Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 How did I miss this thread? lolz upon lolz reading this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Well that was fun while it lasted. Guess I still won't be using my snowblower this winter. Note: count me solidly in the skeptical camp. The 12z Euro & 18z GFS were great because of the 850mb firehose from the east-southeast. That has trended downhill since. Take note, folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Well that was fun while it lasted. Guess I still won't be using my snowblower this winter. I truly have no idea what you are talking about. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z eps looking good. Maybe a little north of 00z the lean looks a bit west and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There wasn’t really any trending to mundane to begin with outside of the euro finally deciding it was time to put down the bong. With that said, other models decided to join the cypher…they’re just not willing to take big gravity bong rips. But, we’re collectively still high and on the same page. dude I am baked out of my tits. 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Kuchie isn’t always higher. It varies with the situation. But those 35-40” amounts were a stretch. Lol i thought the map showing 35-40" was a total over the next 360 hrs., not just the next storm but what do I know, I am high AF 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Take note, folks. take note of what, exactly? one guy agreeing with your constant stream of meh? I'll pass 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 You know I should have held out for my official winter ‘23 melt. But, I work on a golf course and I was patrolling the track and came across the heard of Canadian geese that has tethered itself to the 7th and 8th green for the entire “winter” season. We all know the validity of this weather phenomenon. Pope for the win. However, this morning’s patrol yielded not one. It’s on!!!! LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Take note, folks. your new bestie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, mahk_webstah said: your new bestie? No. Just a met posting some valid concerns. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Well that was fun while it lasted. Guess I still won't be using my snowblower this winter. Note: count me solidly in the skeptical camp. The 12z Euro & 18z GFS were great because of the 850mb firehose from the east-southeast. That has trended downhill since. I'm a bit confused. Doesn't the Euro still put 10-12" on KASH for the Monday/Tuesday deal? Edit: GFS as well. And I do understand your met credentials and am wondering your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 tblizz has been fair today, everyone play nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Well that was fun while it lasted. Guess I still won't be using my snowblower this winter. Note: count me solidly in the skeptical camp. The 12z Euro & 18z GFS were great because of the 850mb firehose from the east-southeast. That has trended downhill since. Beer? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: You know I should have held out for my official winter ‘23 melt. But, I work on a golf course and I was patrolling the track and came across the heard of Canadian geese that has tethered itself to the 7th and 8th green for the entire “winter” season. We all know the validity of this weather phenomenon. Pope for the win. However, this morning’s patrol yielded not one. It’s on!!!! LOL The geese know what's coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: tblizz has been fair today, everyone play nice We talked about how everything could go right yesterday, nice to talk about the flip side. I still expect a decent storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Beer? Jack Daniels? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 As long as people are realistic about this storm, I think at the moment things look pretty good. You gotta let go of the HECS idea though if any of you are still thinking it’s likely…that isn’t happening unless that second shortwave speeds up today and we start seeing that phased solution again. But this can still be a major storm…things need to go right for that. At the moment, I’m just trying to get a minimal warning event in here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We talked about how everything could go right yesterday, nice to talk about the flip side. I still expect a decent storm. Agree!!!....I do not think there is anything wrong with discussing the pros and cons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: As long as people are realistic about this storm, I think at the moment things look pretty good. You gotta let go of the HECS idea though if any of you are still thinking it’s likely…that isn’t happening unless that second shortwave speeds up today and we start seeing that phased solution again. But this can still be a major storm…things need to go right for that. At the moment, I’m just trying to get a minimal warning event in here. Pretty much my thoughts exactly. I think many are currently in line for at least a decent event and should be cautiously optimistic. the big historic solutions disappeared as quickly as they showed up though, so if anyone took the cheese yesterday, they should probably readjust quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We talked about how everything could go right yesterday, nice to talk about the flip side. I still expect a decent storm. 6-12" is a fair mental range to keep right now until we are led in another direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Beer? for sure during the eames hall days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: 6-12" is a fair mental range to keep right now until we are led in another direction. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Beer? Too old for beer. Whiskey only. 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jack Daniels? Exactly! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 That's a sig block incoming, peaking right around this storm's closest approach. Strongest -NAO we have seen all season. Great for coastal SNE and Northern Mid Atlantic. Too much of a good thing for the northern folks, is my take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, subdude said: The geese know what's coming. I must live along their standard flight path because they come by in Mig formation all months of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 51 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I truly have no idea what you are talking about. Well for 1...I haven't used my snowblower this winter. 2. something about this modeled system isn't sitting right. It's a unique set-up as modeled. The primary LP tracks to Montreal while the secondary forms of ACY and never gains any latitude. Not saying that unique set-ups can't produce, I'm just saying that I'm currently expecting 6" strung out over like 24 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That's a sig block incoming, peaking right around this storm's closest approach. Strongest -NAO we have seen all season. Great for coastal SNE and Northern Mid Atlantic. Too much of a good thing for the northern folks, is my take. if the storm gets suppressed even further south the meltdowns will be epic. May need to call in a crisis mental health team if that happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Well for 1...I haven't used my snowblower this winter. 2. something about this modeled system isn't sitting right. It's a unique set-up as modeled. The primary LP tracks to Montreal while the secondary forms of ACY and never gains any latitude. Yea that's the bite of this for Pike North. I mean there's no curling (bending back) as it hits the Atlantic, the strength of the block increases greatly from that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Then why does the EPS mean have a bend north and west (this trended at 6Z). GEFS often go S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: if the storm gets suppressed even further south the meltdowns will be epic. May need to call in a crisis mental health team if that happens.. We'll see. I believe this one will spread the love, "so to speak". Hit the areas hardest who have seen the worst snowfall deficits. I strongly doubt a persistence outcome. The significant -NAO alone says this event is quite different than the recent past, at least going back to mid December. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Then why does the EPS mean have a bend north and west (this trended at 6Z). GEFS often go S and E. Your best bet is to hope the strength of the block and confluence is over modeled or it will be a nothing burger basically up here if thats what your looking for, I don't feel it for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That's a sig block incoming, peaking right around this storm's closest approach. Strongest -NAO we have seen all season. Great for coastal SNE and Northern Mid Atlantic. Too much of a good thing for the northern folks, is my take. 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That's a sig block incoming, peaking right around this storm's closest approach. Strongest -NAO we have seen all season. Great for coastal SNE and Northern Mid Atlantic. Too much of a good thing for the northern folks, is my take. Would that block allow the other shortwave to catch up and phase, or is that still unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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