March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

The map surprisingly is fairly on point for me.
I measured 4 inches and pocket change for the season barring an end season dark horse, currently flurrying with a dusting fwiw I suppose. Could've been worse.

 

Yeah, same here. 2.9" Total. So map looks pretty accurate. Least snowy on Record here. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Some cold as %^%$%#$ readings up here on the plateau on Wunderground this AM:

 

6 was the lowest I could find near Crossville

[Carvers Gap]

TRI's official temp average (so far) for March is 58.1.  February had an average of 59.1.   For now, we are a full degree below Feb's average.  Yesterday was a whopping 18 degrees below normal.  Our high was 38 degrees.  The warmth later this month should pull the average above February's.  Whether it stays there w/ one more wave of cold is questionable.   The GFS is hinting at yet another significant shot of cold air right at the end of the March.  I have yet to start my tomatoes.   No way they will go in the ground by late April.  I don't think I will be able to plant until mid-late May due to low soil temps.  That is a full 2-3 weeks late for me.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Some cold as %^%$%#$ readings up here on the plateau on Wunderground this AM:

 

6 was the lowest I could find near Crossville

I read where Mt Leconte dropped to 1 degree F.

[John1122]

14 here this morning. It was still 18 at 9:30 but it's warmed up to 25 in the last 20 minutes.

[Daniel Boone]

13 at my home. (Ele. 1732 ft). High yesterday was 30.

[Daniel Boone]

42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

TRI's official temp average (so far) for March is 58.1.  February had an average of 59.1.   For now, we are a full degree below Feb's average.  Yesterday was a whopping 18 degrees below normal.  Our high was 38 degrees.  The warmth later this month should pull the average above February's.  Whether it stays there w/ one more wave of cold is questionable.   The GFS is hinting at yet another significant shot of cold air right at the end of the March.  I have yet to start my tomatoes.   No way they will go in the ground by late April.  I don't think I will be able to plant until mid-late May due to low soil temps.  That is a full 2-3 weeks late for me.

I'm going to talk with KMRX about the Station at KTRI to see if they can go check it.. Pretty positive it's T readings are running too high. 

[Matthew70]

I read that the fruit trees are complete loss this year.  That’s going to hurt.  

[Jed33]

18 here at the house this AM. Hopefully like others said there is no more harsh cold, by that I mean below 20. However the GFS has been advertising another freeze like Carver said near the end of the month. Redbud trees must be incredibly resilient to cold temps. It doesn’t seem to have had any impact on their blooms. However, the pears and cherries turned brown last week and this finished them off I’m sure. Same with the cherries. I don’t know about the apples. Haven’t seen many of them blooming. Meanwhile, I continue to cover up my blueberries at night and hope tonight is the last time. It’s a lot of work to uncover during the day and recover at night!

[Jed33]

35 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I'm going to talk with KMRX about the Station at KTRI to see if they can go check it.. Pretty positive it's T readings are running too high. 

Might as well talk to them about their own station. The temperature seems fine, but if you’ll notice on their webpage they never record precipitation of any kind falling. The most you’ll see is mist. It could be a thunderstorm outside and it will show mist. It’s been that way for years.

[John1122]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I read that the fruit trees are complete loss this year.  That’s going to hurt.  

None of mine are bloomed or really active yet. I did notice it was greening from Knoxville to Sevier this weekend. Still looks like winter here. 

[BlunderStorm]

Yesterday I reached a high of 31 and by dawn today I had fell to a frigid 11. The perennial flowers already reeling from the past freezes in my yard are

[PowellVolz]

I read that the fruit trees are complete loss this year.  That’s going to hurt.  

My non fruiting cherry tree has already bloomed and was 75% green before the cold snap. Redbuds and Dogwoods are my biggest concern.


.

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Might as well talk to them about their own station. The temperature seems fine, but if you’ll notice on their webpage they never record precipitation of any kind falling. The most you’ll see is mist. It could be a thunderstorm outside and it will show mist. It’s been that way for years.

If you take a look at the MADIS and COOP station's around KTRI you can see a difference.   I spoke with the Chief Met at KMRX and he said it was about 3 degree's high . It is governed by the FAA and they allow a 4 degrees swing either side of actual with their Temp. Sensor's. NWS just uses FAA's Equipment. 

    So, there you have it. No just speculation on my part. 

    I agree in the precip reporting from some of the Official Station's. If it's Airports they're owned and governed by them unfortunately. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

If you take a look at the MADIS and COOP station's around KTRI you can see a difference.   I spoke with the Chief Met at KMRX and he said it was about 3 degree's high . It is governed by the FAA and they allow a 4 degrees swing either side of actual with their Temp. Sensor's. NWS just uses FAA's Equipment. 

    So, there you have it. No just speculation on my part. 

    I agree in the precip reporting from some of the Official Station's. If it's Airports they're owned and governed by them unfortunately. 

Well.   So basically those averages should be three degrees lower than what they are reporting?

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies Update:  Nice warm-up later this month.  Looks like another cool down right after the first of April...well, meaning it might get downright cold.  Again, this is the pits for trying to grow in the garden.  First week of May is frost free here....I bet we get frosts well into May w/ this crazy pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Might as well talk to them about their own station. The temperature seems fine, but if you’ll notice on their webpage they never record precipitation of any kind falling. The most you’ll see is mist. It could be a thunderstorm outside and it will show mist. It’s been that way for years.

They can just use spy balloon data as backup.  

[Jed33]

42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro Weeklies Update:  Nice warm-up later this month.  Looks like another cool down right after the first of April...well, meaning it might get downright cold.  Again, this is the pits for trying to grow in the garden.  First week of May is frost free here....I bet we get frosts well into May w/ this crazy pattern.

Say it ain’t so! Well I guess if we do we do. I’ve seen it frost as late as May 20 before, but that was a long time ago. Seems like more often than not after these late starts we turn off hot and dry too! That just adds more insult to injury on trying to get a garden going! I sure hope we don’t have a hot, dry summer this year.

[Daniel Boone]

57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Well.   So basically those averages should be three degrees lower than what they are reporting?

Yeah, sad. He also said the reason NWS didn't have their own Stations was funding. 

    Sad on all accounts. 

[Daniel Boone]

54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

They can just use spy balloon data as backup.  

Well, problem is it might get shot down 

[Jed33]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

If you take a look at the MADIS and COOP station's around KTRI you can see a difference.   I spoke with the Chief Met at KMRX and he said it was about 3 degree's high . It is governed by the FAA and they allow a 4 degrees swing either side of actual with their Temp. Sensor's. NWS just uses FAA's Equipment. 

    So, there you have it. No just speculation on my part. 

    I agree in the precip reporting from some of the Official Station's. If it's Airports they're owned and governed by them unfortunately. 

That makes sense then about the airport. In Morristown, where the office is, the airport is only maybe a half mile away, if that from the weather station. Also, the elevation is virtually the same.  So would be similar in the temp department. Unfortunately, what is probably going on with the precip is they have the sensor mounted on a deck or porch and it’s unable to record the precip bc it’s covered and blocking the sensor from reporting the correct readings. You would think the NWS would say something about it, but I guess they can’t really do anything if the airport isn’t interested in fixing it.

[Stovepipe]

I'm biased I guess because I'm contributing, and I know cheaper equipment is not always super reliable, but I'm quite fond of the Weather Underground network of stations.  I can get a pretty good idea of what's going on locally looking at the site.  I'll trust the crowd sourced data going forward before single official stations' observations when possible.  I do very much appreciate MRX and the Weather Service in general, don't get me wrong.

17 degrees yesterday morning here between the ridges in Halls.  Microclimates are always interesting.  

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm biased I guess because I'm contributing, and I know cheaper equipment is not always super reliable, but I'm quite fond of the Weather Underground network of stations.  I can get a pretty good idea of what's going on locally looking at the site.  I'll trust the crowd sourced data going forward before single official stations' observations when possible.  I do very much appreciate MRX and the Weather Service in general, don't get me wrong.

17 degrees yesterday morning here between the ridges in Halls.  Microclimates are always interesting.  

Yeah, for the most part they are accurate and many are high end Stations. I have 3 in the Network at various locations. 

[Daniel Boone]

11 hours ago, Jed33 said:

That makes sense then about the airport. In Morristown, where the office is, the airport is only maybe a half mile away, if that from the weather station. Also, the elevation is virtually the same.  So would be similar in the temp department. Unfortunately, what is probably going on with the precip is they have the sensor mounted on a deck or porch and it’s unable to record the precip bc it’s covered and blocking the sensor from reporting the correct readings. You would think the NWS would say something about it, but I guess they can’t really do anything if the airport isn’t interested in fixing it.

The NWS COOP Station's are owned and setup by them. You are correct in some of those not being set up to meet their "official guidelines". One example is the Pennington gap station. It's TH Sensor is about 12 Feet from a metal building (heat source). That is way off the 30 ft away structure guideline, let alone a metal structure.

     As far as the Airport problems, there are more than one. The Temp. FAA Guidelines we know are one, another is siting as well. The Lee County Airport ie is located fairly close to a Metal Hangar, thereby getting heat from it occasionally.

      It is no wonder our Model's have issues and our Climate Data isn't accurate, let alone some of the less than par Observer's at some Co-op Station's. 

[Carvers Gap]

Minus 1-2 more cold shots, I think we can finally see spring revealing itself in both the MJO and some LR modeling.  The CPC is going warm for April, and I welcome the change!  The 6-8 day and 8-14 day forecasts are now warm on the CPC sites.  I think we still see some sharp downturns, and I am not quite as bullish on the warmth....but it has to warm-up at some point, right?  Bring on spring...because summer lurks right around that corner.  Spring may be short this year!

[Reb]

On 3/20/2023 at 3:00 PM, PowellVolz said:

My non fruiting cherry tree has already bloomed and was 75% green before the cold snap. Redbuds and Dogwoods are my biggest concern.


.

I’ll ask the lawn expert. Am I good to aerate and overseed this weekend?

[Carvers Gap]

TRI so far for the month.

 

[Icy Hot]

11 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

TRI so far for the month.

 

So this weekend will put us solidly back to AN.

[Matthew70]

14 hours ago, Reb said:

I’ll ask the lawn expert. Am I good to aerate and overseed this weekend?

My yard is green.  Definitely the aerating & over seeding in fall paid off.  

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

So this weekend will put us solidly back to AN.

I think I mentioned that earlier in an post,  I certainly would think so by Friday afternoon even.  Record highs possible tomorrow and Friday.  Pretty amazing to see the first week’s(of March) departures erased though.  
 

I am placing the above departures in the thread for future reference.  Models have done exceptionally well so far.  They nailed the cold shot, and they also had a decent signal for the warm weather coming up.  Yesterday was also BN as well which is not reflected on the chart above.