weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 This is pretty sweet looking http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t18z/nam.ne.frontb34.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: This is pretty sweet looking http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t18z/nam.ne.frontb34.png Yeppers and so does this @CT Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I agree. Weenie snow maps. I see shredderola with hit or miss totals. Lol this isn't true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 One thing I think that will happen which is kind of impossible to incorporate into forecast maps is there will likely be some embedded subsidence zones. SREF plumes and bufkit (12z) though was solid 5-8'' statewide and 3-5'' along the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: One thing I think that will happen which is kind of impossible to incorporate into forecast maps is there will likely be some embedded subsidence zones. SREF plumes and bufkit (12z) though was solid 5-8'' statewide and 3-5'' along the shoreline. Well I can tell you where one will be. Right over my valley floor head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol this isn't true. Out his way maybe..not here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Out his way maybe..not here. The risk is definitely to the lower side with this. It’s hitting a grinder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol this isn't true. Disagree for area I am referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Hills in SW CT should be nice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 0z HRRR looks like pound city from northern NJ into western (southwestern) CT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 hmm this actually is a bit more complicated. Looking at 0z HRRR then going back to the 18z guidance, there could be a maximum from northern NJ across southeast NY and...the the western shoreline of Connecticut and maybe as much as 6-10''. Totals could then drop off quickly say eastern Connecticut (east of the River) so something more along the line of 3-6'' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Looking forward to see how the 0z HREF looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Disagree for area I am referring to. Since you didn't refer to any area... but I always need to remember you are one of the AEMATT crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 No change for CT but we did add some text for NW CT to highlight the potential for the highest amounts and possibly 8" or more locally. For The tri-state i brought the ranges south a bit to include LI and northern NYC for 2-4, then 1-2/0-1 south of there and in the southern city. Looking at bufkit the DGZ looks pretty high up and quite narrow with modest lift, so snow growth doesnt look to be the best. The uvv does look to be somewhat centered in the DGZ, so its not horrible like some storms weve see. 12Z runs were showing close to 10:1 at the shore and 12-13 well inland, so about average. I'm pretty much using just 10:1 everywhere. With these systems approaching from the W with an easterly flow and warming mid levels we usually don't have have the best ratios but that may be offset by some heavy rates near the snow/mix or snow/rain line near the shore. I'm definitely worried a bit about NYC/LI/NNJ area, that area has the highest uncertainty and could bust either way. High confidence for all of CT at the moment. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 0z HRRR looks like pound city from northern NJ into western (southwestern) CT I prefer to call it pound town . Hrrr looks sweet! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: I prefer to call it pound town . Hrrr looks sweet! I'm starting to think the jackpot zone in this will be across southern Connecticut. It kind of makes sense based on where guidance is developing/tracking the secondary low. You can see the precip shield starting to fall apart pretty quickly towards eastern CT. Best lift traverses southwest/coastal Connecticut and thermal profile supports all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Interior SW CT in the hilly terrain will certainly...see more snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm starting to think the jackpot zone in this will be across southern Connecticut. It kind of makes sense based on where guidance is developing/tracking the secondary low. You can see the precip shield starting to fall apart pretty quickly towards eastern CT. Best lift traverses southwest/coastal Connecticut and thermal profile supports all snow. Not on the Nams. Hrrr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 HRRR looks pretty damn cold too, not a threat of mixing even close to CT and surface temps look to be in the upper 20s for most of the event 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: No change for CT but we did add some text for NW CT to highlight the potential for the highest amounts and possibly 8" or more locally. For The tri-state i brought the ranges south a bit to include LI and northern NYC for 2-4, then 1-2/0-1 south of there and in the southern city. Looking at bufkit the DGZ looks pretty high up and quite narrow with modest lift, so snow growth doesnt look to be the best. The uvv does look to be somewhat centered in the DGZ, so its not horrible like some storms weve see. 12Z runs were showing close to 10:1 at the shore and 12-13 well inland, so about average. I'm pretty much using just 10:1 everywhere. With these systems approaching from the W with an easterly flow and warming mid levels we usually don't have have the best ratios but that may be offset by some heavy rates near the snow/mix or snow/rain line near the shore. I'm definitely worried a bit about NYC/LI/NNJ area, that area has the highest uncertainty and could bust either way. High confidence for all of CT at the moment. Wouldn't have it any other way that NYC is near the line between an impressive and practically no snow event. Your map looks good and I agree about that 1-2" notch you made into southern NYC. I'm hoping to make it to 4" IMBY. Anymore than that would be a big win. HRRR looked awesome though, hopefully that's close to reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Interior SW CT in the hilly terrain will certainly...see more snow. I “sey” what you did there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not on the Nams. Hrrr? IDK...even looking back at the 18z NAMs I think the idea makes sense. The secondary is awfully far south and I guess it's a question of how far north the strongest fronto can get. also, it seems like the northern edge of the precip shield gets chewed away pretty quickly. Ton of dry air up at 500 and have to wonder if that is quickly seeping downward. I'm thinking like 5-8'' for SW CT and along the shoreline to about the River with 3-5'' from northern Litchfield county elsewhere. I'll post map in a bit to illustrate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: IDK...even looking back at the 18z NAMs I think the idea makes sense. The secondary is awfully far south and I guess it's a question of how far north the strongest fronto can get. also, it seems like the northern edge of the precip shield gets chewed away pretty quickly. Ton of dry air up at 500 and have to wonder if that is quickly seeping downward. I'm thinking like 5-8'' for SW CT and along the shoreline to about the River with 3-5'' from northern Litchfield county elsewhere. I'll post map in a bit to illustrate. Wide variety of solutions depending on the model synoptics you are using to base your assumptions on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Wide variety of solutions depending on the model synoptics you are using to base your assumptions on. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Very true. Hey what level winds cause the shredder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey what level winds cause the shredder ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: ratios? Grinder whatever these guys said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Nam definitely came back down to earth but surprisingly more uniform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Grinder whatever these guys said ahh gotcha. If I'm understanding correctly would be 500mb. You can see the main shortwave as it ejects through the Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley it just gets shredded apart. The spawning secondary low helps to blossom some precipitation but the shield just gets eroded away quickly. Overall, the degree of lift actually looks pretty meh outside of the initial WAA push. Even seems to be quite a bit of subsidence...almost like shortwave subsidence in a way with the initial shortwave energy passing east and approaching shortwave from the west (which even seems to help generate light stuff through the morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ratios? What level winds in atmosphere caused the de amplification of this formerly respectable (modeled) low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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