorrow night to end the snow event drought, since the late week storm isn't looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 5:36 PM, LibertyBell said: Why is the GFS the only one with the storm too far north for us? Expand I probably spoke too soon. This is looking more like a wrapped up Miller A. So notice the stronger -PNA and SE Ridge on todays run. So nothing to stop later runs from coming even further north with such an amped up system. The -NAO block over Eastern Canada is even weaker. New run Old run 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 6:42 PM, bluewave said: I probably spoke too soon. This is looking more like a wrapped up Miller A. So notice the stronger -PNA and SE Ridge on todays run. So nothing to stop later runs from coming even further north with such an amped up system. The -NAO block over Eastern Canada is even weaker. New run Old run Expand Yup. Gfs leading the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 6:44 PM, Allsnow said: Yup. Gfs leading the way Expand Not even close yet Gefs is way east of the op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 6:42 PM, bluewave said: I probably spoke too soon. This is looking more like a wrapped up Miller A. So notice the stronger -PNA and SE Ridge on todays run. So nothing to stop later runs from coming even further north with such an amped up system. The -NAO block over Eastern Canada is even weaker. New run Old run Expand Models usually have a hard time with blocking Finally a week of tracking 2 storms. Been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now