WxWatcher007 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think W CT is where it’s at in SNE for this one . Cut the State in 1/2 SW/NE and SW side looks good . I’m not sold the CCB gets going in any capacity for E SNE But maybe some are SW CT has found ways to squander good setups for years. I always worry about them. This is the time where I actually have to get serious. Will be doing our first map in two and a half months later today when I have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I'd be careful with the Nam. It can often be overamped beyond 48hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I feel like SW CT has had some decent setups? They had the January band in 2022 and then prior to the at some good setups in 20/21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like SW CT has had some decent setups? They had the January band in 2022 and then prior to the at some good setups in 20/21. No we have had a lot of good setups. I think the perception changed with the 14/15 season where the eastern areas started raking while we got a good amounts but less (i.e. 7 inches January 2015 while eastern areas had feet plus). We did great 2000 through 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like SW CT has had some decent setups? They had the January band in 2022 and then prior to the at some good setups in 20/21. You wouldn’t know it based on our immediate shoreline followers lol. Just now, EastonSN+ said: No we have had a lot of good setups. I think the perception changed with the 14/15 season where the eastern areas started raking while we got a good amounts but less (i.e. 7 inches January 2015 while eastern areas had feet plus). We did great 2000 through 2014. Agree. It’s really all relative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You wouldn’t know it based on our immediate shoreline followers lol. Agree. It’s really all relative. Yup. Also forgot to through in 17/18 and 20/21 which were amazing for WCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Still looks like a lock for an advisory snowfall nearly region wide. I'm skeptical we only see that though. That's been a relatively recent development and trend in the models. Still leaning toward widespread plowable. I haven't seen enough consistently to believe anything less yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup. Also forgot to through in 17/18 and 20/21 which were amazing for WCT. Right, but I wouldn’t say you guys squandered set ups. Whatever setups looked favorable for YOU guys I think worked out well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd be careful with the Nam. It can often be overamped beyond 48hrs. Everyone should know that the NAM isn't to be used as serious guidance at this time frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like SW CT has had some decent setups? They had the January band in 2022 and then prior to the at some good setups in 20/21. No doubt we have gotten some great events in the 8-16” range and over performed in many. Just missing the big ones that you guys have gotten out east. But no lack of the widespread 8-16” events we’ve had one every single year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: No doubt we have gotten some great events in the 8-16” range and over performed in many. Just missing the big ones that you guys have gotten out east. But no lack of the widespread 8-16” events we’ve had one every single year. Yeah I clarified what I said a couple posts above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: No doubt we have gotten some great events in the 8-16” range and over performed in many. Just missing the big ones that you guys have gotten out east. But no lack of the widespread 8-16” events we’ve had one every single year. We need a storm to loop SE of LI like 78/1888 lol So rare to get that done. Of course 1996/2006/2010/2013 were bulls eyes. However it seems like the SE of LI loop track is extremely rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Everyone should know that the NAM isn't to be used as serious guidance at this time frame but what it shows about a shortwave early in the run is relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: No doubt we have gotten some great events in the 8-16” range and over performed in many. Just missing the big ones that you guys have gotten out east. But no lack of the widespread 8-16” events we’ve had one every single year. Yea we’ve had our fair share of 8-16” events past 10 years but missed or busted on every 18-24” biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 NAM has been really bad the last two events for all of SNE. Just wanted to post a quick reminder about that. Still worthy of Tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Speaking of changes, will have to watch to see if a trend continues for lingering snows in NNE. GFS really slows down the exit and gets 1.50"< near MA/NH border. You know I mentioned this earlier in this thread ... that layout does not look like a typical coastal layout. That looks like an overrunning event. I mused at the time that it may actually be similar in layout to what just occurred, if perhaps along a more southerly axis. That's all still the case. I don't know if it's just symbolic, or if there is much actual veracity to that comparison. Interesting Man, I've frankly grown a bit weary of coverage for this winter ... I'm definitely ready for it go away. Unless there's something that can overcome this -PNA grip on our side of the hemisphere, I'm close to the bubble on tolerating this shit much more. There may be some hope - the MJO folks were intrigued in there last weekly publication. This current event may gut punch the Nina and serve as a kind trigger/inflection in its demise. Great! That helps us out for April But you didn't ask me that haha... No, but I think this system's parental/mid level mechanics were always real, but back whence this was more impressively the respective guidance ( or blends there in...) there were two scopes of uncertainty that I myself blundered. The first was... the S-SE warm wall is a semi-permanent artifact of the La Nina/-PNA. We've been in a very well coupled hemisphere since the 3 weeks around Xmas when it broke down and yielded that hybrid Nino look. Point is, it was not modeled to really go away prior to this thing getting injected through as it was back whence. My blunder is not supplying enough obvious recognition to the fact that moving a S/W up and over the top of a ridge arc supplies a -NVA term across all DPVA deltas along the way. We see this as "damping" effect in the cinema of the runs.. Here's what then really "doomed" this guy: "de" magnification ... that's the coup de gras, the 2nd blunder. The models were perhaps over amplified with the main S/W when it was D9 ( no shit!?). That's become a regular/reproducible observation going back several years actually... idiot. Compounding a perfunctory downward correction in kinematics with -NVA concept is a bit much. These 'objective speculations' I feel pretty strongly are more valid than just reaching for explanation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: WPC has the low a few hundred miles east of the Delmarva by Tuesday am for what it’s worth but snow probs for 4+ are pretty high and qpf for that period is .5-.75 for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd be careful with the Nam. It can often be overamped beyond 48hrs. Thanks Einstein. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know I mentioned this earlier in this thread ... that layout does not look like a typical coastal layout. That looks like an overrunning event. I mused at the time that it may actually be similar in layout to what just occurred, if perhaps along a more southerly axis. That's all still the case. I don't know if it's just symbolic, or if there is much actual veracity to that comparison. Man, I've frankly grown a bit weary of coverage for this winter ... I'm definitely ready for it go away. Unless there's something that can overcome this -PNA grip on our side of the hemisphere, I'm close to the bubble on tolerating this shit much more. But you didn't ask me that haha... No, but I think this system's parental/mid level mechanics were always real, but back whence this was more impressively the respective guidance ( or blends there in...) there were two scopes of uncertainty that I myself blundered. The first was... the S-SE warm wall is a semi-permanent artifact of the La Nina/-PNA. We've been in a very well coupled hemisphere since the 3 weeks around Xmas when it broke down and yielded that hybrid Nino look. Point is, it was not modeled to really go away prior to this thing getting injected through as it was back whence. My blunder is not supplying enough obvious recognition to the fact that moving a S/W up and over the top of a ridge arc supplies a -NVA term across all DPVA deltas along the way. We see this as "damping" effect in the cinema of the runs.. Here's what then really "doomed" this guy: "de" magnification ... that's the coup de gras. The models were perhaps over amplified with the main S/W when it was D9 ( no shit!?) ... idiot. Compounding a perfunctory downward correction in kinematics with -NVA concept is a bit much. These 'objective speculations' I feel pretty strongly are more valid than just reaching for explanation. Tip, do you have a lean in which way you would go for forecasting an overall snowfall swath across Sne right now? Gun to head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Rgem is also colder and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We need a storm to loop SE of LI like 78/1888 lol So rare to get that done. Of course 1996/2006/2010/2013 were bulls eyes. However it seems like the SE of LI loop track is extremely rare. Feb 2021 was close with the stalled low S of LI but it lacked a ccb. It was pretty much WAA then occluded snow showers for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12z RGEM is .75" qpf over CNH and SWME. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I still believe the prevailing issue is the shortwave over Manitoba. There’s theories on what would help bring back a stronger storm—why not just look at the earlier runs which were outputting such solutions? What was the biggest change? The late phasing of the primary, which causes it to hang on later, and diffusing chance of a clean phase with the coastal. To my mind if you dampen this feature, and the primary fizzles sooner, you can get a dynamic cyclogensis —even with weak UL forcing—to occur given the slow flow over the western Atlantic. This wouldn’t be great for everyone of course, but it would give much higher totals to SNE and northern Mid Atlantic. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem is also colder and weaker It also give me 2" of snow tonight. Tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 21 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: but what it shows about a shortwave early in the run is relevant. Of course it's worth looking at for trends, however from what I've seen of it i wouldn't pay too much attention past 36 hours, maybe 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Funny how people throw out literally every model. “Euro stinks” “GFS blows” “NAM and RGEM are terrible” “UK is awful model” so that leaves the Canadian as the only good model? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Yeah no thanks to that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Funny how people throw out literally every model. “Euro stinks” “GFS blows” “NAM and RGEM are terrible” “UK is awful model” so that leaves the Canadian as the only good model? Toss. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So N MA got more this past Thursday than it will from Mon/Tue system? I'm skeptical but that would be quite a remarkable turn of events if it happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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