Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam definitely came back down to earth but surprisingly more uniform. 3km nam says F U southern CT.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 3km nam says F U southern CT.. Hope its just a bad outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What level winds in atmosphere caused the de amplification of this formerly respectable (modeled) low pressure Since you asked 500 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ahh gotcha. If I'm understanding correctly would be 500mb. You can see the main shortwave as it ejects through the Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley it just gets shredded apart. The spawning secondary low helps to blossom some precipitation but the shield just gets eroded away quickly. Overall, the degree of lift actually looks pretty meh outside of the initial WAA push. Even seems to be quite a bit of subsidence...almost like shortwave subsidence in a way with the initial shortwave energy passing east and approaching shortwave from the west (which even seems to help generate light stuff through the morning). Thanks Paulie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 3km nam says F U southern CT.. the whole thing is banded. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I never hang my hat on the HRRR it was overzealous on many events last month here, But carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What level winds in atmosphere caused the de amplification of this formerly respectable (modeled) low pressure 500. This was a huge issue raised last week but here is the 0z NAM 500mb winds looking at hour 3. See how the jet streak is already rounding the base of the shortwave trough? That is an indication the system overall is at peak maturity and will begin to de-amplify. The fast flow doesn't offer much room or support for additional amplification either. The whole system just craps out quickly. I'm just going to stick 3-6'' statewide. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: the whole thing is banded. Weird. Not shredded out your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Best 3k run yet for SNH. Still not really feeling those totals, but well see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: the whole thing is banded. Weird. even seems kind of convective like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: the whole thing is banded. Weird. East and se inflow. Everyone knows the rules. Gonna be some subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Any chance of NorLun band with this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: East and se inflow. Everyone knows the rules. Gonna be some subsidence The stuff during the day will be tough here unless it comes down hard. Probably elevation or in a place like srn NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Nice qpf bump on the Nams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The stuff during the day will be tough here unless it comes down hard. Probably elevation or in a place like srn NH. It's frigging cold at 925 until the light stuff comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Nice qpf bump on the Nams. Showed up big time on the FOUS for Logon. .8” liq equiv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Anyone remember the 12/10/97 event? It was a bust Boston. We ended up with about 6" of paste in SW CT when we were supposed to get rain. I'm kind of reminded of that event from the surface map even though 500mb doesn't really look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS coming in warmer @ hr 108. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I can't imagine it successfully actually accumulating down here. Temps well above freezing, mediocre rates, and some of it midday? Then the switch to rain. It'll be a snow cone. Beats nothing, but keeps the sled in the basement. Just a couple footnotes coming for a winter that almost wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: GFS coming in warmer @ hr 108. nah, gfs improved. There’s a thread for it though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 HREF weenie run at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 0z HREF... wish it were reliable Really keeps the stuff in eSNE going most of Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 0z HREF... wish it were reliable Really keeps the stuff in eSNE going most of Tuesday Wow that is a pretty good run from HREF. I think it was a couple winters ago it did really well. During some of those February storms. Seems like most runs are coming in a bit more uniform tonight. Best is still CT to W MA but we’re getting a little more QPF thrown to us out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro looks unimpressive. About 2" in Boston and along the coast fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow that is a pretty good run from HREF. I think it was a couple winters ago it did really well. During some of those February storms. Seems like most runs are coming in a bit more uniform tonight. Best is still CT to W MA but we’re getting a little more QPF thrown to us out east. Let's hope it's on to something. It's the most robust at the moment. My guess is the higher 4-8" totals east rely on some northern stream infusion after ~15z Tuesday... you can see rates pulse back up for a few hours at the end. Unfortunately we'll be struggling with temps then too. We're scrapping for crumbs this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
203whiteout Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: HRRR looks pretty damn cold too, not a threat of mixing even close to CT and surface temps look to be in the upper 20s for most of the event can you post images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Upgraded to a winter storm warning for much of western CT. Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA- Northern Worcester MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA- Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA- Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI- Eastern Kent RI-Washington RI- Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, Ayer, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Narragansett, and Westerly 317 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern and western Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult Monday night. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning commute. Rising temperatures and lighter snow will result in road conditions slowly improving Tuesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow overspreads Connecticut and western- central Massachusetts between 7 pm and 10 pm, then 10 pm to 1 am across Rhode Island. The heaviest snow and lowest visibility occurs from late Monday evening into the overnight. Snow continues to accumulate Tues day, but at a lighter intensity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6z NAM 0z EURO 6z HRRR 0z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6z NAM 3k will raise some eyebrows for those in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 And here is your morning run of the 6z GFS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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