Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Jan/Feb were base warm patterns with cold fronts which rolled through - notably the ice storm. Current pattern appears to be base cold w/ warm-ups in between. Just looking at LR modeling....looks like wave after wave of cold. If we get lucky, the MJO will rotate into warm phases by April(before coming around again into cold phases) and give us a respite. Have I said how much I really don't like cold during April? I have my limits as to when I like it freezing cold...April is pushing those limits. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Models have flattened out the wave associated with next weeks storm. Probably right where we want it at this range. It would be fitting for the last threat to be suppressed though lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Yeah, I can’t decide if we want it flat or not. The GFS at 0z was a strong coastal. 6z was flat. The trend overnight has been generally weaker with the exception of the 0z GFS run. We have seen those storms do exactly that at this range...and a three run trends takes it to St Louis regardless of blocking. Looks to me like a hp is suppressing the track. We do prob want to see it bounce back by tomorrow morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Fountain beat me to it. Not too upset to see the system vanish days 5-6. Note that WPC still has QPF those days. I'd be happy to see the system show up again, without a mega-cut knuckle ball. Carvers STL captures that idea, lol! Never take anything off the table in the Southeast. 12Z Euro update. Nah, I'll tell you what's gonna happen. Spoiled NC whiners will get one on the coast. Is that even worse than the STL cut? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Fountain beat me to it. Not too upset to see the system vanish days 5-6. Note that WPC still has QPF those days. I'd be happy to see the system show up again, without a mega-cut knuckle ball. Carvers STL captures that idea, lol! Never take anything off the table in the Southeast. 12Z Euro update. Nah, I'll tell you what's gonna happen. Spoiled NC whiners will get one on the coast. Is that even worse than the STL cut? guarantee one or the other. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Fountain beat me to it. Not too upset to see the system vanish days 5-6. Note that WPC still has QPF those days. I'd be happy to see the system show up again, without a mega-cut knuckle ball. Carvers STL captures that idea, lol! Never take anything off the table in the Southeast. 12Z Euro update. Nah, I'll tell you what's gonna happen. Spoiled NC whiners will get one on the coast. Is that even worse than the STL cut? Honestly I don't think many anyone East of I-85 have much hope. Even the runs that favor them it's all a cold rain. Your'e going to want to have atleast a bit of elevation for this one. I'm indifferent abt it. It's one of the best looks of the winter for snow for the SE. But it's March and not early March. Temps will be a problem if we even get the precip. This setup in January would be mouthwatering. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 So far, the last 5 days have yielded -7.34F BN at TRI. The past two days have been roughly -13F BN. We had one day where we didn't make it out of the 30s for max temps. Lowest temp during this time frame was 20F. A trace of snow has been recorded at the airport. I had a trace of frozen precip at my place during two of those days. Modeling has been exceptional with this time frame. The mountains above 5,000' are snow capped in NE TN. The freeze from the past two nights has damaged blooming plants for sure. Lots of brown buds on pear and peach trees unfortunately. As for the LR forecast, more cold through the 25th. Then, I think we see some moderation towards the very end of this month and early April. After that, the MJO is showing signs of looping back into colder phases after its tour through the colder phases ends(skipping warmer phases). The warm-up later this month should correspond to the loop into the COD and maybe some brief time in 7 before potentially looping back into 8. El Nino springs are a bear. I wouldn't be surprised for the mountains to get more snow and for the NE areas of the forum to see more snow showers at some point. As for next weeks system, just isn't organized on modeling and that has been a clear trend. Let's see if modeling gets it back today or overnight. The GFS was a bit more organized(but slightly off the coast ) at 6z...but it might be over-amped. Otherwise, probably time to bid farewell to that long shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Indeed the average temp for March is only 0.4 higher than the totality of Feb so far. Today may well bring us below Feb's average at TRI. I can't remember who asked that, but there you go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 17, 2023 Author Share Posted March 17, 2023 Seasonal snowfall to date. Check out that Eastman bubble around Kingsport. A zoomed out view: 3 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Seasonal snowfall to date. Check out that Eastman bubble around Kingsport. A zoomed out view: Ha! Ha! The center of that bubble is over my house! I had a couple of inches of snow this winter. I won’t miss the pattern of the last three winters - especially the Jan and Feb part! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 On 3/17/2023 at 10:57 AM, Carvers Gap said: Ha! Ha! The center of that bubble is over my house! I had a couple of inches of snow this winter. I won’t miss the pattern of the last three winters - especially the Jan and Feb part! Suddenly, my decision to snowchase to Carbondale in January is further validated, lol. Glad I made that call. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 What an annoying cold weekend! Soccer tomorrow will not be fun. Hopefully the WC is less than today. Winter is just rubbing salt into our winter wounds at this point. A couple more days then 60s-70s arrive. Winter can leave & hopefully the door hits it on the way out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 On 3/17/2023 at 7:17 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: Seasonal snowfall to date. Check out that Eastman bubble around Kingsport. A zoomed out view: Whew, what a lame winter. Even the mountains didn't get too much this year comparatively. Southeast and Mid Atlantic pretty much shut out. You can really see the Nina footprint with how the axis of snow is west based. On the flip side, at least we see snow every year, so that's something. I measured two inches, which was all from that clipper, surprisingly. Anyway, bring on the warmth and see y'all next season! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 Clinch Mountain, just south of Gate City, still has snow on the south facing slopes. Crazy. It is not warm today. That is for sure. The Euro Weeklies show a nice warm-up followed by more cold...then a back-and-forth pattern of ridge/trough ensues. I don't think we have seen the last of winter cold...but we are close to shutting the door on it. If you like warm springs, the MJO has not been our friend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 Meanwhile, guidance has been getting colder for tonight, such that MRX is now forecasting near record or even record lows in places! Hopefully this is the last really cold night for this winter. Looks like some places north of I-40 will drop into the teens tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 Well with winter behind us here is my summary. 4 events behind normal. 11" behind average of the last 4 winters. (2019-2023 average) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 8 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Well with winter behind us here is my summary. 4 events behind normal. 11" behind average of the last 4 winters. (2019-2023 average) Horrible winter,our only snow came when we had the record breaking cold in late Dec,that was only a dusting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Truly amazing it’s this cold in March. This is cold that should have been in January. Soccer tomorrow is going to be cold. Have the My Buddy heater ready to go with blankets. Just hope the wind tomorrow is not like today. Sun does help so clouds please stay away tomorrow. Mowed yard today in cold. Then actually mulched the trees. Gotta go slow with this long Covid. Wife helps with yard. Checked azaleas. They look to be ok with no damage yet. The Jap. maple what leaves had come out are toast. Tulips are good so far with no damage. Blooms still closed. Dogwood same no damage I can tell. Buds are still closed & look ok. Now tonight near 20 could do much damage. Hoping not. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Well it’s flurries here. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 I had to double check the thermometer this morning when I went out to run. It looked warm from inside the house. It was not, however, warm outside. I was about to freeze. I had no idea it was that cold. Wind chills at TRI are 19. Crossville and Wise have wind chills in the single digits. It is snowing in the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I had to double check the thermometer this morning when I went out to run. It looked warm from inside the house. It was not, however, warm outside. I was about to freeze. I had no idea it was that cold. Wind chills at TRI are 19. Crossville and Wise have wind chills in the single digits. It is snowing in the mountains. Yes very cold on this side of the mountains with lows in the teens and the single digits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Last thing I expected to see this morning was some light snow in Knoxville.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 Some snow here in Morgan county too this AM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Was in Sevier County this weekend and just drove home. Ran into a few flurries near Smokies Stadium, Merchants Drive and the Clinch River area on 75. Steady snow with some big flakes at 134 and points north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Flurries & soccer sounds about right for spring in TN. Wonder how many layers I can wear today. Lol. Well tulips are complete loss after last night. Azaleas I’m afraid to look. Tonight will be worse. Ugly spring incoming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 24 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Flurries & soccer sounds about right for spring in TN. Wonder how many layers I can wear today. Lol. Well tulips are complete loss after last night. Azaleas I’m afraid to look. Tonight will be worse. Ugly spring incoming. Same thing in Sumner county north of Nashville 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 21 this AM at the house with some flurries off and on earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 The map surprisingly is fairly on point for me. I measured 4 inches and pocket change for the season barring an end season dark horse, currently flurrying with a dusting fwiw I suppose. Could've been worse. On 3/17/2023 at 7:17 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: Seasonal snowfall to date. Check out that Eastman bubble around Kingsport. A zoomed out view: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Around 2200ft. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 After today, March's average temp will likely be colder than February's. It won't likely last, but that is pretty cool(literally). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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