ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 GEM destroys BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: These early 0Z are modestly weaker overall. I don’t see how this can attain upper echelon status unless euro/eps continue to hammer a quicker secondary transfer with the addition of infusing the trailing sw to capture/stall. Gfs/cmc/icon are great, no doubt, but more of the standard NewEng 12-18” events away from the coast. I’ll hedge that way even though euro/eps found the snow first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEM destroys BOS. All the globals are lining up. Of course there will be run to run variance but this looks like as strong a signal as we’ve seen since the January 2022 blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see how this can attain upper echelon status unless euro/eps continue to hammer a quicker secondary transfer with the addition of infusing the trailing se to capture/stall. Gfs/cmc/icon are great, no doubt, but more of the standard NewEng 12-18” events away from the coast. I’ll hedge that way even though euro/eps found the snow first. This does have more upside if the Euro is right but even if the other models are right that would be a great result. 12-18 inches with another monster a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see how this can attain upper echelon status unless euro/eps continue to hammer a quicker secondary transfer with the addition of infusing the trailing se to capture/stall. Gfs/cmc/icon are great, no doubt, but more of the standard NewEng 12-18” events away from the coast. I’ll hedge that way even though euro/eps found the snow first. That is fair...could def see that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, George001 said: This does have more upside of the Euro is right but even if the other models are right that would be a great result. 12-18 inches with another monster a few days later. Yea, nothing to sneeze out. It would be pretty special to squeeze out two 12-18” events within 4-5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Gefs tick south, again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gefs tick south, again. Same with the Canadian mean and its members. Another south tick but fairly weaker with the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I remember when following events was fun....... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Childude645 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Was just thinking the same thing. Congrats MVY. What a winter for them.MVY ? Martha’s Vineyard?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Childude645 said: MVY ? Martha’s Vineyard? . Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Childude645 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Yeah.Cool, born & raised. I hope the temps can stay low for some decent accumulation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Well the day shift was a weenie fest. The night shift starts the step down to pedestrian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well the day shift was a weenie fest. The night shift starts the step down to pedestrian? Looks like the lead shortwave shoots out too quick, misses the better phasing we saw earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Hey at least there's something on offer, and the most likely 3-4 day error with these transfers is that they delay the energy pass, that can work both ways for outcomes. In this case (Feb 28-Mar 1) I think you want a fast energy transfer before the low gets past about Cleveland. I don't think there's much chance of an upper echelon type of storm but 6-10" looks feasible. The second one is too far off to do much more than hope, it has the right look also. March seems to be the month for these coastal transfer type storms, you hardly ever see them in other months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Looks like the lead shortwave shoots out too quick, misses the better phasing we saw earlier the difference between 6"-12" and 1'-2' still a nice long duration event verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Plenty of time for this to trend back into a monster blizzard ... or into a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Yea, significant step back on the Euro. Ensembles should follow suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 EPS also have lead energy escaping east giving a flatter solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, significant step back on the Euro. Ensembles should follow suite. Yup, much less impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, wxsniss said: EPS also have lead energy escaping east giving a flatter solution Euro often over phases, so that wouldn't suprise me. Bottom line is a significant event is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro often over phases, so that wouldn't suprise me. Bottom line is a significant event is likely. Hiccup or trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, jaf said: Hiccup or trend? I mean...its probably a trend away from 40"....but def a trend towards a major snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean...its probably a trend away from 40"....but def a trend towards a major snowfall. Anything less than 40" will be a letdown now. I was ready to go looking for my yard stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro often over phases, so that wouldn't suprise me. Bottom line is a significant event is likely. Agree, increasing confidence in our biggest event of the season for SNE (a pretty low bar). Blockbuster is definitely still on table, but there are many more paths to pedestrian as illustrated tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean...its probably a trend away from 40"....but def a trend towards a major snowfall. Feel like most of the board would be happy with a foot. Anything after that is just icing, of the cake variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 CMC looks the best at this point, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 12" is a good over/under. How much did EPS clown back off? At this range? practically noise. 18/00z for comparison at the same time frame bc 18z only goes out this far. Looks likes a tic south and a tic less snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: At this range? practically noise. 18/00z for comparison at the same time frame bc 18z only goes out this far. Looks likes a tic south and a tic less snowfall. Why are these totals lower than some of the other estimates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Why are these totals lower than some of the other estimates? It's a mean of 51 members...getting that to reflect several inches at this lead time is no small feat. Strong consensus for a significant event. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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