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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From an IMBY standpoint, the last 12 hours of trends have sucked in two ways....more progressive...ie less intense and faster due to 50/50 AND further south.

It does look to progressive, There was a couple phase bomb runs that some fell for, Honestly, The block is squeezing this next one more in a ESE trajectory below SNE which is no good up here, To much confluence right now for my liking, Now if that's over modeled, Then it will change things some going forward, Better chance most in SNE will finally get a decent event to ward off futility.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It does look to progressive, There was a couple phase bomb runs that some fell for, Honestly, The block is squeezing this next one more in a ESE trajectory below SNE which is no good up here, To much confluence right now for my liking, Now if that's over modeled, Then it will change things some going forward, Better chance most in SNE will finally get a decent event to ward off futility.

I don't think anyone expected 40", but it's a testament to the ceiling here with this pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The battles here are funny. I will delightfully take a 6-10 event if that happens. Christ. 

I don’t see anyone battling. Just calling it like it is. I always thought folks should be cautious over the big euro run yesterday, which proved to be true by the next few runs and model suites.

I don’t think you’ll hear a single person complain if this ends up 6-10, which I think is likely. The 12+ stuff was always a pipe dream IMO, until you are very close in and have good consensus.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t see anyone battling. Just calling it like it is. I always thought folks should be cautious over the big euro run yesterday, which proved to be true by the next few runs and model suites.

I don’t think you’ll hear a single person complain if this ends up 6-10, which I think is likely. The 12+ stuff was always a pipe dream IMO, until you are very close in and have good consensus.

Over 12" is not a pipe dream. 30" is.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looked nice. May be some issues on coast and cape initially but a longer duration event. 

06z GEFs was an important improvement comparing the 00z prior -

It's more ominous and cleaner committed to a 2ndary, with several members in the mid 980s SE of ACK.  One errant hopeful is 972 near P-town.

You know ...should we get a consistent consensus here, we can start considering other interesting aspects ( which we will anyway, who am I kidding LOL ) ...

But, the antecedent air mass being cold as Will's pointed out, and high situated N-NE of Maine ..stalled and pinned by -NAO, OES may kick off.  It looks like a straight W fetch, but doing so with air that has not actually sat over the water so long that it's been hugely moderated.  Also, this whole approach and pivot takes time, so the event finds a way of imposing a longer duration that way.  Just some early thoughts on how to get greedy hahaha..  seriously tho

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

06z GEFs was an important improvement comparing the 00z prior -

It's more ominous and cleaner committed to a 2ndary, with several members in the mid 980s SE of ACK.  One errant hopeful is 972 near P-town.

You know ...should we get a consistent consensus here, we can start considering other interesting aspects ( which we will anyway, who am I kidding LOL ) ...

But, the antecedent air mass being cold as Will's pointed out, and high situated N-NE of Maine ..stalled and pinned by -NAO, that OES may kick off.  It looks like a straight W fetch, but doing so with air that has not actually sat over the water so long that it's been hugely moderates.  Also, this whole approach and pivot takes time, so the event finds a way of longer duration that way.  Just some early thoughts on how to get greedy hahaha..  seriously tho

I'm hoping for some oes

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take anything.

Long duration is always higher stakes to me because of the dichotomous nature in which I perceive it..its either a stalled tempest, or one of those protracted ordeal that Kevin loves that breed debates about measuring technique...to swipe and clear or not to swipe and clear lol

Like 9" over 3 days, never more than 1/2" per hour or 7" depth

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You can see the better board vibes with an impending snower after months of arguing, melting, fighting, geese killing…just happier weenies finally. We’ll need this to hold now though or it could be armageddon. 

Eh...we always have the draft to fall back on lol

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You can feel the better board vibes with an impending snower after months of arguing, melting, fighting, geese killing…just happier weenies finally. We’ll need this to hold now though or it could be armageddon. 

It does feel like there’s some real hope on the board for the first time in a while.

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3 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Looks like the east leaning members converged back to the west. Going to introduce p-type issues near the coast if that holds. 

I am in SW CT so my biggest fear.

I would be happy with a sloppy 1 to 3. Just hope this does not trend where my area is all rain.

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3 minutes ago, subdude said:

I'll be shocked if this verifies but local mets did mention a  possibility of a plowable event. This is 4-5days out so that's promising. Part of me still thinks we'll get our reg 1-3" / 2-4" out of this like it's been all season. 

I think plowable is more probable than not.   

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