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02/25 Light Snow Chance Disco/Obs


NorthArlington101
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3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

With some decent consensus between the GFS/NAM/CMC/EURO for flakes, maybe even measurable snow Saturday, figured I’d spread this out from discussion on our longer range looks.

 

Sorry if this thread kills things entirely!

 

The jinx isn't real. Irrational.

If it were, Justin Tucker would miss a lot more kicks.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ah yes, the SREFs. The NAM ensembles. A very dependable and accurate piece of guidance. Times like these I miss the CRAS.

Haha sure, but SREF has its uses. And they upgrade the resolution as they upgrade NAM. I find it mostly useful for QPF. it's not ever going to do well with marginal temps. And you can clearly see that in the snow plumes. They often look like a bell curve when there should be both a cluster of higher and lower solutions (reflecting banding placement and sharp cutoffs due to temp issues)

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3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Haha sure, but SREF has its uses. And they upgrade the resolution as they upgrade NAM. I find it mostly useful for QPF. it's not ever going to do well with marginal temps. And you can clearly see that in the snow plumes. They often look like a bell curve when there should be both a cluster of higher and lower solutions (reflecting banding placement and sharp cutoffs due to temp issues)

Well. I mean the HerpEDerp likes rain so...

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_46.png

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13 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Haha sure, but SREF has its uses. And they upgrade the resolution as they upgrade NAM. I find it mostly useful for QPF. it's not ever going to do well with marginal temps. And you can clearly see that in the snow plumes. They often look like a bell curve when there should be both a cluster of higher and lower solutions (reflecting banding placement and sharp cutoffs due to temp issues)

        A couple of corrections here:

    1)  The SREF is not truly connected to the NAM.    Half of the SREF members use the same model core as the NAM, but half use the same core that is used by the HRRR.

    2)  Neither the NAM nor the SREF has been upgraded in many years, and both systems are due for retirement within the next 2-3 years.

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