NorthArlington101 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 With some decent consensus between the GFS/NAM/CMC/EURO for flakes, maybe even measurable snow Saturday, figured I’d spread this out from discussion on our longer range looks. Sorry if this thread kills things entirely! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 HECD (Histoircal East Coast Dusting) on the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: With some decent consensus between the GFS/NAM/CMC/EURO for flakes, maybe even measurable snow Saturday, figured I’d spread this out from discussion on our longer range looks. Sorry if this thread kills things entirely! The jinx isn't real. Irrational. If it were, Justin Tucker would miss a lot more kicks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Within 48 hours is totally appropriate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 We’re all but out of GEFS range but they moistened up. 1” mean around DC.Hoping I can bring this thread home like the early Feb “storm.” Best of luck, everyone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: The jinx isn't real. Irrational. If it were Justin Tucker would miss a lot more kicks. My money says it’s completely gone next model cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I changed my mind. I think it’ll definitely snow Saturday. And every flake will melt on contact and be just one more kick in the nuts from this winter. Plus we started the thread under 48 hours so we have a lot working for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My money says it’s completely gone next model cycle. Pretty good chance, since it has been alternating between 'completely gone' and 'kinda there' for several runs now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Latest GFS has me near jackpot...1.9". I'll provide play-by-play during the relentless onslaught. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 DCA at 1 pm on Saturday...lolz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Let’s bring it home ladies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 Nothing worth dissecting on the 18z EURO. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: We’re all but out of GEFS range but they moistened up. 1” mean around DC. Hoping I can bring this thread home like the early Feb “storm.” Best of luck, everyone. No help from the short term ensemble though...highest value for dca is 0.37" of snow 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 New Plumes are up!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 New Plumes are up!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Nothing worth dissecting on the 18z EURO. Next So you're saying as soon as this thread was made guidance starting losing the flizzard? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 So you're saying as soon as this thread was made guidance starting losing the flizzard? Interesting.Didn’t you see the SREF plumes above? It’s never looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Didn’t you see the SREF plumes above? It’s never looked better Ah yes, the SREFs. The NAM ensembles. A very dependable and accurate piece of guidance. Times like these I miss the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 NAM is a little juicier. Tiny bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, ChillinIt said: NAM!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, ChillinIt said: NAM!!!! Epic. Life is good. Holy shit…Where’s the Tylenol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, ChillinIt said: New Plumes are up!!!!! With no scale. Well played 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 RGEM is solid Bwahahahahha! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 RGEM is solid Bwahahahahha!Deserves to be mocked, but it’s also it’s best run for the system yet. Sad state of affairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Actually I was trolling. But wouldnt the RGEM be the best storm of the year for Baltimore? Bwahahahahaha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 For this “winter” the 0z GFS would work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS on crack, but I’d kill for this on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ah yes, the SREFs. The NAM ensembles. A very dependable and accurate piece of guidance. Times like these I miss the CRAS. Haha sure, but SREF has its uses. And they upgrade the resolution as they upgrade NAM. I find it mostly useful for QPF. it's not ever going to do well with marginal temps. And you can clearly see that in the snow plumes. They often look like a bell curve when there should be both a cluster of higher and lower solutions (reflecting banding placement and sharp cutoffs due to temp issues) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Haha sure, but SREF has its uses. And they upgrade the resolution as they upgrade NAM. I find it mostly useful for QPF. it's not ever going to do well with marginal temps. And you can clearly see that in the snow plumes. They often look like a bell curve when there should be both a cluster of higher and lower solutions (reflecting banding placement and sharp cutoffs due to temp issues) Well. I mean the HerpEDerp likes rain so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Haha sure, but SREF has its uses. And they upgrade the resolution as they upgrade NAM. I find it mostly useful for QPF. it's not ever going to do well with marginal temps. And you can clearly see that in the snow plumes. They often look like a bell curve when there should be both a cluster of higher and lower solutions (reflecting banding placement and sharp cutoffs due to temp issues) A couple of corrections here: 1) The SREF is not truly connected to the NAM. Half of the SREF members use the same model core as the NAM, but half use the same core that is used by the HRRR. 2) Neither the NAM nor the SREF has been upgraded in many years, and both systems are due for retirement within the next 2-3 years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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