weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Title of this thread should be changed to Feb 27-28th... it will be over before the 1st There may still be some high clouds leftover across eastern sections 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Title of this thread should be changed to Feb 27-28th... it will be over before the 1st Yeah...these progressive pattern embedded systems seem to do that a lot. They end up a day or so earlier than when they were originally picked up by the models, back when D10s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Stop your worrying now. 6-8” per the NWS. It’s gonna be a good event for you. These meso’s are gonna jump around like they always do. 6”, 8” 7”…etc etc… at this point it’s game on for CT…and WOR is in a good spot. It’s been consistent for a good 2-3 days now with 5-8”. Now just enjoy. I know, it's just become instinctive to expect lower than forecasted numbers since we have almost always underperformed in recent years. Hopefully that streak starts now and heads into next winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 It would've been a decent storm here if the E winds didn't kill us with the BL after 8am. 2-3" should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 it's like we need sub-sub-sub forums ... One for Rt 2. One for the Pike west of ORH. One for ORH... one for Boston. One for Methuen... One for southern NH... cuz I keep getting confused why impressions over events are so shitty(glorious) ... then having to have it eventually dawn on me that the last 20 posts were actually from some cluster of shit-outta-luck (charmed) individuals hailing from some focused area ... haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's like we need sub-sub-sub forums ... One for Rt 2. One for the Pike west of ORH. One for ORH... one for Boston. One for Methuen... One for southern NH... cuz I keep getting confused why impressions over events are so shitty(glorious) ... then having to have it eventually dawn on me that the last 20 posts were actually from some cluster of shit-out-a-luck (charmed) individuals of a focused area ... haha. It's always sunny in Methuen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's like we need sub-sub-sub forums ... One for Rt 2. One for the Pike west of ORH. One for ORH... one for Boston. One for Methuen... One for southern NH... cuz I keep getting confused why impressions over events are so shitty(glorious) ... then having to have it eventually dawn on me that the last 20 posts were actually from some cluster of shit-out-a-luck (charmed) individuals hailing from some focused area ... haha. I try to be helpful when bitching about a storm by employing the term 'here'. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I try to be helpful when bitching about a storm by employing the term 'here'. okay ... good work! But it doesn't help me, nor the the attempt at implied effacing humor of my pointing out my own folly in reading ... knowing you're so helpful, does it . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 What a fascinating storm system north of CT/RI and east of PVD/ORH (so basically AEMATT) in that for AEMATT we're basically waiting for OES. Precip doesn't really start cranking over here until the onshore breeze ushers enough moisture in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 27, 2023 Author Share Posted February 27, 2023 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's like we need sub-sub-sub forums ... One for Rt 2. One for the Pike west of ORH. One for ORH... one for Boston. One for Methuen... One for southern NH... cuz I keep getting confused why impressions over events are so shitty(glorious) ... then having to have it eventually dawn on me that the last 20 posts were actually from some cluster of shit-outta-luck (charmed) individuals hailing from some focused area ... haha. Yeah, there is a lot of variation in climo even within New England. It’s kind of cool how I can drive even 20-30 minutes NW and go from 8 inches to nearly 2 feet of snow. Hasn’t really happened this winter, but it’s a fairly common occurrence. A good trend for one area leads to other areas getting screwed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS def bumped up a bit in eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: Yeah, there is a lot of variation in climo even within New England. It’s kind of cool how I can drive even 20-30 minutes NW and go from 8 inches to nearly 2 feet of snow. Hasn’t really happened this winter, but it’s a fairly common occurrence. A good trend for one area leads to other areas getting screwed. It was fun when I went to school at WestConn and being on the Westside Campus during mix events. At the top of the hill where housing was we would be getting snow (and accumulating snow) and you could walk down the hill and just see the transition happen in front of your eyes. There was one event it was almost like the line was drawn out between accumulation and non-accumulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6z right around BDL...pretty solid. Start to get dry air seeping into the DGZ by 9z though. But it's pretty juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 We good to go…gonna be a nice event for a lot of folks…6-8” is a good storm no matter what winter, but for this one it’s a major grab imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS def bumped up a bit in eastern areas Best run for all of SNE in a while. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Deep down some in here are still butt hurt about that 12-20"+ euro run............ 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS def bumped up a bit in eastern areas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just ready for the flakes to start falling at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Deep down some in here are still butt hurt about that 12-20"+ euro run............ We'll take high-end advisory - Farmington most likely is 6". Forecast is 4-8" where I grew up in NNJ, which would quintuple season snowfall there, but zero for the grandkids in SNJ - both storm and season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Deep down some in here are still butt hurt about that 12-20"+ euro run............ This is why those things are just ridiculous. I'll admit, they have value in the short-term (as in <24-hours) and can be useful with picking up local maxima's/minima's and gradients, but anything beyond this term...it's just ridiculous, especially in medium-range. All they do is elicit merely unrealistic expectations and the hype train leaves the station and then eventually derails when reality sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is why those things are just ridiculous. I'll admit, they have value in the short-term (as in <24-hours) and can be useful with picking up local maxima's/minima's and gradients, but anything beyond this term...it's just ridiculous, especially in medium-range. All they do is elicit merely unrealistic expectations and the hype train leaves the station and then eventually derails when reality sets in. This year, Most of these storms have de amplified in the mid term or became rainers due to lack of cold nearby in Canada, So that's the card you need to play until you get inside 48 hrs, I will say though, Once there has been a legit threat, They have seemed to bump up qpf wise as well as ticking north, You will find the late week storm doing the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: This year, Most of these storms have de amplified in the mid term or became rainers due to lack of cold nearby in Canada, So that's the card you need to play until you get inside 48 hrs, I will say though, Once there has been a legit threat, They have seemed to bump up qpf wise as well as ticking north, You will find the late week storm doing the same. Yup...that has been the consensus pattern we've been in which has continued to favor de-amplifying systems and cutter types with weakening QPF just due to decaying dynamics. It is a pleasure to see QPF increasing this close out and this is a big thanks to some increasing dynamics as the storm sort of re-evolves (so to speak). I am still a bit nervous about this though, especially with the signals of this being more convective in nature (as clarification speaking regarding Connecticut, obviously there are processes which occur further east which compensate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Yup...that has been the consensus pattern we've been in which has continued to favor de-amplifying systems and cutter types with weakening QPF just due to decaying dynamics. It is a pleasure to see QPF increasing this close out and this is a big thanks to some increasing dynamics as the storm sort of re-evolves (so to speak). I am still a bit nervous about this though, especially with the signals of this being more convective in nature (as clarification speaking regarding Connecticut, obviously there are processes which occur further east which compensate). Yeah, I hate seeing convective processes arise in these types as from my experiences they hurt more then help over a more broader area, It kind of limits accumulation for some as they get robbed of qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is why those things are just ridiculous. I'll admit, they have value in the short-term (as in <24-hours) and can be useful with picking up local maxima's/minima's and gradients, but anything beyond this term...it's just ridiculous, especially in medium-range. All they do is elicit merely unrealistic expectations and the hype train leaves the station and then eventually derails when reality sets in. One of the best posts ever on AMWX.....the bolded is especially true! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 19 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: This is such a welcomed sight. We look to be locked in. Kids are fired up. So is Dad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I hate seeing convective processes arise in these types as from my experiences they hurt more then help over a more broader area, It kind of limits accumulation for some as they get robbed of qpf. Yup...problem too is you really can't incorporate those type of processes into a forecast map. I guess the best thing you can do is hedge more towards the conservative side and then stress there is potential for some localized higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, KTBFFH1905 said: This is such a welcomed sight. We look to be locked in. Kids are fired up. So is Dad. We're looking forward to this one in our hood! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS def bumped up a bit in eastern areas Oh... I've thought that was too cute all along, frankly. I mean it may certainly go down that way, but I don't think the models are that good. I bet if it's snowing heavy in Templeton, it's snowing heavy in Ayer given these synoptic parameters. ...just not something I'm inclined to mention. Some storms, yeah...obviously It seems the model physics are having like ( this is gonna sound wacko) "grid scale negative feedback" ..there is a blocking exertion, but the models are over assessing it at the boundary of their grid. Thats "might" be why the meso models have more snow over eastern areas in general, because their not doing that at those finite scales as much. Dorks like me think about shit like that. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS def bumped up a bit in eastern areas What's your feeling on if whatever falls washes away on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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