NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 UKIE puts the 1-1.5” over the Beltway and East. Decent stuff tonight thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 43 minutes ago, high risk said: A couple of corrections here: 1) The SREF is not truly connected to the NAM. Half of the SREF members use the same model core as the NAM, but half use the same core that is used by the HRRR. 2) Neither the NAM nor the SREF has been upgraded in many years, and both systems are due for retirement within the next 2-3 years. Haha I'm definitely just now realizing that my weather model knowledge is extremely dated. In my head, NAM was just upgraded from 4k to 3k. So is the FV... whatever model the replacement for NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 No overnight activity here but things still generally look good for T-1” for many. Could end up being the best event of the season if temps cooperate as it looks like they might. Too bad it’s #sunangleseason though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Sref mean is 1 with multiple indv near 2 for Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: No overnight activity here but things still generally look good for T-1” for many. Could end up being the best event of the season if temps cooperate as it looks like they might. Too bad it’s #sunangleseason though. Need some decent lift to get the rates needed to cool the surface and overcome the insolation. That may happen in a rather small area. Overall it looks like generally light precip. Too bad on the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Ellicott City jackpot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Looks like a memorable event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 this is definitely has the feel of a Special Weather Statement criteria event. probably best to move your cars folks now out of the Special Weather Statement routes before they are towed. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 For the first time this season, every model has snow for the region <24 hours before the event and <24 hours after an 80 degree day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 12z GFS would be the best event of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 12z GFS would be the best event of the winter Would be a nice event. Fingers crossed the Euro gets a little more enthused. 3 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Would be a nice event. Fingers crossed the Euro gets a little more enthused. That would increase my winter snowfall by close to 2000%! Pushing chips in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: That would increase my winter snowfall by close to 2000%! Pushing chips in. it would be cool to see daylight snow...I dont think we have seen that...meaning you and I in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: it would be cool to see daylight snow...I dont think we have seen that...meaning you and I in our region Agreed. The only “event” for us was that dusting a few weeks back and it all fell between like 4 and 6am. I have a snowball in the freezer to memorialize the score lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 RGEM is a nice period of snow for Baltimore area but temps mostly above freezing. GFS shows temps at or even slightly below freezing. 3k NAM has a flurry maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: RGEM is a nice period of snow for Baltimore area but temps mostly above freezing. GFS shows temps at or even slightly below freezing. 3k NAM has a flurry maybe? Yeah, even 24 hours out it's a toss up amongst the models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Yeah, even 24 hours out it's a toss up amongst the models lol Looks like it will be a nowcast type of deal. The way this winter has gone, flakes flying would be a win in my book. Besides, I have a tee time Sunday afternoon hoping to crack 60 degrees. If nothing else, a wild weather week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 12 hours ago, paulythegun said: Haha I'm definitely just now realizing that my weather model knowledge is extremely dated. In my head, NAM was just upgraded from 4k to 3k. So is the FV... whatever model the replacement for NAM? Sort of. The FV3 is the model "core". The GFS already uses the FV3 core. The NAM uses the NMMB core, and the RAP/HRRR use the ARW core. The NAM/RAP are technically to be "replaced" by the GFS. All of the hi-res models (including the NAM Nest and HRRR) will be replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) ensemble system which will use the FV3 core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM is a nice period of snow for Baltimore area but temps mostly above freezing. GFS shows temps at or even slightly below freezing. 3k NAM has a flurry maybe? The NAM Nest is pretty clearly a dry outlier; it looks like every other model (including the NAM parent) has snow here tomorrow. You're spot on, though, that the temperatures are super tricky. It's tough to imagine a scenario in which the roads get messy (unless the rates are *really* impressive), but I can definitely envision some accumulation on grassy surfaces and decks. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Still a Calvert county jack. Expect many pictures of fallen leaves with a dusting of snow on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 12z EURO places a nice stripe just south of the District. Even has the NMD band as well. Temps are marginal but I imagine it would be pretty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Need a bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Need a bump north Need a very slight bump south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Let's go - I'm on board. Normally I would be telling late Feb events (unless we were measuring in feet) to fuck off, but since we've gotten basically a dusting all year, we run with different season-end criteria at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Need a bump north Fighting temps to the south and dry air to the north lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Let's go - I'm on board. Normally I would be telling late Feb events (unless we were measuring in feet) to fuck off, but since we've gotten basically a dusting all year, we run with different season-end criteria at the moment. I'm on board for an actual snowstorm lol. I don't know about this one, but I know others are happy just to see snow. In late February...I'm happy to see a snowstorm, but I've pretty much retired from cartoppers for the season. Maybe this will surprise for a couple hours for the southern crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 36 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: Need a very slight bump south Looks just right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Covering the grass will be just fine for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, 87storms said: I'm on board for an actual snowstorm lol. I don't know about this one, but I know others are happy just to see snow. In late February...I'm happy to see a snowstorm, but I've pretty much retired from cartoppers for the season. Maybe this will surprise for a couple hours for the southern crew. Some of us haven't even had a cartopper yet... that's whats crazy. If I see a half inch it will be my biggest event of the season here just E of BWI 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Rare... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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