Rjay Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Is it finally coming or just more lolz? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Here it is 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Will March average within a degree of normal at CP... possibly less than the actual January 2023 average. Also, can March reach the 5" average for snowfall at CP? Prevailing impressions from the snow drought distraught are probably not. Still worthy of keeping the door open for a while. These two CPC graphics issued 2/24 serve as basis for interest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 March is the new December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: March is the new December Any big threats still on the models? Have not had a chance to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: March is the new December We've basically had 3 months of March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: We've basically had 3 months of March I see what he is saying though. 00 through 2012 it almost never snowed in March while it snowed in December a lot. Conversely, 2013 through now March has been snowier than December. Side note - the former had wayyy warmer springs while the latter has had wayyy warmer Falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I see what he is saying though. 00 through 2012 it almost never snowed in March while it snowed in December a lot. Conversely, 2013 through now March has been snowier than December. Side note - the former had wayyy warmer springs while the latter has had wayyy warmer Falls. This is a lot like the 50s, usually when you have bad winters, March is the snowiest month. Simply because it didn't snow much in the other months and March has the confluence of both warm and cold nearby and loads of moisture laden spring systems. Plus add in the fact that a lot of our bad winters have a -PNA and that has much less of an effect in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Still on track for our cold/potentially snowy period starting approx 3.10 1. There will be a big warm up around the 5th where the SE Ridge links with the NAO. 2. The RNA rises and the AO falls for approx the 10th. The ensembles are in agreement. Big question on the duration. Warmup Window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Stole from MA forum. Agrees with the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Still on track for our cold/potentially snowy period starting approx 3.10 1. There will be a big warm up around the 5th where the SE Ridge links with the NAO. 2. The RNA rises and the AO falls for approx the 10th. The ensembles are in agreement. Big question on the duration. Warmup Window How high will this warmup peak at? So it's a 5 day warmup between the 5-10 and then colder again for the rest of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How high will this warmup peak at? So it's a 5 day warmup between the 5-10 and then colder again for the rest of the month? The EPS is warmer with the warmup and colder with the target period. The warmup with be 2 to 5 days while the Target period is 7 plus days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How high will this warmup peak at? So it's a 5 day warmup between the 5-10 and then colder again for the rest of the month? I should add this is highly dependent on the RNA. If it stays be below -1sd then the target period can end up a bust. RNA driving the bus (a factor of the Aleutian ridge due to la Nina). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I should add this is highly dependent on the RNA. If it stays be below -1sd then the target period can end up a bust. RNA driving the bus (a factor of the Aleutian ridge due to la Nina). Question: when did the -PNA terminology change to RNA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, USCG RS said: Question: when did the -PNA terminology change to RNA? Yeah I learned about it from TIP in the NE forum. RNA just means -PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I learned about it from TIP in the NE forum. RNA just means -PNA. It's nice to keep it to -PNA because RNA is a biological term. Also -RNA sounds like a double negative, a -RNA would be a +PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 It's crazy how different the GFS and GEM are for the 3/4 event. GFS goes right over us with rain while the GEM gives Virginia and NC snow. If I had to bet I would say the GFS is correct as this is the time the SER connects with the NAO. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Next storm to watch is next weekend Gfs is the only model that's inland atm. Ukie is a nice hit Geps is also a nice hit Cmc and Euro are suppressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next storm to watch is next weekend Gfs is the only model that's inland atm. Ukie is a nice hit Geps is also a nice hit Cmc and Euro are suppressed Yup an gfs is on its own basically for Tuesday 2/28. I'd rather have cmc euro suppressed at this stage anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Here comes the euro for next weekend . Nothing like the gfs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Here comes the euro for next weekend . Nothing like the gfs . A few inches Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: A few inches Friday night 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: What are your thoughts on this one? What worries me is this is the timeframe that the ensembles link the SER to the NAO. Given that I would think that the GFS is more right UNLESS the ensembles are in incorrect. I hope the EURO is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We all know this baby is trending north. Give me a 100 mile jog please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 March is going to be good Wpo going negative Epo negative Ao negative Nao negative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 We NEED a slight RNA and SER to avoid suppression. This looks pretty good for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3/4 on GFS still cuts but clearly trending in a better direction. I'm willing to get GEFS will be east of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 3/4 on GFS still cuts but clearly trending in a better direction. I'm willing to get GEFS will be easy of OP Basically ends up on top of us but colder for sure with a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 3/4 on GFS still cuts but clearly trending in a better direction. I'm willing to get GEFS will be east of OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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