Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,603
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM with a good fronto band from western MA-nrn CT to about KTAN. That area does well verbatim.

The SWCT minimum starting to show up as we get closer to gametime, not saying it is correct, as the 6z Euro looked great around here. But this season's way of finding ways to produce little to no snow around here is quite impressive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM with a good fronto band from western MA-nrn CT to about KTAN. That area does well verbatim.

Good look on the IVT too....really on the 3k it shows it even better...esp for spots than can stay at or just below freezing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The SWCT minimum starting to show up as we get closer to gametime, not saying it is correct, as the 6z Euro looked great around here. But this season's way of finding ways to produce little to no snow around here is quite impressive.

It's a very banded and convective system right now. I'm not surprised we are seeing some struggles. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The SWCT minimum starting to show up as we get closer to gametime, not saying it is correct, as the 6z Euro looked great around here. But this season's way of finding ways to produce little to no snow around here is quite impressive.

Stop your worrying now. 6-8” per the NWS.  It’s gonna be a good event for you.  These meso’s are gonna jump around like they always do. 6”, 8” 7”…etc etc… at this point it’s game on for CT…and WOR is in a good spot. It’s been consistent for a good 2-3 days now with 5-8”.  Now just enjoy. 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good look on the IVT too....really on the 3k it shows it even better...esp for spots than can stay at or just below freezing.

Yeah, close to all snow even at BOS, albeit temps might get borderline. But the temp profile is fairly cold through the column. Maybe if it's 33 and coming down decently, it will stick a bit better with those "cold fluffy" type flakes traveling through a borderline lower 600' or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a very banded and convective system right now. I'm not surprised we are seeing some struggles. 

This is what really worries me.

I'm envisioning a precip shield which is predominately light snow with poor ratios and snow growth with only embedded areas of enhanced lift where you'll have better rates/ratios. These systems with these convective looks have a way of screwing things up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, close to all snow even at BOS, albeit temps might get borderline. But the temp profile is fairly cold through the column. Maybe if it's 33 and coming down decently, it will stick a bit better with those "cold fluffy" type flakes traveling through a borderline lower 600' or so.

Here's the sounding for MBY on the 3k at 12 noon tomorrow....great look at how cold it is in the 900-950mb layer there.

 

image.png.49a566a9cc5e88c252a841f4251cf894.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Stop your worrying now. 6-8” per the NWS.  It’s gonna be a good event for you.  These meso’s are gonna jump around like they always do. 6”, 8” 7”…etc etc… at this point it’s game on for CT…and WOR is in a good spot. It’s been consistent for a good 2-3 days now with 5-8”.  Now just enjoy. 

Exactly.

We locked. We snow.

Let’s get it on.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In any case, we shouldn't ( imho ) impugn the Euro at all on this system.

If may end up on the low end of the results ... but, it was the first to pump the breaks on a full bird Miller B bomb ... entering us into the last 4 days of consistent consternation.   It wins for that alone.  At least gets an honorable mention.  That's not a failure really, when the other guidance also started showing similar hesitations and limitations... even though they are conserving more QPF after having conceded to what the Euro showed first.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Imagine that. It’s the weather. Minute details matter immensely during a marginal event.


.

nyeaaah...it's not that virtuous.   There's an ah-seeking affect there.  No one in here is racing to make an accuracy report for their livelihood. 

You're right about the marginal aspect - but that's also evading there's some other fulfillment thing we do in this 'hobby'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I'd argue they have been consistent for Litchfield and CT west of Hartford 

Looking outside the snow maps there have been some inconsistencies and certainly some flags. Why I remained with 3-6'' statewide instead of going anything higher. Where the best llvl fronto band and heaviest rates occur there may be some 6-7'' totals. But this all seems rather fast to me for those higher amounts to be widespread. 

You can see on the sim reflectivity's on many guidance that after the initial push of lift big issues start to occur. Even if we see lighter snows well into Tuesday morning or early afternoon I don't see it really accumulating to much (have to go northeast into Mass for that).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...