SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 3/4 on GFS still cuts but clearly trending in a better direction. I'm willing to get GEFS will be east of OP GEFS is east 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 18z eps way nw for the 3rd. Would be all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z eps way nw for the 3rd. Would be all rain There's a good 50/50 and block in place. I think we'll see models deamplify and trend S/E like we're seeing for the 28th as we get closer. Blocking regimes are prob the only time where systems trend S/E as we get closer though that doesn't always apply. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Fridays ugly on the gfs. No frozen near the city Cmc a big hit south jersey mid Atlantic. Few inches elsewhere Ukie looks like a big hit incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Fridays ugly on the gfs. No frozen near the city Cmc a big hit south jersey mid Atlantic. Few inches elsewhere Ukie looks like a big hit incoming It all comes down to the strength of the 50/50 underneath the blocking high. GFS is the weakest with it so the storm cuts N/W however the last few runs have been trending better with that feature. If trends continue then you'll see big shifts S/E and a transfer to the coast. We'll know a lot more after the 28th storm passes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro snowfall for next weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Wow, we're in a good place for it, if that is anywhere close to reality-- too bad the Euro isn't as great as it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gfs continues with the Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs continues with the Rainer Gfs showing signs of coming around though. Playing catch up as usual. Buckle up It’s going to be an active week folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 25 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Gfs showing signs of coming around though. Playing catch up as usual. Buckle up It’s going to be an active week folks. Active March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Gfs continues with the Rainer why do our media outlets insist on using the GFS....is it some kind of faux "patriotic" thing they think they're doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why do our media outlets insist on using the GFS....is it some kind of faux "patriotic" thing they think they're doing? real meteorologists always prefer the euro to the gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, nycwinter said: real meteorologists always prefer the euro to the gfs well with the Euro's track record since 2015 I don't know.....but a combo of the Euro and CMC seems like a better bet than the GFS. Really, the GFS seems to be on its own now and that's never a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, nycwinter said: real meteorologists always prefer the euro to the gfs Euro hasnt been stellar for years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gfs vs all is usually a good spot to be in if all show something else we prefer. In this case it’s still a bit too far out to take anything that seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gfs showing signs of coming around though. Playing catch up as usual. Buckle up It’s going to be an active week folks.No, it’s really not. It’s consistently showing an inland runner setup, small movements run to run are noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No, it’s really not. It’s consistently showing an inland runner setup, small movements run to run are noise what do you make of this big difference in the GFS vs the other models, what's causing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No, it’s really not. It’s consistently showing an inland runner setup, small movements run to run are noise How convenient that you suddenly praise the GFS after constantly trashing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 I would be happy with a good thump even if it transitions to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Still on track for approx the 10th. GEFS and GEPS are on board. GEFS is later and GEPS is sooner. Will post the EPS and it's in the middle timing wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Still on track for approx the 10th. GEFS and GEPS are on board. GEFS is later and GEPS is sooner. Will post the EPS and it's in the middle timing wise.If that starts getting delayed much beyond March 10th, start worrying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The front running system from 96-108 IMO is what makes it more likely a Euro type solution happens vs GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Still on track for approx the 10th. GEFS and GEPS are on board. GEFS is later and GEPS is sooner. Will post the EPS and it's in the middle timing wise. Whats the difference between GEPS and EPS lol. Why all these acronyms lol-- why can't we just call them the Euro Ensembles and GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I would be happy with a good thump even if it transitions to rain. If it goes south of us it won't change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If that starts getting delayed much beyond March 10th, start worrying Yeah definitely. The good news is this time it has not been delayed to date. GEFS was always a couple days later than the EPS. Likely resulting from the difference in timing of the MJO. I am 90% certain of a favorable window at this time. My question is the duration. 7 days. 10. Up in the air. Of course a favorable window does not guarantee that success olis realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: No, it’s really not. It’s consistently showing an inland runner setup, small movements run to run are noise Agree, if anything the other models are trending more north. Imo this has room to trend even more north, the trough is going negative over the midwest. The gfs has a low over SNE, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up over Buffalo in the end. The gfs isn’t the best model but just looking at the overall setup and the ensemble guidance, a more north solution makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, George001 said: Agree, if anything the other models are trending more north. Imo this has room to trend even more north, the trough is going negative over the midwest. The gfs has a low over SNE, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up over Buffalo in the end. The gfs isn’t the best model but just looking at the overall setup and the ensemble guidance, a more north solution makes sense. Sadly I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Sadly I agree The block will have a say This looks good for us Look at tomorrow's storm. It trended south over the past few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The block will have a say This looks good for us Look at tomorrow's storm. It trended south over the past few days. If the other models hold I'll agree the gfs is out to lunch but if they trend north even a little it could be bad news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3/4 storm Like: 12z cmc don’t like: gfs trending even more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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