dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Better front end down here. Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Valleys always seem to get bent over a bit I punted winter in December so it’s really whatever, but if it’s going to snow I want to maximize potential. Regardless, tomorrow will be beautiful and I never take that for granted. I love the last minute trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 That's a great hit for CT. Probably widespread 6-8 there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro last to the party for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Euro last to the party for this one. Shows up when the keg is kicked. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Better front end down here. Yeesh, that's a brutal job by the Euro...look at how different 00z run was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Shows up when the keg is kicked. Lol. It sends the invite for the party but then doesn’t show up until the keg is kicked. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yessh, that's a brutal job by the Euro...look at how different 00z run was Not good at all. In any case, I hope that stuff keeps ticking NE. Gonna need it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro going to bump up qpf too like the other 12z guidance. wild speculation here... perhaps we should bear these late corrections in mind as we head then toward the 4th. I undersand the idea of past performance blah blah present handling - but I've always found that argument rather dubiously divisive in the sense that it omits a very important conceptual aspect that in unfortunately still true: two events of similar handling, inside a the same governing pattern, will tend to verify with comparable behavior. So, any modeling errors in handling the predecessor ... at least has justifiable suspicion for repeating. That's just logic. I mean, not that the 4th really needs more QPF. jesus. But I'm also seeing a tendency to cool the during-event column a little here as we approach this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Its performance has been less then stellar this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 We take and run with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: wild speculation here... perhaps we should bear these late corrections in mind as we head then toward the 4th. I undersand the idea of past performance blah blah present handling - but I've always found that argument rather dubiously divisive in the sense that it omits a very important conceptual aspect that still true: two events of similar handling, in a similar pattern, will tend to verify with comparable behavior. So, any modeling errors in handling that ... at least has justifiable suspicion for repeating. That's just logic. I mean, not that the 4th really needs more QPF. jesus. But I'm also seeing a tendency to cool the during-event column a little here as we approach this. Not that you guys care about the 2nd, But that's the next one here before the 4th so that's the one i'm onto now to see if we tick that colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeesh, that's a brutal job by the Euro...look at how different 00z run was Know what's gonna happen? this thing is going to 15 inch much of the area out of nowhere, and the Euro's 18z run today will nail it... while all the other models are still struggling for 8s watch LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro going to bump up qpf a couple tics too like the other 12z guidance. EURO really ramped up for CT , after it sniffed out the southward trend first, it's really been owned by the GFS in regards to precip output for this event , considering a cave 12-18 hours out.. Much better for the rest of SNE New England as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not good at all. In any case, I hope that stuff keeps ticking NE. Gonna need it here. Its helping up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We take and run with the 12z suite. I might actually get warning snows out of this now...I was bracing for 3" 24 hours ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a great hit for CT. Probably widespread 6-8 there. looks great widespread .7" qpf from the thump.. If we can get 12-13:1 ratios then its party on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: EURO really ramped up for CT , after it sniffed out the southward trend first, it's really been owned by the GFS in regards to precip output for this event , considering a cave 12-18 hours out.. Much better for the rest of SNE New England as well.. Its much better all around actually, These NE ticks are good up here too, 12z guidance is now getting us into low end warning area here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Not that you guys care about the 2nd, But that's the next one here before the 4th so that's the one i'm onto now to see if we tick that colder. Oh I do.. In fact Will and I talked about that "little ignored critter" like... gosh 5 days ago. But we were musing how sometimes sandwiched in between bigger payload events, some little innocuous 'engine that could' suddenly steals some lime-light. I'm pretty sold on that not being the case down here, but y'all up there could easily cash-in on a short period burst from that. Altho I admit to not honestly looking at it just recently day - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I might actually get warning snows out of this now...I was bracing for 3" 24 hours ago. Good, it's much better when we have you guys out east in the party.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Know what's gonna happen? this thing is going to 15" inch much of the area out of nowhere, and the Euro's 18z run today will nail it... while all the other models are still struggling for 8s watch LOL http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1997/us1223.php (btw, that reference never gets old, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh I do.. In fact Will and I talked about that "little ignored critter" like... gosh 5 days ago. But we were musing how sometimes sandwiched in between bigger payload events, some little innocuous 'engine that could' suddenly steals some lime-light. I'm pretty sold on that not being the case down here, but y'all up there could easily cash-in on a short period burst from that. Altho I admit to not honestly looking at it just recently day - Yeah, I do think that one plays a roll too for the 4th, Track wise anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a great hit for CT. Probably widespread 6-8 there. Music to my ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1997/us1223.php (btw, that reference never gets old, lol) HO man... hahaha... 'Magine if that happened? 10 -20" followed by 3r/4th. Here's the deal. I'm at 24.5" on the season. If I were get 7" (may be a stretch ...feel better about that much down by you) ...I'm over 30. 4" of Advisory on the 2nd is say 35" ... uh oh! Don't look now but the GFS is too far NW and we get 17" out of the 4th and we're staring down the barrel of a -EPO mid March with a relaxing NAO ... hm Above average seasonal snow fall would just be some incredibly delicious frosting, icing over a particularly rancid dogshit cake of a season. HAHAHA And it's not like that pattern canvas looks anything like this ...what? with a negative anomaly tucked SW like that. heh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I do think that one plays a roll too for the 4th, Track wise anyways. Helping advect in some cold would be a help for winter enthusiasts, yup - if that were to be that much more evolved as it's exiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shows up when the keg is kicked. Then gets its ass kicked by the drunken guest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Good, it's much better when we have you guys out east in the party.. We are SNEATT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 EURO the first model to show snow in the NYC/LI area. GFS was all rain for many runs...so at least down here models trended towards the EURO, which hasnt changed much for 24 hours for the NMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We are SNEATT. ACTATT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: ACTATT ASCATT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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