NotSureWeather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's a mean of 51 members...getting that to reflect several inches at this lead time is no small feat. Strong consensus for a significant event. That makes sense. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Childude645 said: Cool, born & raised. I hope the temps can stay low for some decent accumulation. . A new dead head for the forum. Excellent 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle Love to see it! Now, will this hold? It's fun to finally just have something besides scraps to track... now off to scrape the ice off the truck and get to work 31° and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Love to see it! Now, will this hold? It's fun to finally just have something besides scraps to track... now off to scrape the ice off the truck and get to work 31° and freezing rain I’ll start getting invested if tonight’s 0z runs are still holding serve. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Touch south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Love to see it! Now, will this hold? It's fun to finally just have something besides scraps to track... now off to scrape the ice off the truck and get to work 31° and freezing rain I think you're in a great spot. I would say if we get to 00z and we're in around the same spot, there's going to be a storm. let's get through today and see what happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Nice coastal in early March on gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I’ll take it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’ll start getting invested if tonight’s 0z runs are still holding serve. Yeah I'm definitely not all in like the person who started the thread and won't be for another day or so however it does look more promising than anything we've had in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll take it Yup. George shot his blizzard hecs load prematurely but a foot will suffice and feel like a hecs this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Can’t argue with this current guidance consensus inside 5 days. Best SECS chance for sub-forum this season, by far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Funny but euro still has that trailing sw close enough to capture a norlun for EMATT on 3/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 If this isn't a HECS, there's another chance according to the 6z GFS a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Seems like a strong move away from a big solution on all overnight guidance. Nothing wrong with 6-10”. Could be a nice forum wide event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Noyes mentioned snow could go rain with that one Monday night.. at least along coast he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Noyes mentioned snow could go rain with that one Monday night.. at least along coast he said With the move to a more mundane solution, I think that is on the table, at least for the immediate coastline. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Noyes mentioned snow could go rain with that one Monday night.. at least along coast he said I don't see that unless things shift north. Not sure what he's looking at verbatim that shows snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Good news is the strong -NAO block is real. The bad news is there is little arctic interaction and therefore we’ve seen a dampening in the solutions with time, due to the combination of these factors. The balance of this is certainly net positive for snow-starved SNE. Highest confidence that the axis of heaviest snowfall is in SNE, and increases as you move closer to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Touch south Your first real event!? Maybe more after too. A little stretch of winter to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Your first real event!? Maybe more after too. A little stretch of winter to enjoy. Saturday will be my first real event if I get snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Now this ...finally looks like a pattern that can work for those snow starved in S SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Seems like a strong move away from a big solution on all overnight guidance. Nothing wrong with 6-10”. Could be a nice forum wide event Could be but these things sometimes come back. The pattern will bring more chances after though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I don't see that unless things shift north. Not sure what he's looking at verbatim that shows snow to rain It’s just the usual cautionary bologny, they always throw it in there at 4 plus days out, keeps em safe, especially if you live on/near the water, and in a rat like this has been. Last night our locals were saying that here for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 My *current* take on heavy snow probs. SNE > N Mid Atlantic > NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Wpc map still looks good with qpf 1”+ most alll of New England Monday night Tuesday. We are 4.5 days from go time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: My *current* take on heavy snow probs. SNE > N Mid Atlantic > NNE I’d go SNE/CNE>NNE>NMidAtl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: With the move to a more mundane solution, I think that is on the table, at least for the immediate coastline. You are overreacting a bit to individual model runs. We need to be looking for trends. It's just one run. If you see it again at noon, that's a trend toward a mundane solution. 6-10" is still a very good storm in this season. Right on the cusp of major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: You are overreacting a bit to individual model runs. We need to be looking for trends. It's just one run. If you see it again at noon, that's a trend toward a mundane solution. C’mon,,, you know him, if it backs of a millimeter, he’s mehing. Take it for what it’s worth(not much). A day ago he was saying nothing was gonna happen. Ita a great strong signal. And we’d all be giddy with 10-12”. I mean we’ve had pretty much nothing all winter. This is great right as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: C’mon,,, you know him, if it backs of a millimeter, he’s mehing. Take it for what it’s worth(not much). A day ago he was saying nothing was gonna happen. Ita a great strong signal. And we’d all be giddy with 10-12”. I mean we’ve had pretty much nothing all winter. This is great right as it is. I think it will be helpful if we explain where we are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now